Disturbance approaching Caribbean showing potential of becoming tropical depression this week
Cheryl McCloudAs recovery efforts continue after the devastation left behind by Hurricane Ian, the National Hurricane Center is watching two disturbances in the Atlantic.
The closest to the U.S., Invest 91L, is a tropical wave showing signs of possible development as it approaches the Caribbean.
It could become a tropical depression over the next few days. It's expected to reach the eastern Caribbean Sea by mid week.
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Another system farther east in the Atlantic has an even higher chance of developing and could become a tropical depression by the middle of the week.
The next named storms of the 2022 Atlantic hurricane season will be Julia and Karl.
Hurricane Ian pounded Florida after coming ashore near Fort Myers with 150-mph winds Sept. 28. It crossed the state, strengthened again in the Atlantic, and hit South Carolina as a Category 1 hurricane with 85-mph winds Sept. 30.
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Here's the latest update from the NHC as of 8 a.m. Oct. 3:
What's out there and where are they?
Invest 91L: Showers and thunderstorms associated with a tropical wave located several hundred miles east of the southern Windward Islands have become slightly better organized since yesterday.
Tropical wave: An elongated area of low pressure located a few hundred miles south-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands continues to produce disorganized showers and thunderstorms.
How likely are they to strengthen?
Invest 91L: Some further development of the wave is possible, and a tropical depression could form within the next few days while it moves generally westward at 15 to 20 mph, reaching the Windward Islands and the eastern Caribbean Sea by midweek.
- Formation chance through 48 hours: low, 30 percent.
- Formation chance through 5 days: medium, 40 percent.
Tropical wave: Environmental conditions are forecast to be favorable for some gradual development, and a tropical depression is likely to form around the middle part of this week.
Further development will become less likely by the end of the week due to increasing upper-level winds. The system is forecast to move westward, then turn northwestward or northward by the end of the week over the eastern tropical Atlantic.
- Formation chance through 48 hours: medium, 50 percent.
- Formation chance through 5 days: high, 70 percent.
Who is likely to be impacted?
It's too early at this time to determine if there will be any impact to the U.S. from the tropical waves.
Residents in the Windward Islands were advised to closely monitor Invest 91L.
Forecasters urge all residents to continue monitoring the tropics and to always be prepared during what's expected to be an active hurricane season.
When is the Atlantic hurricane season?
The Atlantic hurricane season runs from June 1 through Nov. 30.
When is the peak of hurricane season?
Although the season has gotten off to a quiet start, the peak of the season is Sept. 10, with the most activity happening between mid-August and mid-October, according to the Hurricane Center.
Weather watches and warnings issued for your area
Tropical forecast over next five days
See the National Hurricane Center's five-day graphical tropical weather outlook below.
Excessive rainfall forecast
What's out there?
Systems currently being monitored by the National Hurricane Center.
What's next?
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