Leicester vs Nottingham Forest: How East Midlands rivals' differing routes led them both to relegation worries

Leicester and Forest occupy bottom two places in Premier League; Foxes were lowest summer spenders while Forest signed 23 new players; watch Leicester vs Nottingham Forest on Monday, live on Sky Sports Main Event and Premier League from 7pm; kick-off 8pm

By Joe Shread, @JoeShreadSky

Perhaps Brendan Rodgers could see the storm clouds on the horizon. In the wake of a 4-1 FA Cup hammering at Nottingham Forest - then in the Championship - back in February, the Leicester manager was furious.

"There are players here who may have achieved everything they can," he warned. "They've got to have a look at themselves in the mirror and fight like hell to prove they're good enough to be here."

Unfortunately for Rodgers, his message appears to have fallen on deaf ears. Seven months on and the Foxes find themselves bottom of the Premier League following a run of six successive defeats.

For Forest, that win in February only added to the momentum they were generating following Steve Cooper's appointment earlier in the season, which ultimately ended with them reaching the FA Cup quarter-finals and finally returning to the Premier League via the play-offs.

But that momentum has firmly ground to a halt upon their promotion, despite a summer that saw them sign enough players to fill a first-team squad thanks to a spend of more than £150m. Cooper's side now find themselves 19th in the table, only kept off bottom spot by Leicester.

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The East Midlands rivals face off on Monday Night Football, live on Sky Sports, for the first time since that cup clash in February and for the first time in the top flight this millennium.

A lot has happened at both the King Power Stadium and the City Ground since then but, having taken very different routes to get there, both Leicester and Forest now find themselves in similar positions - battling to escape the relegation zone under managers feeling the heat.

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'You need to refresh to avoid decline'

Leicester manager Brendan Rodgers admitted his side's poor results are his responsibility and that he would respect any decision the owners made over his future after the defeat to Tottenham this month

Rodgers' public warning to his Leicester players following that defeat at Forest may have seemed surprising, given he was criticising a squad that had finished fifth in the Premier League in the previous two seasons and had won the FA Cup for the first time in their history.

But the Foxes had failed to meet those standards in the 2021/22 season, with their cup exit coming on the back of a Europa League campaign that had been ended at the group stage and with Rodgers' side lying a disappointing 12th in the Premier League.

Leicester did rally to finish eighth last season, while they also reached the semi-finals of the Europa Conference League, but Rodgers' words made it clear he felt the time was right to shake up his squad.

Unfortunately for him, financial constraints meant Leicester were the league's lowest spenders over the summer, with the manager only able to bring in two players - reserve goalkeeper Alex Smithies and defender Wout Faes - while 12 were allowed to depart, including key members of the first team in Kasper Schmeichel and Wesley Fofana.

Rodgers said he respected the owners' frugal approach to the window but admitted "it's a really challenging situation not being able to freshen up this team", adding "it's clear to see" when asked if his squad had been weakened over the summer.

Leicester's lousy start to 2022/23 campaign

  • Leicester 2-2 Brentford - Premier League, August 7
  • Arsenal 4-2 Leicester - Premier League, August 13
  • Leicester 1-2 Southampton - Premier League, August 20
  • Stockport 0-0 Leicester (1-3 on pens) - Carabao Cup, August 23
  • Chelsea 2-1 Leicester - Premier League, August 27
  • Leicester 0-1 Man Utd - Premier League, September 1
  • Brighton 5-2 Leicester - Premier League, September 4
  • Tottenham 6-2 Leicester - Premier League, September 17

Following that hugely underwhelming transfer window, the storm clouds that Rodgers could see lurking have most definitely arrived over the King Power Stadium, with Leicester going into Monday's meeting with Forest on the back of a 5-2 defeat at Brighton and a 6-2 thrashing at Tottenham.

To make matters worse, the Foxes' only win this season came on penalties following a 0-0 draw away to League Two side Stockport in the Carabao Cup second round last month.

