'Degraded' Russian Troops Unlikely to Quickly Encircle Bakhmut: ISW

Recent Russian advancements into the city of Bakhmut are not a sign of Moscow's troops capturing the city anytime soon, according to the Institute for the Study of War (ISW).

The ISW released a report Monday, saying that while Russian forces had made "incremental gains" south of the strategic city, researchers "do not portend an imminent Russian encirclement of Bakhmut.

"Russian troops, in their current degraded state, are likely unable to be able to accomplish this task quickly," wrote the think tank.

Geolocated imagery shows that Russian troops did likely capture the village of Ozarianivka Sunday or Monday, reported ISW. The village is a shade more than nine miles southwest of Bakhmut. The report added that several Russian sources have claimed that its military also seized a handful of surrounding villages in the past few days, with the intent of encircling the city from the south and east. However, the ISW found no "open-source evidence" that supported these claims.

"Russian sources have notably propagated spurious claims regarding gains around Bakhmut as part of a continued information operation since October, and recent unsubstantiated territorial claims may be part of this continued information operation," read the report.

Russian President Vladimir Putin has targeted the city of Bakhmut in Ukraine's eastern Donbas region for months, with little to no success. Newsweek previously reported that capturing the city would allow Russia to launch artillery strikes on other key towns while simultaneously boosting military morale after a deflating few months.

Putin's efforts have been largely led by his private mercenary group referred to as Wagner. According to ISW, the group's financier Yevgeniy Prigozhin observed in October that the private military was only advancing around 100 to 200 meters a day, meaning Russia's recent "claimed advances" around Bakhmut are "unlikely to generate operational-level effects and certainly not quickly," read ISW's report.

Conditions in Bakhmut 'Hell on Earth'

The city has become a "destructive vortex" for both Russia and Ukraine's militaries, reported The New York Times, writing that both forces have suffered significant losses in battles for control. On Monday, the Times reported that over 50 wounded Ukrainian soldiers had come through Bakhmut's only military hospital by midday Friday, adding that Russian soldiers were "suffering far worse."

Conditions are only continuing to worsen for both sides as frigid temperatures start to set in for winter. On Friday, adviser to Ukraine's Minister of Internal Affairs Anton Gerashchenko shared a video on Twitter of Ukrainian soldiers "fighting for Ukrainian freedom" in Bakhmut, which showed troops lying in muddy trenches among pockets of melting snow. In parts of the compilation, soldiers also appear to be using duct tape or pieces of trash for makeshift shoes.

"While Ukrainian civilians experience problems with electricity, heat and network in most regions, our Defenders in Bakhmut are fighting for Ukrainian freedom in such conditions," Gerashchenko wrote.

Writer and board member for the Ukraine-based Anti-Corruption Action Center Olena Halushka also posted about the horrid Bakhmut conditions on her Twitter Sunday, posting photos of blood-stained hospital gurneys.

"#Bakhmut is now hell on earth," Halushka wrote. "Hundreds of wounded are reported daily."

Russian troops continue to fight low morale

The ISW added that Russian forces were experiencing worsening morale and hardships from inadequate training. A report from the Ukrainian Resistance Center on Monday said Russian troops' behavior had "worsened since the arrival ... from the Kherson withdrawal."

According to the center's report, Putin's military personnel are "looting, engaging in physical altercation with one another and raping locals at higher rates than before." Other reports from a Russian-language news outlet claim that nearly 280 Russian soldiers in the Donetsk region had been "imprisoned, threatened and psychologically tortured" after refusing to fight due to "insufficient medical and material support."

"Russian military failures continue to have significant domestic social impacts within Russia," added the ISW. "Russian families of mobilized service members continued to appeal to the Russian government to return their loved ones from the war in Ukraine and to compensate them for time served."

Newsweek hasreached out to Russia's foreign ministry and Ukraine's defense ministry for comment.