In June in Tennessee, he asked a crowd, “Would anyone like me to run for president?” Then, in July, in Nevada, he remarked, “We have a president who ran twice, won twice, and maybe has to do it a third time. Can you believe it?”
Earlier this month in Pennsylvania, he vowed that “most importantly, in 2024 we will reclaim our magnificent White House.”
Donald Trump — former US President and architect of the big lie that he was robbed of victory by voter fraudsters in the 2020 election — is now finding new political utility in the big banter.
For more than a year, he’s tiptoed to the line to declare his candidacy for the White House in 2024, but never quite crossed it. It’s a rare display of self-discipline from a man notorious for saying the quiet part out loud.
He’s an attention whore and it always has to be about DonaldKurt Bardella
It’s also a strategy that brings benefits. The timidity of his intentions ensures a steady stream of coverage of his rallies and leaves potential Republican key competitors in the dark. He avoids conflict with party leaders who fear an official Trump candidacy would overshadow their midterm campaign. And money continues to flow to his Save America political action committee, which has raised more than $100 million since its inception after the 2020 election.
“He’s an attention whore and everything always has to revolve around Donald,” said Democratic National Committee adviser Kurt Bardella. “He has to make himself the center of the universe, so he goes out there and plays that little flirtatious ‘Will he, won’t he?’ card and it’s just designed to keep this conversation going.
“It’s also supposed to be trying to keep its potential competitors like Ron DeSantis or Mike Pence or Mike Pompeo at bay.”
When Trump suffered a crushing defeat by Joe Biden in the 2020 race, many observers expected him to follow the lead of previous single-term presidents like Jimmy Carter and George HW Bush: He accepts that his political career is over and considers a presidential library museum.
But Trump never did anything by the book. He spread the “big lie” that culminated in his supporters’ deadly attack on the Capitol on January 6, 2021. Six months later, he resumed his tumultuous campaign rallies with an event in Ohio, and since then he has held another 20 in locations including Alaska, Florida, Pennsylvania, Texas and Wyoming.
Supporters have rallied around each of them in anticipation that this could be the day Trump declares he is making a major political comeback and running for president again. He’ll inevitably drop a hint or two along those lines, generating headlines that he’s “floating” or “poking” a run, but he never makes it explicit.
Donald Trump delivers the keynote address at the annual Faith and Freedom Coalition conference in Nashville, Tennessee in June. Photo: Seth Herald/Getty Images
The closest he came was not an admiring rally, but when he was hassled by a New York Magazine journalist, which would influence his decision. Trump replied: “Well, in my opinion, I’ve already made that decision, so nothing else matters. In my own mind I have already made that decision.”
But one factor might make him pause. If and when Trump officially declares it, he will trigger Federal Election Commission requirements regarding financial disclosures and limits on how much money he can collect from individual donors. Ultimately, the 76-year-old’s reluctance may be due more to financial than political expediency.
Henry Olsen of the Ethics and Public Policy Center think-tank in Washington said: “It’s a matter of federal law: as soon as you say you’re a presidential candidate, certain attachments are made about what you can and can’t spend money on and in Reference to all organized committees.”
For this reason, candidates typically announce an “enquiry” rather than a “campaign” committee, added Olsen, a senior fellow at his organization.
He can be disciplined when he thinks it’s in his best interest to be disciplined, and he is now, Henry Olsen
“Presumably, Trump has been briefed enough that he knows he won’t be crossing that line far enough to give people a chance to argue that he’s now a candidate, and that means he’s doing this or that can’t do or the other with their money.”
Though Trump often revels in his reputation for being undisciplined, Olsen said: “He can be disciplined if he thinks it’s in his best interest to be disciplined, and he is doing so now.”
The same financial rules would apply to any potential Republican main challenger, making official statements from them similarly unlikely. The candidates include Florida Gov. DeSantis, former Vice President Pence, Virginia Gov. Glenn Youngkin, and Senators Tom Cotton of Arkansas, Ted Cruz of Texas, Rick Scott of Florida and Tim Scott of South Carolina.
Bardella, a former Republican congressional aide, added, “Even though Trump now knows he won’t be running, he will make it seem like he is while he can because that keeps him at the forefront of the conversation.” The moment he wouldn’t run, the attention would immediately turn to the others and he obviously wants to avoid that as much as possible.
It is believed that leftist Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis and former Vice President Mike Pence are both considering running for the 2024 Republican presidential nomination. Photo: Chris O’Meara/AP
“The only thing we know about Donald Trump is that he doesn’t want to share the limelight with anyone and has in the past fired people in his orbit who flew too close to the sun – like Steve Bannon.”
The big joke takes place against the background of several criminal investigations against Trump and his associates. The Justice Department is investigating his possession of classified material — reportedly including information about a foreign country’s nuclear capabilities — at his home in Mar-a-Lago, Florida.
The FBI raid of Mar-a-Lago had a rallying effect on Trump supporters, prompting a flood of donations. But the gravity of the case, combined with the damaging revelations by the January 6 congressional committee, have Republicans worried that Trump’s looming presence could dashed their hopes in November’s midterm elections, shaking up Democrats and scaring off moderates.
He mistakenly believes that being a formal candidate will somehow protect him from legal charges. It won’t be Larry Sabato
Biden last week began calling Trump and “Maga Republicans” a fundamental threat to democracy. According to an NPR/PBS NewsHour/Marist poll, two in three independent voters say they don’t want Trump to run in 2024.
However, it is possible that should Trump’s legal dangers reach a critical point of no return, it will spur him to declare his candidacy and falsely claim from his supporters that he is a victim of politically motivated persecution.
University of Virginia Center for Policy director Larry Sabato said: “He mistakenly believes that if he’s a formal candidate, that will somehow protect him from legal charges. It will not. We’ve had a fair number of candidates get into legal trouble in American history, so I don’t know why he thinks that. Someone probably said something to him once and he never let it go.”
But Sabato also admitted, “Nobody knows. It’s very likely that he will walk again, but I see scenarios where he wouldn’t. He said himself, let’s see how my health is doing. He wasn’t on the best diet in the world and doesn’t seem to be in the best shape to me.”
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