NFL odds Week 4: How to bet Chiefs-Buccaneers

The Super Bowl-winning quarterbacks will take center stage when Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs play Tom Brady and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers on Sunday Night Football.

Brady has won the Super Bowl an NFL-record seven times and Mahomes won Super Bowl LIV after the 2019 season.

Here's everything you need from a betting perspective on the Chiefs-Buccaneers game, from the point spread, moneyline, total Over/Under and expert pick (odds via FOX Bet):

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Chiefs @ Buccaneers (8:20 p.m. ET Sunday, NBC)

Point spread: Buccaneers -1 (Buccaneers favored to win by more than 1 point, otherwise Chiefs cover)
Moneyline: Buccaneers -110 co-favorites to win (bet $10 to win $19.09 total); Chiefs -110 co-favorites to win (bet $10 to win $19.09 total)
Total scoring over/under: 45.5 points scored by both teams combined

Mahomes is 15-13 against the spread (ATS) and 22-6 straight up (SU) as a starter when a road favorite.

The Chiefs are 5-8 ATS and 6-7 SU against the Buccaneers all-time and 1-4 ATS and 1-4 SU since 2000, with the over in the over/under (O/U) hitting in three of those games.

The Chiefs are 0-2 ATS and 1-1 SU against the Buccaneers under Andy Reid since 2013, with the under hitting in both games.

Brady is 11-1 ATS and 9-3 straight up SU as a starter when a home underdog.

The Buccaneers are 5-3-1 ATS and 3-6 SU as home underdogs since 2018, with the under in the O/U hitting five times in nine games.

The Buccaneers are 5-3 ATS and 5-3 SU against AFC West opponents since 2013, with the under in the O/U hitting four times with one push.

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Pick via FOX Sports NFL Analyst Geoff Schwartz:

Who would have thought a matchup between the best quarterback of all time and the best current quarterback in the league would be about defense? But that's exactly what we will see on Sunday — a low-scoring defensive matchup.

For the Chiefs, we are seeing the effects of having no Tyreek Hill on the roster. It's not that the Chiefs can’t generate explosive passing plays. It's just that Mahomes doesn’t have a receiver he trusts when he breaks the pocket. On third down, he doesn’t have a go-to weapon yet. The Chiefs' offense scored 20 points against both the Chargers and Colts in the last two weeks while looking sluggish at times.

The Bucs' defense is ranked first in defensive DVOA after three weeks, and I fear they will turn the Chiefs into a one-dimensional team by taking away their ability to run. That allows the pass rush to heat up, and just like most quarterbacks, Mahomes will not be as crisp with pressure in his face.

Tampa Bay's offense is ranked 27th in DVOA and has only scored 44 points on offense through three weeks. The Bucs' injuries, along with Mike Evans' single-game suspension, have halted their offensive production. It feels that simple. When you’re down multiple offensive linemen and missing three of your top receiving options, you will score 12 points against a good Packers defense.

Well, the Chiefs' defense might be the most improved single unit this season. They are ranked ninth in efficiency through three weeks. They’ve finally found a pass rush and are so active in the back end with their speed and length. Mike Evans is back for the Bucs, but their offensive line will still feature at least two backups. Is Godwin or Jones back? There are still too many unknowns for the Bucs offense.

I’m taking the under here.

PICK: Under 45.5 points scored by both teams combined at FOX Bet

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Pick via FOX Sports Betting Expert Warren Sharp:

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers' defense ranks No. 1 vs. the pass and No. 2 overall. But this has come against the No. 1 easiest schedule of passing offenses and No. 2 easiest overall schedule.

The Cowboys were without receiving threats when Tampa Bay drew them in Week 1 (as they are still today).

The Saints are a bottom-five passing offense, and the Packers were without key receiving threats last week and rank as the No. 13 passing attack in the NFL.

We know the Bucs have a strong run defense. They did last year and still do this year, ranking No. 10 in success rate allowed (33%) and No. 8 in YPC allowed (3.8).

