Lisa Murkowski's Chances of Beating Kelly Tshibaka 35 Days to Election Day

After being censured by her own party and disavowed by former President Donald Trump, Alaska's longtime U.S. Senator Lisa Murkowski ultimately won nearly half the state's vote in a crowded primary field to decide the four candidates who would be on the ballot in November.

Whether she survives Election Day is yet to be seen.

With just over one month to go until the vote is tallied, the limited amount of polling conducted in the state since primary day shows Murkowski to be a likely but questionable favorite against Trump-endorsed opponent Kelly Tshibaka in the upcoming ranked-choice general election, with her likelihood of victory ranging anywhere from a toss-up to percentages in the double digits.

The key to Murkowski's victory, ultimately, relies on who shows up.

Lisa Murkowski
U.S. Senator Lisa Murkowski, an Alaska Republican, participates in a Senate Energy and Natural Resources Committee mark up, on Capitol Hill on May 3 in Washington, D.C. Alaska Survey Research polling released late in September... Kevin Dietsch/Getty Images

Though Murkowski won a clear plurality of voters in the primaries, an AARP-sponsored poll released at the start of September shows Tshibaka—with the backing of a significant majority of the GOP vote—swallowing up Murkowski's coalition of moderate voters and crossover supporters of Democratic candidate Patricia Chesbro to bring the vote to a tie.

However, Alaska Survey Research polling released late in September shows Murkowski a clear favorite in the race, benefitting from the enhanced turnout expected in the U.S. House contest between the divisive former Republican governor of the state, Sarah Palin, and Democrat Mary Peltola, who ascended to Congress after winning a competitive special election earlier this year.

In a tweet announcing the results (Newsweek has reached out to get a copy), pollster Ivan Moore said there was a strong symbiosis of support between Peltola and Murkowski, with Peltola's supporters carrying a 71 percent positive opinion of Murkowski.

That momentum, he noted, could be enough to allow her to ride Peltola's wave of support—and Tshibaka's lack of support among moderate voters in the state—to as much as a 13 percent margin of victory in the final tally. For comparison, Murkowski led Tshibaka by just 4 percentage points when Moore surveyed the field in July.

"Tshibaka doesn't have the legs to win," tweeted Moore. "She doesn't have the appeal to cross the partisan divide, particularly in comparison to Peltola."

Tshibaka also lacks something Murkowski has in excess: the cash necessary to flood the airwaves with her message.

Though Tshibaka outraised Murkowski within Alaska, according to campaign finance reports, Murkowski has raked in millions of dollars in out-of-state donations, while a variety of super PACs have injected roughly $6 million worth of spending into the race either boosting Murkowski or opposing Tshibaka. To date, Murkowski and her supporters have outspent Tshibaka by roughly $7.5 million.

Uncommon Knowledge

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Newsweek is committed to challenging conventional wisdom and finding connections in the search for common ground.

About the writer


Nick Reynolds is a senior politics reporter at Newsweek. A native of Central New York, he previously worked as a ... Read more

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