Chaos Week didn't come to full fruition in Week 4, and Week 5 probably isn't the spot for it. (Or is it?) There are plenty of heavy underdogs who can cover. We've got a Sunday morning London game with a large spread.
The Steelers are the biggest underdogs they've been in the history of the franchise. The Jaguars are touchdown favorites. Bill Belichick is 1-3 and barely favored over the "Rebuilding Since 1955" (copyright Adam Schein) Detroit Lions.
Geno Smith and Andy Dalton are going head to head in 2022 and no one is flinching. If the Atlanta Falcons beat Tom Brady for the first time (he's 10-0 against them), they'll be alone in first place in the NFC South.
We may just no longer recognize chaos, it's just a part of our lives. Go look at the current NFL standings by conference. A lot will change in the next few weeks, obviously. But this thing is wide open. It's going to be fun to see where things shake out after Week 5.
All NFL odds are via Caesars Sportsbook
NFL Week 5 Picks
Colts at Broncos
Thursday, 8:20 p.m. ET
TV: NBC | Stream: fuboTV (click here)
Follow: CBS Sports App
This matchup had some serious preseason juice to it, with Matt Ryan and Russell Wilson squaring off in their respective new abodes. But neither one of these horse teams have jumped out to the expected start -- the Colts are lucky not to be 0-4 and the Broncos are quite fortunate to have overcome some ... issues to find their way into a .500 record. The Broncos feel like a fairly obvious pick here, especially with Jonathan Taylor (ankle) out for this game. However, Denver is also down its top running back, with Javonte Williams (knee) out for the year. And the Broncos feel like the type of team willing to let Indy hang around and steal something.
The pick: Colts 17, Broncos 14
Props, Best Bets: Under
Giants at Packers
Sunday, 9:30 a.m. ET
TV: NFLN | Stream: fuboTV (click here)
Follow: CBS Sports App
London games are always a little odd -- Vegas projects this one to be a bit of a snoozer, with a low total (41) and the Packers an eight-point favorite. There's some increasing optimism about Daniel Jones playing in this game, which would make the Giants a much more attractive option catching that many points. The resurgent Saquon Barkley -- who is genuinely awesome to watch when he's healthy -- should be able to run the ball decently against Green Bay. But the Packers will be able to press Danny Dimes and I'm not sure New York can stop the Green Bay ground game. Playing from behind is a bad recipe for the GMen.
The pick: Packers 24, Giants 14
Props, Best Bets: Pass
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Texans at Jaguars
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET
TV: CBS | Stream: Paramount+ (click here)
Pretty massive game for Jacksonville here -- after jumping out to a 2-1 record and a 14-0 lead against the Eagles in Week 4, they got stomped on and coughed up turnover after turnover in bad hurricane-remnant weather. Now the young Jags must try to flex against a division opponent in Houston. Jacksonville's pass rush should make life rough for Davis Mills. The question is how does Trevor Lawrence rebound? I think the Jags look sharp but it's also a lot of points for a young team against a division opponent and a suspiciously low point total. Houston loves a good backdoor cover.
The Pick: Jaguars 23, Texans 17
Bets: Pass
Chargers at Browns
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET
TV: CBS | Stream: Paramount+ (click here)
At first glance, this game just "looks" kind of bland from a scoring perspective. But these two teams topped 100 points (!) last year in the highest-scoring game of the season and we might see more fireworks this week, too. The Chargers remain extremely questionable against the run; the Browns are a top-five team running the ball. Nick Chubb could have a big day here. The Browns will probably get Myles Garrett back for this game (if their tweets are to be believed) and Rashawn Slater's absence looms. But the Chargers sling it more than anyone in the NFL and they can attack Cleveland deep. Austin Ekeler could be set for a huge game.
The Pick: Browns 42, Chargers 39
Bets: Over 47.5, Browns +3.5, Austin Ekeler rush/rec over
Falcons at Buccaneers
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET
TV: Fox | Stream: fuboTV (click here)
Just a hunch, but I'm thinking we see Angry Tom Brady over the next few weeks. His receivers are rounding back into shape and he has the sort of off-field noise brewing that's consistently resulted in him getting laser focused and playing some elite football. The Falcons are a really impressive story so far this season, but they need to run the ball with their scheme and the Bucs are not afraid to lock down a run game. Cordarelle Patterson being out is a huge loss; Arthur Smith deserves tons of credit for turning him into the player the Vikings thought they would have after the first round of the 2013 draft. Brady has never lost to the Falcons in his career, and I don't see it happening here.
