Sean Manaea
Age: 30 (2/1/1992)
B/T: R/L
2022 Traditional Stats: 28 GS, 8-9 W-L, 158.0 IP, 4.96 ERA, 1.297 WHIP, 156 SO, 50 BB
2022 Advanced Stats: 75 ERA+, 4.53 FIP, 23.2 SO%, 7.5 BB%, -0.9 bWAR
Rundown
Had it not been for a poor 2022 season, Sean Manaea might have been considered one of the standout free-agent targets of this class. Unfortunately for him, this poor season has caused him to blend in with the rest of the pitchers below the elites such as Jacob deGrom and Carlos Rodón. Despite this, Manaea’s track record is good enough to warrant interest from plenty of MLB teams this offseason.
Manaea was drafted with the 34th pick in the 2013 MLB Draft by the Kansas City Royals after great performances in the Cape Cod Baseball League and at his alma mater, Indiana State. After a productive yet injury-plagued stint in the Royals’ farm system, Manaea was sent as part of a trade for Ben Zobrist to the Oakland Athletics. He continued to rise through the minor league ranks until he was promoted to the Major League team at the age of 24.
In his rookie season in 2016, Manaea proved to be a rare bright spot on a 69-93 Oakland team, putting up a 3.86 ERA in 144 2/3 innings pitched. He remained a consistent presence in the Oakland rotation for five more years, displaying pitching ability and durability that, especially for a left-handed pitcher, would be welcome in any team’s rotation. Through the 2021 season, Manaea had put up a 3.86 ERA in 727 innings pitched for his career in Oakland.
But with the Oakland A’s looking to tear the team down and rebuild, Manaea became expendable. It was clear that he was likely to be traded prior to the 2022 season. His teammate Chris Bassitt had already been traded to the Mets. Then, just before Opening Day, Manaea was traded to the San Diego Padres in exchange for prospects. He was set to join arguably the league’s deepest and best rotation and show his worth on a team expecting to make a deep playoff run.
Manaea’s 2022 season was disappointing, however. Although he started almost every game he appeared in, this season marked the first time since his rookie year he appeared in any game as a reliever. He was still able to pitch 158.0 innings. but he put up a staggering 4.96 ERA which looks like an outlier when compared to his other stats across full seasons. Manaea struggled even more in the postseason. Though he only threw 1 1/3 innings, he surrendered five earned runs in an NLCS loss to the Philadelphia Phillies.
Contract
Sean Manaea is going to be 31 at the start of the 2023 season. Whether his 2022 season was a product of aging or just a fluke will have to be determined by teams this offseason. Spotrac.com estimates Manaea will warrant a four-year contract for $11.9 million a year, or a total of $47.9 million across that time period. This contract would make Manaea a top-40 pitcher in terms of salary, right between Seattle’s Luis Castillo and San Francisco’s Anthony DeSclafani.
If he had become a free agent after the 2021 season, Manaea would definitely be a more attractive free agent option and potentially make much more than this projection. Unfortunately for him, he may have to settle for a lower salary because of his poor 2022 performance and the crowded pitching free agent class he finds himself in.
Recommendation
As the Mets suddenly have a porous rotation with only two of last year’s starters set to return for now, Manaea should absolutely be on the Mets’ radar. The Mets’ rotation in recent years has been plagued by injury, and Manaea has proven to be a durable and reliable pitching option throughout his career. And for approximately $12 million per year, he is absolutely in the price range of a team willing to spend big.
The Mets could also use Manaea’s lefty arm. David Peterson stepped up in a big way last year but has still been inconsistent in his career. Manaea would be a lefty presence who excels at limiting lefty batters, who have hit .210/.264/.337/.601 against him in his career. Perhaps this could allow Peterson to transition to the bullpen full-time, where his career ERA as a reliever (2.89) is far better than his career ERA as a starter (4.38).
With Max Scherzer and Carlos Carrasco confirmed back for the 2023 season and the Mets still in the market for more starting pitching, Manaea would likely serve as a middle or back-end of the rotation starter if he signs with the Mets for the 2023 season. Knowing that money won’t limit the Mets this offseason, the Mets should absolutely pursue Sean Manaea and hope he can return to pre-2022 form.
