The lucky fan who snagged Yankees star Aaron Judge’s 62nd home run ball might be able to sell it and never work again. Or, at least, they might be able to pay off the rest of their student loans.
“Someone is going to make a lot of money,” said Brian Kathenes, managing partner of National Appraisal Consultants.
In the first inning of the Yankees’ next-to-last regular-season game, on Tuesday night against the Texas Rangers in Arlington, Texas, Judge hit home run No. 62 to pass Roger Maris for the franchise and the American League single-season home run record. The 30-year-old Yankees slugger drove a 1-1 slider from Texas right-hander Jesús Tinoco into the first couple of rows of seats in left field when leading off the second game of a day-night doubleheader.
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The ball traveled 391 feet and landed in the glove of a fan in the left-field stands. The fan who caught it was standing in Section 31. He was then taken with security to have the ball authenticated.
He likely will be given the opportunity to hand the ball back to the slugger or trade it to him in exchange for merchandise. Think autographs, jerseys, bats or even season tickets in the Judge’s Chambers at Yankee Stadium. Heck, maybe Judge would even throw in a foam gavel. But there’s no way that person should make a deal if they want to recoup full value for their good fortune, experts said.
“They would be insane if they didn’t do this,” said Mike Gutierrez, the owner of Pop Culture Appraisals.
NJ Advance Media surveyed a handful of certified appraisers with more than 100 years combined experience in assessing how much celebrity and historic memorabilia could be worth and slapping a price tag on it.
While the figures were wide-ranging, there was zero doubt that the baseball Judge’s 62nd home run ball would mean a hefty payday — especially considering Judge hit No. 61 in to the Blue Jays’ bullpen and team security retrieved it on Wednesday, taking another valuable item from his home run chase off the market.
Les Wolf, who appraised items for Mickey Mantle and Muhammad Ali, said he believed that the ball could be worth as much as $5 million. Brandon Steiner, who ran Steiner Sports and now owns CollectibleXchange, said he expected it to sell for approximately $2.5 million.
Kathenes pegged the ball to be worth in the mid six figures.
In 1998, Gutierrez performed an insurance appraisal on Mark McGwire’s 70th home run ball for Butterfield, Butterfield & Dunning Auctions, expecting the ball to be sold for $2.4 million. “Family Guy” creator Seth MacFarlane bought it for a record $2.6 million. Gutierrez said he believes Judge’s ball could be worth between $700,000 and $800,000.
And Leila Dunbar, who ran Sotheby’s collectibles department for a decade, estimates it could be worth $200,000-$300,000.
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JP Cohen, president of auction house Memory Lane, has said he’d pay $2 million for it.
“This sports card and memorabilia market is the strongest that I have ever seen,” Dunbar said, “with at least 100 items selling for $1 million or more since the rise of COVID-19.”
The hot market, however, isn’t all that could drive up Judge’s historic long ball. Several of the appraisers surveyed pointed to variables outside of No. 62 itself that could affect the ball’s value:
It’s a part of Yankees history
In early September, Forbes declared the Yankees the fourth-most valuable sports franchise in the world at $6 billion, behind the top-ranked Dallas Cowboys at $8 billion, the New England Patriots at $6.4 billion and the Los Angeles Rams at $6.2 billion. The Los Angeles Dodgers were the next-most valuable baseball franchise at No. 26, valued at $4.08 billion. The Yankees have the richest history, widest reach and biggest fanbase.
“If (Judge) was a Milwaukee Brewer or a Seattle Mariners guy or whatever, it would still go for some decent money,” Gutierrez said. “But it wouldn’t be anything close to what it will be with that New York Yankees name on it.”
A Babe Ruth jersey from 1920 — his first season with the Yankees — sold for $4.4 million, making it the most expensive piece of sports memorabilia ever sold. A Ruth bat went for $1.3 million. Even a game-used Derek Jeter sock went for $409.99.
Judge’s image
Though McGwire’s 70th home run ball went for million, allegations of steroid use have tanked its market, with some experts valuing the ball at just $200,000 these days. Barry Bonds, one of the faces of baseball’s steroid problem, saw the 73rd home run he hit in 2002 for MLB’s single-season record sell for just $450,000. To date, there hasn’t been a single report or allegation linking Judge to performance-enhancing drugs of any kind. “There’s no nastiness you can say about him,” Gutierrez said. As of Sept. 16, an Ebay user listed a Judge rookie card for auction at $325,000.
An MVP season?
Judge isn’t just swatting homers. He’s having one of the best all-around offensive seasons of all time, and he seems like a lock to be voted his first American League MVP award and could win the Triple Crown. Breaking Maris’ record is the icing on the cake of a season for the history books.
Location, location, location
If Judge had hit the home run at Yankee Stadium, it could have driven up the price, according to Wolf. It won’t be worth as much having come in Texas, he believes, but it’ll still be worth a lot.
