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Things for the Patriots went from bad to worse last Sunday. Not only did they lose to the Ravens, but they also lost starting quarterback Mac Jones to a severe high ankle sprain.
Now, New England looks to avoid a 1-3 start as it turns to backup quarterback Brian Hoyer. To do so, the Patriots will have to knock off a Green Bay team seeking its third straight win following a Week 1 stumble.
Will Aaron Rodgers and the Packers take care of business at home, or can Bill Belichick devise a plan to pull off the upset?
Let’s jump into this NFL Week 4 matchup with our Patriots vs. Packers betting preview, complete with full analysis.
Patriots vs. Packers betting preview
Patriots vs. Packers odds
The early line for this matchup opened with the Packers favored by just over a touchdown. The 7.5-point spread quickly jumped above 10 points after Jones went down. Over at DraftKings Sportsbook, Green Bay currently comes in at -9. Predictably, the public has favored the Packers. Nearly 70% of spread money is tailing Green Bay.
The total opened at 42.5 points, but the number quickly dropped to 40.5 points with Jones sidelined and the Green bay offense still looking to find its footing.
In terms of the action, total bets are nearly split, but 83 percent of the money at DraftKings follows the under.
Winning the turnover battle
The Packers have started no worse than 3-1 in each of their last seven season, and they are set up nicely to continue that run this week against the struggling Patriots.
Such a sizable spread may seem like a tough cover for the Packers, but Green Bay already has 22 wins by at least nine points in three seasons under head coach Matt LaFleur.
Seven of those victories came last year, including a perfect 3-0 against the spread (ATS) record as a double-digit favorite.
Aaron Rodgers may still be working on chemistry with a young group of receivers, but he protects the football at an elite level and is plenty capable of making enough plays to outpace a New England offense that has been uncharacteristically generous through three weeks.
Green Bay gave the ball away the third least of any team last season and owned the fourth best turnover differential. Conversely, the Patriots have turned the ball over the second most of any NFL team.
New England went 8-0 SU in games where it won the turnover battle last season, but the Patriots were just 1-7 SU when losing the turnover battle. Five of the seven losses came by at least nine points. In fact, 10 of New England’s 17 defeats following Tom Brady’s departure have come by at least nine points.
An unfamiliar spot
Under Belichick, New England has earned quite a reputation in the underdog role. His Patriots teams are 52-31 as underdogs, but the team’s success has been such that New England has only rarely faced spreads this big. In fact, the Patriots were only handed seven points or greater five times since their Super Bowl victory to cap the 2001 season.
As such, this is unfamiliar territory for New England and a role the team crumbled in the last time it was spotted this many points. That contest occurred in back in Week 4 of the 2022 season on the road at Kansas City against another great quarterback in Patrick Mahomes. The Patriots closed as 11-point underdogs with Brian Hoyer under center and went on to lose by a 26-10 final.
It’s hard to imagine New England will have a better chance of keeping it close with Hoyer under center this Sunday against a Green Bay defense that has allowed a total of 22 points over the last two weeks.
While New England’s formidable reputation has been well-earned over the last two decades, there comes a point where one has to also be realistic about the product currently taking the field.
In other words, the Patriots aren’t the Patriots.
Generous defense
The Patriots were gashed defensively by Lamar Jackson and Baltimore last Sunday for 394 total yards, including 188 yards on the ground. Last season, the Patriots conceded that many yards just three times. One of those three occasion came in overtime and the other two came against the high-powered Buffalo offense.
Typically, New England has not responded well after being so generous in terms of yards allowed. The Patriots are just 2-7 ATS in their last nine games after allowing greater than 150 yards on the ground. They have also failed to cover any of their last six games after conceding over 350 total yards in their previous game.
Patriots vs. Packers betting trends
New England has not covered any of its last five road games and is 0-6-1 ATS in its last seven contests played on grass. This sets up well for Green Bay which is 8-2 ATS in its last 10 at Lambeau Field and 19-7 ATS in its last 26 contests played on grass.
Making matters worse for New England, the Patriots have not covered any of their last four games against winning teams. Going back further, New England is just 2-9 ATS in its last 11 games against a winning team that plays with a revenge angle. Green Bay will play with revenge this weekend, having lost the last head-to-head meeting by a 31-17 score back in 2018.
And if you’re wondering about a potential let down spot for the Packers after an emotional win against Tampa Bay last Sunday, well, don’t.
Green Bay does not let its foot off the gas against weaker competition, having covered six of its last eight against teams with losing records.
Following that win over the Bucs, there are a few more favorable trends backing Green Bay.
The Packers are 10-3 ATS in their last 13 games after an ATS win and 13-5 ATS in their last 18 games following a victory. Moreover, they have covered six straight games after scoring no more than 14 points in their previous game.
Patriots vs. Packers pick
Green Bay is the far superior team on both sides of the football. The Packers protect the football better, are at home and have one of the best players in the league at quarterback.
With a chance to get to 3-1 ahead a soft spot on the schedule, the Packers should provide a focused effort that results in a double-digit victory.
Our pick: Packers -9 over Patriots
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