The Pick: Buccaneers 35, Falcons 15
Bets: Buccaneers -8.5
Dolphins at Jets
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET
TV: CBS | Stream: Paramount+ (click here)
Very tough game to pick here. Zach Wilson's fourth quarter has to be inspiring for the Jets' front office and coaching staff (not to mention their fans). It shouldn't eclipse the first three quarters. No Tua here but Teddy Bridgewater looked more than competent -- maybe downright explosive -- in backup duty against the Bengals. I think we could see more points than expected here. I want the Jets to win mainly so Brady Quinn will donate $1,000 to charity for every Jets win the rest of the season, and where he donates will be based entirely on Pick Six Podcast five-star review suggestions.
Tell your friends! I'm going to take the Dolphins here, mainly on the strength of their pass game against a Jets secondary that could be pretty good in a few years.
The Pick: Dolphins 27, Jets 24
Bets: Pass
Bears at Vikings
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET
TV: Fox | Stream: fuboTV (click here)
The NFC is WILD, man. The Vikings are the No. 2 seed, and in between them and the seventh-seeded Packers are three (!) NFC East teams. The Bears are one missed tackle on a Pitchy Pitchy Woo Woo play from being 3-1. The Bears are a bottom tier run defense having lost Akiem Hicks and Khalil Mack this past offseason and Dalvin Cook/Alexander Mattison should eat here in a big way. Unless Chicago can slow down the Vikings run game, Justin Fields is a mortal lock to set a season high for pass attempts, the previous being 22.
The Pick: Vikings 27, Bears 14
Bets: Tease Vikings with Chiefs, Cook over rush yards
Steelers at Bills
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET
TV: CBS | Stream: Paramount+ (click here)
A rematch of the Week 1 stunner from last year features an entirely new Pittsburgh QB situation, which has evolved over the last 96 hours or so. Kenny Pickett is in and Mitchell Trubisky is out. Pickett threw three picks against the Jets in a loss, but Pro Football Focus didn't give a turnover-worthy grade on any of those throws. Pickett became the first quarterback in NFL history to run for two touchdowns in his debut. The Bills are just too much -- Pittsburgh has never won without T.J. Watt and slowing down Stefon Diggs will be problematic for a secondary that's allowed top-tier wideouts to explode. Three great stats here in addition to the Watt thing: 1) Sean McDermott/Mike Tomlin are 3-0 to the under all time, I expect it to continue; 2) the Bills have allowed seven total second-half points this season; 3) the Bills have the most wins (12) by 14-plus points since the start of 2021 and the next-closest team has seven.
The Pick: Bills 28, Steelers 10
Bets: Under 47
Lions at Patriots
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET
TV: Fox | Stream: fuboTV (click here)
Finally a test of the "bet the Lions over until it loses" theory. This total has dropped a point and a half from the open, likely based off the bad matchup for Detroit against the Patriots run defense. It sounds like Bailey Zappe will get the start again, unless Mac Jones can get ready in time for this game. There's a Matt Patricia revenge factor here, I suppose, but maybe the Lions should be the ones looking for that angle. I tend to think the Pats play ball control and Jared Goff's career-long struggles against Bill Belichick rear their ugly head again.
The Pick: Patriots 24, Lions 17
Bets: Patriots -3
Titans at Commanders
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET
TV: CBS | Stream: Paramount+ (click here)
Will someone please stop me from backing Danny Snyder's Fabulous Football Team? Carson Wentz has had a few good moments this season but the WFT offensive line just won't hold up. Jeffery Simmons could be a problem this week. This may just be a bad matchup for Tennessee -- Washington is stout against the run and better passing the ball on offense, while the Titans lean on the run and aren't great at stopping the pass. This doesn't feel like a shootout by any means, but if Scott Turner's offense got going this week I wouldn't be shocked. Terry McLaurin is DUE for a big week.