The final tally
No. 62 will be the most valuable home run of Judge’s season, the appraisers agreed. Even if Judge finishes with more, none would be as significant in terms of impact as when he passed Maris. If Judge had hit 71 to pass McGwire or 74 to leap Bonds, those balls could fetch even more and devalue No. 62, experts said.
What if Judge leaves New York?
It’s likely that the ball wouldn’t go to auction for approximately three months, experts estimated. Auction houses need time to prep their catalogs and decide how they would want to sell the ball. By then, Judge could have already left the Yankees in free agency, and the home run could wind up among the last — or even the last — one he hits in pinstripes.
Who wants it?
Kathenes said that it might not even be a baseball fan who comes in with the highest bid. “They might be investors,” he said. A group of rich people might see Judge’s 62nd home run as a commodity that would increase in value over time and set them up for an even bigger payday. Or it could go to a billionaire looking to donate it to the Baseball Hall of Fame for a tax write-off. “The market for something like this will probably be somebody with unlimited resources,” Kathenes said.
And it’s going to be a grand slam to someone’s bank account.
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New York Yankees' Aaron Judge, right, hugs teammates after hitting a solo home run, his 62nd of the season, during the first inning in the second baseball game against the Texas Rangers in Arlington, Texas, Tuesday, Oct. 4, 2022. With the home run, Judge set the AL record for home runs in a season, passing Roger Maris.
New York Yankees' Aaron Judge, left, watches his solo home, his 62nd of the season, with Texas Rangers catcher Sam Huff during the first inning in the second baseball game of a doubleheader in Arlington, Texas, Tuesday, Oct. 4, 2022. With the home run, Judge set the AL record for home runs in a season, passing Roger Maris.
New York Yankees' Aaron Judge heads to the dugout after hitting a solo home run, his 62nd of the season, during the first inning in the second baseball game of a doubleheader against the Texas Rangers in Arlington, Texas, Tuesday, Oct. 4, 2022. With the home run, Judge set the AL record for home runs in a season, passing Roger Maris.
New York Yankees' Aaron Judge connects for a solo home run, his 62nd of the season, off of Texas Rangers starting pitcher Jesus Tinoco (63) as Texas Rangers catcher Sam Huff and umpire Randy Rosenberg look on in the first inning of the second baseball game of a doubleheader in Arlington, Texas, Tuesday, Oct. 4, 2022. With the home run, Judge set the AL record for home runs in a season, passing Roger Maris.
New York Yankees' Aaron Judge follows through on a solo home run, his 62nd of the season, as Texas Rangers catcher Sam Huff, left, and umpire Randy Rosenberg, rear, look on in the first inning of the second baseball game of a doubleheader in Arlington, Texas, Tuesday, Oct. 4, 2022. With the home run, Judge set the AL record for home runs in a season, passing Roger Maris.
New York Yankees' Aaron Judge, left, hits a solo home, his 62nd of the season, in front of Texas Rangers catcher Sam Huff and home plate umpire Chris Segal during the first inning in the second baseball game of a doubleheader in Arlington, Texas, Tuesday, Oct. 4, 2022. With the home run, Judge set the AL record for home runs in a season, passing Roger Maris.
New York Yankees' Aaron Judge, left, hits a solo home, his 62nd of the season, in front of Texas Rangers catcher Sam Huff and home plate umpire Chris Segal during the first inning in the second baseball game of a doubleheader in Arlington, Texas, Tuesday, Oct. 4, 2022. With the home run, Judge set the AL record for home runs in a season, passing Roger Maris.
New York Yankees' Aaron Judge watches his a solo home run, his 62nd of the season, off of Texas Rangers starting pitcher Jesus Tinoco (63) as catcher Sam Huff and umpire Randy Rosenberg look on in the first inning of the second baseball game of a doubleheader in Arlington, Texas, Tuesday, Oct. 4, 2022. With the home run, Judge set the AL record for home runs in a season, passing Roger Maris.
New York Yankees' Aaron Judge watches his a solo home run, his 62nd of the season, off of Texas Rangers starting pitcher Jesus Tinoco (63) as catcher Sam Huff and umpire Randy Rosenberg look on in the first inning of the second baseball game of a doubleheader in Arlington, Texas, Tuesday, Oct. 4, 2022. With the home run, Judge set the AL record for home runs in a season, passing Roger Maris.
New York Yankees' Aaron Judge rounds the bases past Texas Rangers first baseman Nathaniel Lowe (30), umpire Lew Williams and first base coach Travis Chapman after hitting hit a solo home run, his 62nd of the season, in the first inning of the second baseball game of a doubleheader in Arlington, Texas, Tuesday, Oct. 4, 2022. With the home run, Judge set the AL record for home runs in a season, passing Roger Maris.
New York Yankees' Aaron Judge rounds the bases after hitting a solo home run, his 62nd of the season, in the first inning of the second baseball game of a doubleheader against the Texas Rangers in Arlington, Texas, Tuesday, Oct. 4, 2022. With the home run, Judge set the AL record for home runs in a season, passing Roger Maris.
