Sprinkles in area by noon Thursday; next precipitation system—the holiday weekend’s rainiest— is not expected to arrive until Saturday night
A second RAIN GENERATING SYSTEM heads into the area Saturday night and Sunday. Our models have slowed its arrival which NOW means daytime Saturday is to remain rain-free. Wet weather arrives by late Saturday night through a good chunk of Sunday as rain and strengthening winds ride into the area.
Averaging across a group of model solutions puts close to 0.40″ of rain down in the city with higher amounts south. Any shift in the storm track in coming days may well impact the rain amounts.
The European Centre’s model is most aggressive with that system in terms of wind. The track of the low pressure takes the storm center from central Illinois into northwest Indiana which suggest a period of gusty “NE” winds is to lock in across Chicago later Saturday night into Sunday–enough to churn Lake Michigan, which one would think would be white-capped as we join the day Sunday. European model peak weak guidance puts 40 mph gusts into the Chicago shoreline then.