Last week the Bucs really limited the Packers strong run game, holding them to just 3.0 YPC and a paltry 22% success rate on early-down runs.

Unlike the Packers, the Chiefs don’t care to run the ball nearly as much. Green Bay was the fourth most run-heavy team on early downs in the first three quarters, running into the teeth of the Bucs defensive strength. But the Chiefs pass the ball at the second-highest rate in the NFL on early downs.

And they just tangled with the Colts run defense last week, a run defense that ranks even better than the Bucs.

The Bucs have done well against the pass so far this year, recording the No. 3 lowest success rate allowed to opposing early down passing attacks (35%). But that’s come against weaker passing attacks, as both Dallas and the Saints rank bottom-10 in early down offensive passing success.

The Chiefs passing attack ranks second in early down passing success and third in early down EPA/pass attempt.

And while this may be surprising, and it was to me as well, on early downs in the first three quarters (where the Chiefs are the No. 2 highest pass-rate team in the NFL), the Bucs have the NFL’s No. 7 highest blitz rate but are getting pressure on all dropbacks at the No. 31 rate in the NFL (16%).

We saw this against Aaron Rodgers last week. Rodgers connected on 15-of-17 early down passes in the first three quarters vs. this TB defense, recording 1 TD, 0 INTs, 8.4 YPA, +0.28 EPA/att and a 53% success rate.

But the Packers offense didn’t have more success because they called run plays on 51% of early downs in the first three quarters.

And these runs generated just 3.1 YPC, -0.27 EPA/att and a 22% success rate.

Why the Packers didn’t lean more into their strong pass game once they saw the run game was ineffective was puzzling from an in-game playcalling perspective, but with a solid lead, my belief is they were trying to shorten the game and keep Tom Brady on the sideline.

Third downs were not nearly as successful for Rodgers, and the offense would have fared better if they passed at a higher rate on early downs. But I expect this Chiefs offense to do just that on Sunday night.

I also wanted to point out a perplexing comment from Buccaneers defender Shaq Barrett, who laughed about the Chiefs rebuilt offensive line this year.

"I really don’t think it’s too much of a difference," said Barrett. "I think we have a lot of favorable matchups. I think we really have an opportunity to really dominate the game... I just think, yeah, we’ve got an opportunity to really impose our will as pass-rushers, edge rushers in this game. We can really have like a coming-out party. I know we had six sacks the other game, but we can really have a coming-out party as edge defenders in the position group for this game."

One thing is for sure, the matchup between the Chiefs offensive line and Bucs defensive line will be must-see TV on Sunday night.

On the other side of the ball, the Chiefs, who long struggled to stop the run, currently are nearly identical to the Bucs defending early down RB-runs: No. 8 in YPC allowed (3.9) and No. 17 in success rate allowed (37%).

Last week the Chiefs had to tangle with Jonathan Taylor and held the Colts RBs to just 3.8 YPC and a 30% success rate on early-down runs.

This Bucs offense is massively struggling, and they’ll obviously hope to find more success with the return of depth at receiver, but just last week, they played the NFL’s worst RB-run defense on early downs, the Packers, and the results were very subpar:

-0.22 EPA/att, 2.9 YPC and 50% success on all 12 RB-runs totaling only 35 yards.

Tampa Bay either needs more efficiency out of its ground game against a more stout run defense of the Chiefs, or it’ll need to return to the passing attack, which didn’t work out too well last week.

Both of these defenses rank top-5 in percentage of opponent’s pass attempts gain 10+ yards, so they limit chunk gains through the air as well as any defenses in the NFL, thanks, in large part, to the fact that both play 2-high safeties at very high rates.

And Tom Brady ranks No. 2 worst in the NFL in EPA/att on short passes (<15 yards). And when he throws less than 15 yards vs. 2-high defenses (KC runs it at the fourth-highest rate), Brady ranks No. 31 in both EPA/att (-0.30) and success rate (33%).

There is value going under 45.

PICK: Under 45.5 points scored combined by both teams at FOX Bet

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