Tampa Bay Rays Latest Team Showing Interest in A's Sean Murphy

The list of teams that have expressed interest in Sean Murphy is seemingly growing by the day, with the Tampa Bay Rays reportedly being the latest team looking to upgrade behind the dish. 

There has been a lot of talk about just how valuable Sean Murphy is as a trade chip, but with three years of control left and a projected salary of $3.5MM for 2023, he would be an excellent fit for the Rays.

Tampa had some issues at catcher in 2022, and while they ranked 15th in fWAR at the position, their backstops combined to hit .228 with a .248 on-base percentage. Their best catcher was actually Christian Bethancourt, whom they acquired from the A's in early July for minor league pitcher Christian Fernandez, and outfielder Cal Stevenson. 

Bethancourt accounted for 1.2 of the Rays' 1.4 cumulative fWAR with once top-prospect Francisco Mejia accounting for the remainder. Neither catcher had a walk rate above 2.4%, so although Mejia hit .242 and Bethancourt batted .255, their inability to draw walks left them with OBPs of .264 and .265. 

Sean Murphy represents a way for them to make major improvement at a position they could use one, and would also not require a major financial investment. 

So what could a trade look like? 

As we have done with other trade scenarios, we'll be looking for one player on the big league roster, one in the high minors, and one in the low minors, since that is a formula the A's have used in the past for deals like this. 

There are two big-league pieces that could intrigue the A's here. The first is 24-year-old Vidan Bruján, a switch-hitting utility bat with blazing speed. He was the Rays #2 prospect a year ago, but hasn't hit much at the big league level, batting just .162 with a .228 OBP in 162 plate appearances in 2022. He could be like Cristian Pache, a post-hype prospect that has struggled in a taste of the big leagues that the A's take a chance on.

Bruján only struck out 22.8% of the time last season, so that could be a sign of him trending in the right direction after posting a 30.8% rate in 2021. The one big drawback from an A's perspective is that he is out of options, like Pache. Taking him would be a bit of a risk, but also represents a fairly high ceiling. 

The other big leaguer that the A's could be interested in would be 24-year-old first baseman Jonathan Aranda. He hasn't had as much time in the big leagues, and he was ranked as Tampa's #30 prospect on MLB Pipeline a year ago, but in 87 plate appearances he hit .192 with a .272 OBP, a 9.2% walk rate, and a 26.4% strikeout rate. He'd been posting sub-20% strikeout rates in the minors up until 2022, so that rate should decline a bit as he gets more comfortable. 

After the canceled 2020 season, Aranda returned to High-A and hit .351 in 21 games before being bumped up to Double-A, where he proceeded to hit .325 in 79 games. In 104 Triple-A games this past season he hit .318 with 18 homers and a .394 OBP. There is some upside here, and if the A's decide to trade with Tampa instead of the White Sox, Aranda could be the Andrew Vaughn-type piece they're looking for. He also has two options remaining, doesn't become eligible for arbitration until after the 2025 campaign (Vaughn is eligible after 2023), and wouldn't hit free agency until after 2028. 

Whether the Rays would be willing to move Aranda is another story, as they've already traded Ji-Man Choi to Pittsburgh, leaving Issac Paredes, Yandy Díaz, and Harold Ramírez as the first basemen left on their depth chart. 

Another first base option for the A's to consider would be Rays #4 prospect Kyle Manzardo, who also doesn't strike out (15.6% in 30 Double-A games), and has shown more power, cranking 22 bombs combined between High-A and Double-A. He also hit a combined .327 with a .426 on-base. His glove may lag behind his bat, but Pipeline says his floor is a .290 hitter with 20 home pop. That's not a bad starting point. 

The A's could likely take their pick between Manzardo and Aranda if they're compelled to add a first baseman to the deal. Manzardo is just 22, and also swings it from the left side. FanGraphs has Aranda ranked fifth and Manzardo ranked sixth in the Rays system, and 72nd and 73rd in all of baseball. 

Mason Montgomery, the Rays #5 prospect (Pipeline), is a lefty starter that could be ready for his Triple-A debut in 2023. He split time between High-A and Double-A in 2022, combining for a 2.10 ERA across 27 starts and 124 innings. He racked up 171 strikeouts in that time, opponents hit just .196 against him, and he had a 1.06 WHIP.

Montgomery's strikeout rate sat at 15.24 K/9 in High-A to go along with a 3.49 BB/9, and while his strikeout rate took a big dip down to 8.78 per nine, his walk rate also went down to 2.65, which is an encouraging sign. He sits 90-94 with his fastball, and projects as a number four or five starter down the line. He has three solid pitches, though none are elite, and he can throw strikes. He's a pretty safe bet to at least be a contributor in the future. 

FanGraphs has Junior Caminero ranked as the #4 prospect in the Rays system and 60th in baseball, while MLB Pipeline has him #17 in the system before their update ahead of the 2023 campaign. He was signed out of the Dominican Republic in 2019, but is still just 19 years old and is listed as a third baseman. 

He was acquired by Tampa from Cleveland during last off-season's 40-man roster crunch and his main tool is his bat speed and the power that comes along with it. FanGraphs says he swings with "bloodthirsty effort," which is an amazing way to get people excited about a prospect. They also say that his swing decisions will end up determining what kind of a player he becomes against more mature pitching. "His power potential gives him a big ceiling if indeed he has a good feel for the zone." 

So a trade of Caminero, Aranda/Manzardo, and Montgomery, and maybe one more could get the deal done. Baseball Trade Values doesn't have high valuations for Caminero or Montgomery, just 3.3 and 5, but two top 100 prospects would be a pretty solid return for Sean Murphy. 

Aranda and Manzardo have solid bat-to-ball skills and would be the safer bets, while Caminero has a lot of developing to do but he could also be a dynamic bat. Montgomery could be a dependable arm for the A's, and a team can never have too many. Oakland could probably get away with asking for one more arm in this deal, or taking on a player like Bruján that is out of options and would help Tampa's 40-man crunch in the future.