The Las Vegas Raiders (3-7) visit the Seattle Seahawks (6-4) on Sunday. Kickoff is scheduled for 4:05 pm ET. Below we continue our NFL odds series with a Raiders-Seahawks prediction and pick.
Las Vegas has lost three of their last four games and sits three games back from the AFC Wild Card. The Raiders are 4-6 against the spread. Five of their ten games have gone over, while one pushed. They're coming off a 22-16 overtime victory over the Broncos.
Seattle has won four of their last five games and is up half a game in the NFC Wild Card. The Seahawks are 6-4 against the spread while 50% of their games have gone under. They're coming off a bye but most recently lost to the Buccaneers in Germany 21-16.
Here are the Raiders-Seahawks NFL odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
NFL Odds: Raiders-Seahawks Odds
Las Vegas Raiders: +3.5 (-106)
Seattle Seahawks: -3.5 (-114)
Over: 47.5 (-110)
Under: 47.5 (-110)
Why The Raiders Could Cover The Spread
Las Vegas has vastly underperformed compared to expectations. After being knocked out of the playoffs by the AFC Champion Bengals, Vegas added All-Pro wide receiver Davante Adams and were a trendy sleeper pick. That has not come to fruition. The Raiders have been plagued by a defense that allows over 370 yards per game (27th in the NFL). They have allowed the ninth-most points in the league while holding a negative turnover differential.
If Vegas is going to cover they are going to need quarterback Derek Carr and Davante Adams to continue their strong play of late. Over the last three weeks, the two have connected for 26 receptions, 413 yards, and five touchdowns. This just continues an ongoing trend of excellence between the former college teammates. Adams ranks in the top 10 in nearly every receiving category, amassing 64 receptions (eighth) for 925 yards (fourth) and 10 touchdowns (second). Carr has been at his best when targeting Adams but is having a fine individual season himself. For the season, Carr has thrown for 2,435 yards and 15 touchdowns while completing 62% of his passes.
Seattle's defense has played much better as of late but they are still very vulnerable against the run. Luckily for Raiders backers, Vegas has one of the league's best backs in Josh Jacobs. Jacobs is in the midst of a career year. He ranks third in the NFL in yards (930) and fifth in touchdowns (7). He's done so while totting the rock the third most times in the league and averaging an efficient 5.1 yards per carry. Jacobs is also coming off his best game in over a month. In their win over the Broncos, he had 109 yards on the ground while contributing in the passing game as well with 51 yards receiving. The Seahawks allowed 161 rushing yards to the Buccaneers in their most recent game – something worth considering when making a Raiders-Seahawks prediction.
Why The Seahawks Could Cover The Spread
Seattle, despite being firmly in the playoff hunt, continues to be disrespected by oddsmakers. Going up against a 3-7 team at home and only being favored by 3.5 should just add more fuel to the motivational fire of Seahawks coach Pete Carrol. Although they lost a tight Germany game to the Bucs, the Seahawks had won four straight games prior and will enter Week 12 having had two weeks to prepare. Seattle is a well-coached team that is fifth in turnover differential and has a top-five offense. They have been steadily improving on defense as they haven't given up more than 23 points since week five.
Seattle is fifth in the NFL in scoring and 11th in total offense. They do a good job taking care of the ball and have a great balance of run and pass. Quarterback Geno Smith is a favorite for the league's Comeback Player of the Year award given his strong play. Smith is top ten in nearly every quarterback statistic this season – notably having thrown for 2,474 yards (seventh), 17 touchdowns (sixth), and just four interceptions (sixth). Smith also leads the league in completion percentage at 72.8%. He got a great deal of production from receivers DK Metcalf (48 receptions for 581 yards) and Tyler Lockett (54 receptions for 640 yards) but the real story lies with his running back.
Rookie Ken Walker III has been one of the most effective runners in the league since taking over for Rashaad Penny. He averaged 88 yards per game over his last six games while scoring seven touchdowns. Vegas is in the bottom half of the league in rush defense, allowing 123 yards per game. Walker is in a nice spot to continue his strong rookie season.
Final Raiders-Seahawks Prediction & Pick
Seattle is a playoff-caliber team and Vegas isn't. This line should be closer to six than four so we're rolling with the home favorites here.
Final Raiders-Seahawks Prediction & Pick: Seattle Seahawks -3.5 (-114)
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