Greg Abbott and challenger Beto O’Rourke face off Friday night in the only televised debate before Election Day. Abbott carries the lead in polls showing it’s his race to lose. Political experts say that means during the debate O’Rourke has the most to prove.
“People who support Governor Abbott are going to think that he won the debate. People who support Beto O’Rourke are going to think he won the debate unless one of the candidates falls into a major trap,” said Brian Smith, political science professor and Associate Dean of the School of Behavioral and Social Sciences at St. Edward’s University.
Smith explained, those traps are being underprepared or making a mistake that goes viral.
“Reading about a misstep isn’t the same as watching it again and again and again in ads, on Twitter, on all sorts of social media. Then what happens? It’s going to haunt you until the very last day of Election Day,” Smith added.
“I think voters want to know who they’re voting for and what they’re voting for,” said Katie Naranjo, Travis County Democratic Party Chair.
“What Beto's job and his campaign’s job is--- is to turn out voters that did not show up in 2018 but also to communicate to voters that do not feel like they have a home in the Republican Party and they’re not being represented by Governor Abbott,” Naranjo said. Travis County Democrats said they expect O’Rourke to show how he can be a governor for all Texans and not just one party.
“I think it’s going to be really interesting to see if Governor Abbott in his remarks tonight has to actually appeal to his base or is going to start appealing to moderates. I think that seeing that pivot will be a clear indicator of where his weaknesses are,” she added.
The Travis County Republican Party expects Abbott to play it safe to protect his lead.
“He’s very careful. He assesses risk. He’s very disciplined. He’s extremely prepared. I’d be very surprised if he’s not really prepared for everything that Beto and the moderators throw at him tonight,” said Matt Mackowiak, chair of the Travis County Republican Party.
“Do you think the governor has anything to prove to families who are prioritizing gun control as one of their top issues?” CBS Austin asked. “The governor’s going to be on defense potentially on three issues. I think the grid is one, abortion is another and finally gun control,” Mackowiak said. “I think what you're going to see the governor talk about tonight is that we can have two things at the same time. We can protect second amendment rights for lawful gun owners while we also do everything we can to make our schools as safe as possible,” he added.
Experts say tonight matters most for O’Rourke since the debate may be his last, best chance to reach undecided voters.
“I think, especially for people who haven't made up their minds, it’s very important that they watch the debate or watch it online if they can't watch it live because this really is the best way to see both candidates as human beings on stage. Then you can really tell based on the issues which candidate is closer to you,” Smith said.
The debate will stream online.