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With the three Thanksgiving games already in the books, 13 games remain in NFL Week 12 including the Monday nighter between the Steelers and Colts. This week’s ATS picks start with the early window on Sunday with a battle between two AFC championship hopefuls.
Pick #1: Bengals vs Titans (+1); over/under 42.5
A rematch from last season’s AFC Divisional Round, the Cincinnati Bengals (6-4, 3-3 away) visit the Tennessee Titans (7-3, 3-1 home) at 1:00 pm ET, but this time the visitors enter as betting favorites.
With QB Ryan Tannehill banged up for much of the year - and still feeling the effects of an ankle injury as Week 12 approaches - oddsmakers have been down on the Titans, despite Tennessee earning the #1 seed in the AFC last year.
Yet Tennessee has still managed to piece together an impressive 7-3 record, including winning six of the past seven and three in a row at home. And this week, the Bengals are dealing with the more significant injuries this week. Starting running back Joe Mixon is out with a concussion, while WR1 Ja’Marr Chase is questionable with a hip injury that’s kept him out since late October. Those injuries didn’t slow down the CIncy offense last week - a 37-30 road win at division-rival Pittsburgh - but they are going to catch up with the Bengals sooner rather than later.
Defensively, the Titans should have the upper hand on Cincinnati. Tennessee is tied for 10th in the league in sacks with 30, while the Bengals are in the bottom five with just 16 on the year. The Titans are also significantly better against the run, holding opponents to just 82.2 yards per game on the ground (2nd-best) and 3.9 yards per carry (3rd-best).
Cincinnati’s rush defense is midpack in both categories, giving up 117 yards per game at 4.4 yards per carry. Against Derrick Henry and Tennessee’s run-heavy attack, Cincy’s rush defense could be exposed. Without Mixon and, possibly, without Chase as well, the Bengals will have a difficult time answering.
Tennessee, already 8-2 ATS on the season, wins this playoff rematch.
Pick: Titans +1 (-110)
Pick #2: Steelers vs Colts (-2.5); over/under 39.0
After going 9-8 last season and narrowly missing the playoffs, the 2022 Indianapolis Colts (4-6-1, 2-3 home) have been a major disappointment. They went out and procured QB Matt Ryan to make a serious run at, if not the Super Bowl, the AFC South title at the very least. But that’s already out of reach, sitting three games back of Tennessee with just six to play.
At the same time, the last couple weeks have been encouraging for the Colts. They took down the Raiders (25-20) in Week 10 and suffered a heartbreaking 17-16 last-minute loss to the NFL-leading Eagles in Week 11. The Colts held a 13-3 lead entering the 4th quarter.
This week, the spiraling Steelers (3-7, 1-4 away) come to Lucas Oil Stadium amid a 1-3 skid. Not only is Pittsburgh tied for the second-worst record in the AFC, they have the single-worst point differential in the entire NFL (-74). Even with a 30-point outburst against the Bengals last week, the offense is still averaging just 17 points per game. The once-vaunted defense has given up at least 35 points in three of its past six and is 26th overall in scoring defense at 24.4 PPG.
Rookie QB Kenny Pickett is struggling mightily with turnovers, tossing eight picks in his first 237 pass attempts, with just three touchdowns to show for it.
Ryan and the Colts keep their season alive with a home win.
Pick: Colts -2.5 (-110)
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