Luckett's Locks: Elite Weekend

Rivalry weekend has arrived and that means it’s the final go-round for Luckett’s Locks. That’s probably a good thing.

It’s been a slog of a season for our against-the-spread (ATS) picks and that continued in Week 12 with a 2-4 finish. We were a two-point conversion away from Florida-Vanderbilt going over, saw Iowa State ruin numerous scoring opportunities, and were on the wrong side in South Carolina’s huge upset win.

Our season mark has fallen to 28-43-1 as this has been a brutal season. But we’re still going to take some swings.

We’ve taken a deep dive into the Week 13 board and have found six more plays for Thanksgiving weekend. Favorites are everywhere. This is your opportunity to fade as we try to avoid all those losing tickets again.

Tulsa at Cincinnati (-1)

Tulane is having an all-time season in year seven under Willie Fritz as the Green Wave is just one win away from hosting the American Athletic Conference championship. Tulane (9-2, 6-1) has a well-rounded offense and a defense that has played well in situational football.

Speaking of hosting the conference championship game, Cincinnati is a home win on Black Friday away from doing just that at Nippert Stadium for the third year in a row. The Bearcats again have a top-20 defense but the offense has severely labored with a rushing offense that ranks No. 130 in rushing success rate.

Tulane has had a great season, but this is a tough draw. Cincinnati is very good at home and will be able to protect their house behind a dominant defensive performance and just enough offense.

Let’s take the small home favorite as Luke Fickell gets one step closer to winning another conference crown.

NC State at North Carolina (-6.5)

NC State entered this season with high expectations and stayed in the top 25 for most of the year, but the wheels officially fell off the last two weeks. The Wolfpack took tough division losses to Boston College and Louisville as the offense simply cannot score points without quarterback Devin Leary. The Wolfpack ranks No. 109 in points per drive as this group does nothing well. It’s a disappointing development as the NC State defense ranks No. 13 in success rate and No. 23 in points per drive.

North Carolina will be making the trip to Charlotte to play Clemson in the ACC title game next week, but last week’s loss caught many by surprise. The Heels dropped a home game to Georgia Tech as a 21.5-point favorite and officially took itself out of the playoff race after a huge road win against Wake Forest. Star quarterback Drake Maye had his worst game of the season and that led to the loss. UNC is very bad on defense and cannot afford many off days from its offense.

This feels like a good spot to back North Carolina after last week’s poor offensive effort. Maye should bounce back, and NC State will not have the ammo to keep up even when facing a porous North Carolina defense.

Let’s roll with the home favorite.

Michigan at Ohio State (-8)

For the first time in his tenure at Michigan, Jim Harbaugh has the Wolverines at 11-0 entering The Game. Michigan has gotten to this point by riding an elite rushing attack (No. 6 in rush success rate, No. 14 in rush EPA) with another dominant defense (No. 2 in EPA, No. 5 in success rate). However, there are some legitimate injury concerns entering Saturday as star tailback Blake Corum (1,467 rushing yards, 18 touchdowns) is banged up.

An easy argument can be made that Ohio State has the best offense in college football. The Buckeyes rank No. 4 in EPA, No. 5 in success rate, and No. 3 in points per drive. C.J. Stroud is a Heisman Trophy contender at quarterback, and Marvin Harrison Jr. (65 receptions, 1,037 yards, 11 touchdowns) might be the best receiver in college football. However, the secret sauce is with new defensive coordinator Jim Knowles who has produced a top-five defense in his first year in Columbus.

Ohio State is at home and has had a long time to stew on last year’s loss to Michigan. The Buckeyes have the better quarterback and a defense that can easily match up with Michigan’s. Meanwhile, the Wolverines could have some issues running the football with their injuries. That all adds up to a double-digit win by Ohio State in a statement opportunity.

Lay the points with the home favorite.

Georgia Tech at Georgia Under 49

Georgia Tech is currently one of the jobs open on the market, but interim head coach Brent Key is making a strong run at keeping the gig full-time. The Jackets are 4-3 since the offensive line coach took over with road wins over North Carolina, Pittsburgh, and Virginia Tech. Georgia Tech is a win from bowl eligibility despite having an offense that ranks No. 109 in EPA, No. 119 in offensive success rate, and No. 118 in points per drive.

Over in Athens, the Bulldogs are one win away from their second consecutive undefeated regular season under Kirby Smart. Georgia is an efficiency machine on offense that always stays ahead of the chains but has issues creating explosive plays. Once again, the defense is dominant.

Georgia might have the No. 1 defense in college football, and Georgia Tech’s offense is very bad. The Yellow Jackets have scored a touchdown or less in three of their last four meetings with UGA. Another woeful offensive performance is coming in Week 13.

There will be a lot of Georgia Tech punts in this year’s version of Clean, Old-Fashioned Hate while Georgia will get run-heavy on offense to get out of here and move to next week’s clash with LSU for an SEC title in Atlanta.

The under is a combined 15-6-1 in Georgia/Georgia Tech games this season. It gets a 16th cover on Saturday afternoon.

Wake Forest (-3.5) at Duke

The 2022 season has been a disappointment for Wake Forest after a 6-1 start and a top-10 ranking was ruined by three consecutive ACC losses. The passing game is again a strength in Winston-Salem with Sam Hartman running the show as the Deacs rank No. 12 in passing success rate, but the defense has been woeful ranking No. 98 in points per drive.

Duke has been the biggest surprise in the ACC this season with first-year head coach Mike Elko. The Blue Devils enter Saturday at 7-4 (4-3) and are heading back to the postseason for the first time since 2018. Under offensive coordinator Kevin Johns, Duke has been a top-30 offense powered by a rushing attack that ranks No. 24 in yards per rush (5.1). Meanwhile, the defense has been much better than expected. Strong special teams are playing a critical role as the Blue Devils rank No. 5 in field position. Complementary football has had a lot to do with Duke’s success.

If you’re looking for any strength with the Wake Forest defense it is limiting the run, and that should make an impact on Saturday. Meanwhile, the Blue Devils rank No. 92 in defensive passing success rate and No. 93 in defensive passing EPA. That gives the road team a great matchup.

This is a good spot and matchup for Wake Forest. Let’s lay the small number with the road favorite.

Best Bet: LSU (-10) at Texas A&M

It did not take long for LSU to return to prominence under Brian Kelly. In year one, the Tigers claimed the program’s second SEC West title in four seasons. LSU got to this point by riding an efficient offense (No. 18 in success rate) with great balance, and a defense that is outstanding at creating scoring opportunity stops at a high volume. A showdown awaits with Georgia after Saturday night’s game at Kyle Field.

As much as LSU overachieved this season, Texas A&M underachieved. Jimbo Fisher’s team is not going to the postseason and is 60 minutes away from a 4-8 (1-7) finish. The Aggies are awful on offense (No. 112 in offensive EPA) as there has been a revolving door at quarterback. The defense has been a strength but stopping the run has been an issue.

These are two teams heading in opposite directions at the moment. LSU is chomping at the bit to take a swing at Georgia and A&M seems ready for this season to be over. That plays out on Saturday.

The Tigers get their fifth cover in six games on Saturday with a double-digit road win.