Thanksgiving weekend weather: Alabama faces strong storms on Saturday

There will be a Level 1 out of 5 risk for severe weather in southwest Alabama (the areas in dark green) on Saturday, which means that isolated severe storms will be possible. The rest of the state could see rain and a storm or two as well.
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Active weather is expected through the Thanksgiving holiday weekend -- including the possibility of a few strong storms on Saturday.

NOAA’s Storm Prediction Center has added a Level 1 out of 5 risk for severe weather for Saturday for part of southwest Alabama.

A Level 1 risk is marginal and means that isolated severe storms will be possible.

Rain chances will increase today (Thanksgiving Day) across Alabama, and rainy conditions are expected for much of the state on Friday. A thunderstorm or two will be possible, but no severe weather is expected today and Friday, according to the National Weather Service.

But that could change on Saturday, when another weather system will move into the region.

The Storm Prediction Center said isolated strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible Saturday afternoon into the overnight hours for southwest Alabama, including the Mobile area. The strongest storms could bring damaging wind gusts and “perhaps a tornado will be possible with this activity,” forecasters said.

Hopefully the tornado potential won’t materialize, but the days around Thanksgiving have been historically busy when it comes to tornadoes in Alabama.

In fact, Alabama is No. 1 in the nation in the number of Thanksgiving week tornadoes, according to the weather service.

From 1950 through 2019 there have been 153 tornadoes in the state during the Nov. 20-30 time frame, according to the weather service.

Alabama tops the list when it comes to the number of tornadoes around Thanksgiving.

That’s way more than other tornado-prone states, including No. 2, Mississippi (124), and No. 3, Texas (104).

The other states that round out the top eight are Louisiana (99), Arkansas (81), Georgia (48), Kansas (32) and Florida (29).

Why so many? November is typically a big part of Alabama’s so-called “secondary” severe weather season, which runs through the winter and right up to the spring months.

In fact, according to the weather service, November is the third-busiest month for tornadoes in Alabama when looking at data from 1950 through 2021.

November has historically been Alabama's third-busiest month for tornadoes.

The most tornadoes have come April, thanks in large part to the 2011 super outbreak. From 1950-2021 there have been 555 confirmed tornadoes in April. The second-busiest month is March with 368. Then comes November with 280, according to weather service data.

The weather across Alabama will begin to improve by Sunday, and drier weather is expected for the first part of next week. However, forecasters will be watching trends mid-week, when another storm system could bring the possibility of rain and storms back to the state.

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