10 free agents who could bounce back in 2023

Not everyone can be Aaron Judge.

After spurning a seven-year, $213.5 million extension prior to the 2022 season, Judge went out and put together an incredible season that should end with an MVP trophy. But for every Judge, there’s a list of players who stumble.

So while Judge is heading into free agency on the back of a historic season, it’s worth remembering that many other players didn't enjoy an illustrious walk year. But just because a player has a depressed free-agent market doesn’t mean that they won’t find success. In 2021, Robbie Ray turned a one-year contract with the Blue Jays into an AL Cy Young Award and a subsequent nine-figure contract with the Mariners, while last year Matt Carpenter turned a Minor League contract into a resurgent season.

With those examples in mind, here are 10 free agents who are coming off seasons blemished by underperformance or injury but who could prove to be productive bargains in 2023.

Joey Gallo, OF, NYY/LAD
.160/.280/.357, 19 HR (126 G)

After a tough year that featured struggles in New York and Los Angeles, Gallo enters his first free agency with the lowest stock of his career. Sixteen months ago, Gallo entered the 2021 All-Star break with a .924 OPS and 24 home runs, which led to the Yankees acquiring Gallo at the Trade Deadline for four prospects. Gallo’s time in pinstripes never panned out, however. His 140-game stint in New York was defined by a high strikeout rate, a minuscule walk rate and sporadic playing time. A year after being acquired by the Yankees, New York traded him to the Dodgers for a pitching prospect, with Yankees’ GM Brian Cashman admitting “clearly, this place [New York] had an adverse effect on Joey.”

Still, Gallo should have no shortage of suitors this winter thanks to his tantalizing power, defense (he won a Gold Glove Award in right field in 2021) and age (he’ll be 29 next Opening Day). It just won’t be anywhere near the payday he once seemed destined to receive.

Possible fits: Rays, Giants, Red Sox, Braves

Mike Zunino, C, TB
.148/.195/.305, 5 HR (36 G)

While Zunino’s 2022 season was lost to injury, the 31-year-old catcher is only a year removed from mashing 33 home runs en route to earning an All-Star nod and some down-ballot MVP votes. But with questions surrounding Zunino’s health -- he played in only 36 games last season before being diagnosed with thoracic outlet syndrome that required season-ending surgery -- the backstop believes he'll be all set for Spring Training, which should lead to him having a fairly robust free-agent market.

Possible fits: Rays, Guardians, Twins, Cardinals

Michael Brantley, OF, HOU
.288/.370/.416, 5 HR (64 G)

After four straight years of good health, injuries impacted Brantley in 2022, when he missed the final three months of the regular season and all of the postseason with a shoulder injury. While the 35-year-old Brantley isn’t getting any younger, his bat hasn’t slowed down as he’s gotten older -- as evidenced by his .307 batting average with an OPS+ of 124 in 522 games over the past five seasons. Even if he can’t play the field every day -- 2022 was the first 162-game season that he spent more time at DH than in the field -- he’s a professional hitter who still boasts some of the best bat-to-ball skills in the game.

Possible fits: Astros, Yankees, Mets, Mariners

Mitch Haniger, OF, SEA
.246/.308/.429, 11 HR (57 G)

Much like Brantley, Haniger’s market will be determined by how many teams will be able to overlook his injury history. When healthy, Haniger is one of the best hitters in baseball -- see his All-Star season in 2018 (26 HR and 93 RBIs) and his strong 2021 campaign (39 HR, 100 RBIs). That said, those years have alternated with sluggish, injury-riddled years complete with a lost 2020 season due to multiple surgeries.

Still, Haniger should have a fairly robust market in free agency and could potentially net himself a multi-year contract. He could very well end up being Seattle, saying after the season that he’s hoping to be back in a Mariners uniform, and the Mariners seem amenable to that, even after not extending a qualifying offer.