New York Yankees' Aaron Judge rounds second on his way home after hitting a solo home run, his 62nd of the season, off of Texas Rangers starter Jesus Tinoco (63) in the first inning of the second baseball game of a doubleheader in Arlington, Texas, Tuesday, Oct. 4, 2022. With the home run, Judge set the AL record for home runs in a season, passing Roger Maris.
The New York Yankees' Aaron Judge rounds the bases after hitting a solo home run, his 62nd of the season, Tuesday against the Texas Rangers.
New York Yankees' Aaron Judge runs out his solo home, his 62nd of the season, in front of Texas Rangers third baseman Josh Jung (6) during the first inning in the second baseball game in Arlington, Texas, Tuesday, Oct. 4, 2022. With the home run, Judge set the AL record for home runs in a season, passing Roger Maris.
New York Yankees' Aaron Judge gestures as he rounds the bases after hitting a solo home run, his 62nd of the season, during the first inning in the second baseball game of a doubleheader against the Texas Rangers in Arlington, Texas, Tuesday, Oct. 4, 2022. With the home run, Judge set the AL record for home runs in a season, passing Roger Maris.
New York Yankees' Aaron Judge runs out his solo home run, his 62nd of the season, as Texas Rangers starting pitcher Jesus Tinoco looks on in the background during the first inning in the second baseball game in Arlington, Texas, Tuesday, Oct. 4, 2022. With the home run, Judge set the AL record for home runs in a season, passing Roger Maris.
New York Yankees' Aaron Judge (99) approaches home plate as teammates come out to congratulate him after hitting a solo home run, his 62nd of the season, in the first inning of the second baseball game of a doubleheader against the Texas Rangers in Arlington, Texas, Tuesday, Oct. 4, 2022. With the home run, Judge set the AL record for home runs in a season, passing Roger Maris. Umpire Randy Rosenberg and Rangers catcher Sam Huff also stand by watching the play.
New York Yankees' Aaron Judge (99) approaches home plate as teammates come out to congratulate him after hitting a solo home run, his 62nd of the season, in the first inning of the second baseball game of a doubleheader against the Texas Rangers in Arlington, Texas, Tuesday, Oct. 4, 2022. With the home run, Judge set the AL record for home runs in a season, passing Roger Maris. Umpire Randy Rosenberg and Rangers catcher Sam Huff also stand by watching the play.
New York Yankees' Aaron Judge, is greeted at the dugout by teammates and cheering fans after hitting a solo home run, his 62nd of the season, in the first inning of the second baseball game of a doubleheader against the Texas Rangers in Arlington, Texas, Tuesday, Oct. 4, 2022. With the home run, Judge set the AL record for home runs in a season, passing Roger Maris. (AP Photo/Tony Gutierrez)
New York Yankees' Aaron Judge smiles in the dugout after hitting a solo home run, his 62nd of the season, during the first inning in the second baseball game of a doubleheader against the Texas Rangers in Arlington, Texas, Tuesday, Oct. 4, 2022. With the home run, Judge set the AL record for home runs in a season, passing Roger Maris.
New York Yankees' Aaron Judge smiles in the dugout after hitting a solo home run, his 62nd of the season, during the first inning in the second baseball game of a doubleheader against the Texas Rangers in Arlington, Texas, Tuesday, Oct. 4, 2022. With the home run, Judge set the AL record for home runs in a season, passing Roger Maris.
Fans reach for a foul ball by New York Yankees' Aaron Judge during the second inning in the second baseball game of a doubleheader against the Texas Rangers in Arlington, Texas, Tuesday, Oct. 4, 2022.
New York Yankees' Aaron Judge stands in the dugout after his solo home run during the first inning in the second baseball game of the team's doubleheader against the Texas Rangers in Arlington, Texas, Tuesday, Oct. 4, 2022. With the home run, Judge set the AL record for home runs in a season at 62, passing Roger Maris.
New York Yankees third baseman Josh Donaldson (28) talks with right fielder Aaron Judge (99) as he leaves the game in the second inning of the second baseball game of a doubleheader against the Texas Rangers in Arlington, Texas, Tuesday, Oct. 4, 2022.
New York Yankees' Aaron Judge (99) enter the dugout as he leaves the game in the second inning of the second baseball game of a doubleheader against the Texas Rangers in Arlington, Texas, Tuesday, Oct. 4, 2022. Rangers field coordinator/third base coach Corey Ragsdale (64) stands by.
New York Yankees' Aaron Judge, center, sits in the dugout with teammates and staff watching play against the Texas Rangers during the eighth inning of the second baseball game of a doubleheader in Arlington, Texas, Tuesday, Oct. 4, 2022.
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Brendan Kuty may be reached at bkuty@njadvancemedia.com.
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