The Pick: Commanders 21, Titans 17
Bets: Terry McLaurin over yards, receptions
Seahawks at Saints
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET
TV: Fox | Stream: fuboTV (click here)
What a fun test for the Geno Smith MVP Experiment. The Superdome will be loud, the Saints defense is a top-10 unit by Defense-adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA). Seattle is ranked third in pass offense DVOA and dead-last in pass defense DVOA. Imagine explaining this to someone in 2013. The point spread simply seems too big unless Andy Dalton is suddenly going to get loose in the pass game -- Michael Thomas is maybe/probably a go, but the New Orleans receivers are banged up for this matchup. Seattle likes to keep it close and maybe make things weird.
The Pick: Seahawks 21, Saints 20
Bets: Seahawks +5.5
Cowboys at Rams
Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET
TV: Fox | Stream: fuboTV (click here)
Folks are aggressively proclaiming the Rams dead based on two losses to the Bills and 49ers. The offensive line is definitely a big, big problem and it's resulting in Matthew Stafford sacks and turnovers. The issue here is Micah Parsons comes to town. Dan Quinn needs a head-coaching job next year -- the Cowboys are leaning on their defense over the last two years to win games. Cooper Rush's honeymoon is going to hit a speed bump at some point, but assuming Zack Martin can play, I like the Cowboys to keep this close.
The Pick: Rams 21, Cowboys 17
Bets: Cowboys +5.5
Eagles at Cardinals
Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET
TV: Fox | Stream: fuboTV (click here)
A playoff-caliber team getting five points at home ... the Eagles are getting the upmost respect at this point. This game should have shootout potential, but there's a chance the Cardinals' strength on defense (stopping the run) matches up against the Eagles' strength on offense (they're generally good but are running it very well). The Eagles are second in DVOA against the pass, but the Cardinals are the top passing team by Football Outsiders' metrics. I'm going to keep riding Philly here -- it remains undervalued a bit. The Eagles are being treated as a surprise, but they're just a really good football team.
The Pick: Eagles 27, Cardinals 21
Bets: Pass
49ers at Panthers
Sunday, 4:05 p.m. ET
TV: CBS | Stream: Paramount+ (click here)
The Carolina Panthers are the most unwatchable team in the NFL. If Watchability Rankings aren't a thing yet, they should be, and the Panthers would be 32nd for four straight weeks. The 49ers should stomp Carolina -- the only concern is how the San Francisco offensive line handles a good Panthers pass rush. Can Jimmy Garoppolo score 21 points? I say yes, which means the Niners win this one and probably cover with the way that defense is playing right now.
The Pick: 49ers 28, Panthers 6
Bets: 49ers -6.5
Bengals at Ravens
Sunday, 8:20 p.m. ET
TV: NBC | Stream: fuboTV (click here)
Joe Burrow is starting to cook and the Ravens are a picture-perfect matchup for Cincy -- they don't really rush the passer well and they're willing to give up big plays on the backend. The Bengals' offensive line could look good here and I expect a TON of points -- this feels like a Ja'Marr Chase blowup spot. I'm also not going to bet against the Ravens, John Harbaugh and Lamar Jackson at home in prime time, particularly after they went 0-2 against the Bengals last year by a combined score of 82-38. Baltimore could EASILY be 4-0, were it not for two 17-point-lead chokes. I think they do their prime-time thing and win in a very fun SNF game here.
The Pick: Ravens 38, Bengals 31
Bets: Over
Raiders at Chiefs
Monday, 8:15 p.m. ET
TV: ESPN | Stream: fuboTV (click here)
The Raiders have one win over the Chiefs in the last eight matchups, and it's the first one in 2020, when Jon Gruden and Derek Carr beat Andy Reid and Patrick Mahomes only to drive around Arrowhead Stadium and honk the team bus over and over. Insert "And I Took That Personally" MJ dot gif -- the Chiefs won the next matchup but proceeded to smoke Las Vegas in 2021 to the tune of 89-23 over two games. KC has a +70 point differential against the Raiders since HonkGate. Twenty-one teams had a lower season-long point differential last year. Josh McDaniels is new but I expect full-force Mahomes here. Chiefs are a great teaser leg too, as mentioned before.
The Pick: Chiefs 31, Raiders 21
Bets: Chiefs -1 plus Vikings -1 Teaser