Possible fits: Mariners, Giants, White Sox, Cardinals

Michael Conforto, OF, NYM
.232/.344/.384, 14 HR (125 G in 2021)

There are lost seasons, and there’s what happened to Conforto in 2022. After declining the Mets $18.4 million qualifying offer in November 2021, Conforto spent all of the 2022 season without a team after he suffered a season-ending shoulder injury during a workout in April.

While there was some initial buzz that Conforto would sign with a team after the MLB Draft (since a team wouldn’t have to give up Draft pick compensation to sign him), Conforto ended up spending all of 2022 without a team. In 2021, Conforto posted his lowest OPS (.729) and wRC+ (106) since his first full season in 2016. A one-time All-Star, his best year came in 2019 when he slugged 33 home runs and drove in 92 runs in 151 games.

Possible fits: Mets, Mariners, Twins, Rays

Adam Duvall, OF, ATL
.213/.276/.401, 12 HR (86 G)

Duvall’s 2021 season will live on in Atlanta Braves lore -- and for good reason. After being acquired from the Marlins at the Trade Deadline, Duvall made good on his second stint in Atlanta by hitting 16 home runs and driving in 45 runs in 55 regular-season games (along with winning a Gold Glove) before mashing two home runs in the World Series. Duvall failed to recapture that magic in 2022, however, suffering a season-ending wrist injury in July.

Possible fits: Red Sox, Guardians, Rangers, Cardinals

Adam Frazier, 2B, SEA
.238/.301/.311, 3 HR (156 G)

Frazier has taken a step back since being traded to the Padres at the 2021 Trade Deadline, hitting .243 in 290 plate appearances with the Padres and Mariners since being dealt. That said, the 30-year-old still has a strong track record of being a quality hitter, and he isn’t far removed from being an All-Star in 2021 after hitting .331 in the first half. He’s also a versatile defender (he spent time at all three outfield spots along with playing at shortstop and second base last year) and delivered in the clutch for Seattle in the Wild Card Series.

Possible fits: Orioles, Padres, Giants, Phillies

J.D. Martinez, DH, BOS
.274/.341/.448, 16 HR (139 G)

The only 2022 All-Star on this list, Martinez is entering free agency for the first time since he signed with the Red Sox in 2018. While Martinez’s power is beginning to show signs of decline, he continued to show a penchant for hitting balls in the gap, finishing the year with a career-high 43 doubles. Additionally, Martinez’s market will be determined by his bat because, at 34, the slugger was strictly a DH in 2022.

Possible fits: Guardians, Astros, Mets, Dodgers

Will Smith, LHP (ATL/HOU)
3.97 ERA, 5 SV, 65 K (59 IP)

In 2021, Smith put together a postseason for the ages, tossing 11 scoreless innings, recording six saves and closing out Atlanta's World Series win. A year later, Smith was left off the Astros' ALDS and ALCS rosters. While he was added for the World Series, he did not appear in a game. Acquired by Houston at the Trade Deadline in a straight swap for Jake Odorizzi, Smith was solid with the Astros, recording a 3.27 ERA in 22 innings. That said, he still finished the year averaging a career-low 9.9 strikeouts per nine innings to go along with a 9.6% walk rate.

Possible fits: Phillies, Red Sox, D-backs, Twins

Omar Narváez, C, MIL
_.206/.292/.305, 4 HR (84 G_)

Narváez’s 2022 season was one of extremes. On defense, the 30-year-old catcher was in the 89th percentile in pitch framing, his third straight season with above-average framing numbers. That success didn’t carry over to the batter’s box, however: Narváez posted a career-low batting average a season after he clubbed a career-high 11 home runs en route to an All-Star Game nod. Alternating successful seasons at the dish is quickly becoming Narváez’s M.O., after he followed a strong 2019 season (22 HR, 55 RBIs) with a subpar 2020 season (.176 average, 10 RBIs in 40 games). Even with that offensive inconsistency, Narváez should generate a solid market due to his work behind the plate.

Possible fits: Astros, Twins, Cardinals, Tigers