The fresh controversy engulfing Herschel Walker threatens to derail his bid against Sen. Raphael Warnock (D-GA), with Republican insiders warning their party’s nominee has little room for error in a contest polling within the margin of error five weeks before Election Day.
Warnock led Walker 47% to 46.3% in polling averages as his Republican challenger faced allegations he paid for a paramour to have an abortion in 2009. Walker issued an unequivocal denial and vowed legal action against the Daily Beast, which reported accusations made by the candidate’s unnamed ex-girlfriend. But some Republican insiders in Georgia say it might not be enough to save Walker with crucial swing voters, despite favorable political tailwinds for the GOP.
But even if it is, some Georgia Republicans say Walker has a second problem on his hands less easily dismissed.
In the wake of the abortion allegations, Walker’s son, Christian Walker, who has a large social media following, lashed out at his father on video in remarks posted on Twitter, accusing him of being an absentee parent and unfaithful spouse. This could cause Walker, who is campaigning as an ardent opponent of abortion rights, irreparable political harm in the final weeks of a critical midterm elections battle poised to determine the Senate majority.
“The son’s statements lend credibility to a story that would have credibility and journalistic problems on its own,” a Republican operative in Georgia said, requesting anonymity to speak candidly. “Herschel had the chance to bring along hesitant voters leaning toward him, and those folks may have enough now to bail. People skipping the line works almost as well for Warnock.”
“It matters. Walker has less than stellar support from the GOP — 82% in the latest Fox News poll, compared to Kemp at 94%,” added a second Georgia Republican operative. “Not only will pro-life Republicans scoff at this, but there’s a larger issue at play: authenticity. His son’s comments really drive home the point. Can voters trust Herschel? Is he who he claims to be?”
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Walker claims the allegations that he paid for an ex-girlfriend to have an abortion are a “flat-out lie,” saying in a defiant statement that “I deny this in the strongest possible terms.” The Republican added that “I am planning to sue the Daily Beast for this defamatory lie.” In a subsequent tweet, Walker said: “I LOVE my son no matter what.” Asked for comment, the Walker campaign referred the Washington Examiner to these statements.
Warnock led Walker 47% to 43% among likely voters in the Fox News survey, conducted Sept. 22-26. In the same poll, Georgia Gov. Brian Kemp (R) led Democratic challenger Stacey Abrams 51% to 44%. The margin of error was plus or minus 3 percentage points. This survey, and the contrast it revealed between support for Walker and support for Kemp, existed prior to the latest controversies rocking the Georgia GOP Senate nominee’s campaign.
Some Georgia Republicans are waving off the allegations as immaterial to the trajectory of the Senate campaign.
In a September poll commissioned by the Atlanta Journal-Constitution, President Joe Biden’s job approval rating clocked in at an abysmal 37%, and voters in Georgia, as in most states, continue to be primarily concerned about skyrocketing inflation and rising crime. It’s these issues, some Georgia Republicans say, that will dictate the outcome of the Warnock-Walker campaign, as will be the case in dozens of House and Senate races throughout the country.
“Frankly, all this is just noise,” Jay Williams, a Republican strategist in the Peach State, said in an email. “At the end [of] the day this is a nationalized election. Almost everything else is superfluous noise.”
“If you want to stop Biden and the pure insanity of his policies, we have to regain the Senate,” a veteran Georgia Republican added, explaining why he is not convinced this drama will sink Walker. “Our candidates might not be perfect, but they will do the job.”
But this Georgia Republican conceded Walker might have taken on water. “At this point, we’re fighting over elusive swing voters. I don’t think anyone can predict their behavior,” the GOP insider said.
Especially in the Atlanta suburbs, these voters matter. “Georgia is not a deeply red state, and even Alabama elected Doug Jones instead of Roy Moore,” wrote the conservative Georgia talk-radio host Erick Erickson, referring to the Democratic upset in a 2017 special election for Senate.
The Georgia Senate race is among the most competitive of the 2022 election cycle. And with Democrats scrambling to retain control of a 50-seat majority that rests on Vice President Kamala Harris’s tiebreaking vote, the winner in the Peach State really could determine which party controls the Senate in the 118th Congress.
That helps explain top Republicans in Washington quickly rallying around Walker amid the latest brouhaha.
There is a related aspect. That Walker has a checkered personal life is nothing new. The former professional athlete, who played in the National Football League and was a star running back at the University of Georgia, has talked extensively about past challenges with mental illness and the trauma that caused family members. Former President Donald Trump recruited him to run for Senate nonetheless, and Georgia Republicans nominated him overwhelmingly.
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“This is just like the smears they attempted against [Supreme Court Justices] Brett Kavanaugh and Clarence Thomas, and it will not work,” Sen. Rick Scott (R-FL), chairman of the National Republican Senatorial Committee, said in a statement. “Herschel has denied these allegations and the NRSC and Republicans stand with him.”
The super PAC aligned with Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY) is “full speed ahead in Georgia” as well. “This election is about the future of the country,” Steven Law, president of Senate Leadership Fund, said in a statement. “Herschel Walker will make things better, Raphael Warnock is making it worse.”
