After 35 years of republicans losing in Oregon’s elections, two politics professors at Oregon universities explained what they think is to blame for the party’s shortcomings and how Oregonians should process the changes coming from Measures 111 and 114.
Adjunct Politics Professor at Southern Oregon University (SOU) Dr. William Toombs is from Ontario, Ore. right next to the Idaho border in a majority Republican area.
He explained the division between the seven Oregon counties that voted majority Democrat, for Tina Kotek, and the 29 Oregon counties, including every county east of Bend, that voted majority Republican for Christine Drazan.
“I hate to use the term, but it’s a Civil War vibe,” Toombs said.
After the final tally following the Nov. 8th midterms, 47% of Oregon voters chose Kotek, 43.5% chose Drazan and 8.6% chose nonaffiliated candidate Betsy Johnson.
He explained the factors that made this election “ripe” for Republicans to have a good chance.
“Having an unpopular incumbent (Gov. Kate Brown). Having a focusing event like Covid-19 that had completely unpopular measures across the state,” Toombs said. “Then having Betsy Johnson as this alternative for moderate Democrats to give them a soft turn away from the Democratic Party without going straight into the GOP’s arms. I think that was something.”
It was something, but not enough to push Republicans over the top and buck the trend.
Toombs said Drazan coming up short in this election has a lot to do with the Republican Party’s struggles in the state.
“They [Republicans] need more candidates that are going to reach a broader base. You’re going to have to get a bit younger, you’re going to have to get more diverse,” Toombs said. “And find someone that’s going to be able to fundraise at a high level. When you’re dealing with the Democratic Party in Oregon, that’s going to be deep pockets and it will be very tough to overturn that.”
Five hours north of SOU, another politics professor explain his thoughts on the state’s midterms.
Jim Moore, a 1977 graduate of Medford High School, now teaching at Pacific University in Forest Grove explained the difference between the predicted “red wave” across the country of Republicans gaining ground and what really happened.
“I think what was missing from the prediction is that we as voters are much more partisan than we used to be,” Moore said. “Multnomah County, which has only 10% registered Republicans in the whole county, but that number of Republicans is more than the combined total of the 14 least populous counties in the state of Oregon. If you look at registered Republicans in those profoundly Republican counties.”
Moore made the point that in the gubernatorial election, one might see the 29 majority red counties in the state and wonder why Drazan wasn’t more successful. He emphasized the point about elections being determined by being successful in the most populous areas, not by gaining the majority vote in the most counties. He said that’s one of the areas Drazan missed the mark.
“I think Christine Drazan made the mistake that virtually every Republican makes,” Moore said. “She ignored the Portland area to try to get more Republicans to turn out and to try to get the unaffiliated voters, who also concentrate there, to cast their ballots for her.”
As far as the four measures on the Oregon ballot this midterm election, Moore said he was surprised by a couple of results.
Measure 111, the affordable healthcare measure, passed with 50.74% of voters in favor. Measure 114, the gun control measure, passed with 50.71% of voters in favor.
When you zoom in on voters’ decisions on Measure 114 in Southern Oregon, the results look drastically different. In Jackson County, 59.53% voted no, in Curry County 63.8% voted no, in Josephine County 69.84% voted no, in Klamath County 77.29% voted no, and in Lake County, 87.35% voted no.
Moore said he understands the culture of guns in Southern Oregon. He gave an example about kids leaving shotguns in their trucks at Medford High School so they could go hunting after the final bell rung.
He explained how Southern Oregonians can process Measure 114 with the majority voting against it.
“Here’s what to think about the rules. The rules actually look a lot like what the NRA (National Rifle Association) recommended before the 1970s,” Moore said. “The NRA in places like Medford even taught gun safety in the high schools as an after-school type of thing, it was a hunter’s organization. They wanted you to take classes. Registration was not a bad thing.”
Starting Dec. 8th, Measure 114 will require gun buyers to get a permit from local law enforcement. Applicants will need to be fingerprinted, pass a background check and undergo safety training. The initiative also institutes a ban on magazines that hold more than 10 rounds.
“If personal safety is your number one thing, then figure out if you feel safe,” Moore said. “Do you need more guns or not?”
Elaborating on the other state measure result he found surprising, Moore explained Measure 111 in his own words.
“All it does is it created in our Constitution a right to affordable healthcare,” he said. “Here’s what it does not do, it does not define what affordable is or even what healthcare is.”
Moore said he’s concerned this new measure won’t amount to much change.
“The legislature has a small history of ignoring these kinds of things. Two years ago, we the people of Oregon voted pretty strongly that we would put into the Constitution a clause that says it’s legal to limit campaign contributions (78.31% voting in favor of Measure 107). We said to the legislature, ‘you figure out what those limits are.’ And in the past two years, the legislature did exactly nothing to implement that."