There's no doubt that Leicester are at their lowest ebb since Rodgers arrived in February 2019, with things going so badly that the former Liverpool and Celtic boss was seemingly unsure whether he'd still be in charge following this month's international break in the wake of their defeat at Spurs.

The Northern Irishman said "I don't know" when asked whether he thought he'd keep his job and that he would "respect" whatever decision the owners chose to make.

Speaking to Sky Sports after the game against Antonio Conte's side, Jamie Redknapp said he felt Rodgers "sounds like he's resigned that maybe they will make changes" and that he feared for the manager's job security.

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But those fears have not come to pass and Rodgers remains in charge of Leicester - a decision that may be influenced by the club's financial position.

Regardless, Rodgers still has the same issues to resolve - primarily Leicester's defence. The 22 goals they have conceded is the most by any club in Premier League history at this stage of a season. Rodgers' side also rank joint-last for goals conceded from set plays - a theme that dates back to last season.

The inability of Rodgers and his coaches to improve their players' knack of keeping the ball out of their net - particularly from set-pieces - is alarming.

The Leicester squad are, understandably, also showing signs of fragile confidence. No team has dropped more points (11) from winning positions this season, while Youri Tielemans - the midfielder who was regularly linked with an exit in the summer - admitted he was happy for the "fresh air" provided by linking up with the Belgium camp for this month's international fixtures.

Jamie Redknapp said Leicester's owners may have seen the international break as a good time to part ways with manager Brendan Rodgers after their 6-2 loss at Tottenham earlier this month

Perhaps the messages from the manager and his staff have stopped getting through. Perhaps that's one of the reasons why Rodgers was so keen to "freshen up" his squad in the summer, and the fact he was unable to do so has contributed to their continued troubles.

The idea of reinvigorating a squad - even one that is presently successful - in an effort to sustain that success is common among managers.

Speaking to The Coaches' Voice earlier this year, Rene Meulensteen - a long-term member of Sir Alex Ferguson's staff at Manchester United - said of his legendary boss: "When you look at the reasons why he was so successful, I think more than anything it was his ability to refresh things at just the right time.

"When you build a team, you go through different processes - a building process, then a performance process and then you go into decline.

"To be able to avoid that decline, you need to be able to refresh so you can extend the performance process for as long as possible."

Rodgers followed this process, building a squad that came within touching distance of the Champions League on two occasions and experienced glory in the FA Cup, but has been unable to stave off the decline.

It's not as though Leicester's squad is shorn of quality. They still have prized assets such as James Maddison, James Justin and Wilfred Ndidi, while the likes of Harvey Barnes and Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall have emerged as quality first-term contributors.

But Leicester are also still relying on Jonny Evans and Jamie Vardy, who are both in their mid-30s. Evans has been a regular in the defence that has leaked a record number of goals, while Vardy is yet to find the net this season.

Rodgers also has a large number of first-team players whose contracts expire at the end of the season. While he is still including Tielemans and Daniel Amartey on matchdays, Ayoze Perez, Ryan Bertrand, Caglar Soyuncu and Nampalys Mendy appear surplus to requirements, highlighting why Rodgers was so keen to bring new faces into his Leicester squad.

Cooper needs time from notoriously impatient owner

Following their 3-2 defeat against Fulham earlier this month, Nottingham Forest manager Steve Cooper said there were spells in the game when his side 'didn't look like a team yet'

While Leicester's fortunes have deteriorated since that heavy defeat at the City Ground, Forest's had been heading in the opposite direction.

Their return to the Premier League for the first time in 23 years was sealed after a run of just three losses in 23 games, and was celebrated with a stunning spending spree in the summer in a bid to equip Cooper with a squad capable of avoiding an immediate return to the Championship.

More than £150m was spent on 23 new players, while 24 were allowed to walk through the City Ground exit door. Forest were the fifth-highest spenders in the Premier League, with Rodgers surely casting envious glances towards Leicester's East Midlands rivals.

Image: Evangelos Marinakis financed a huge overhaul of Nottingham Forest's squad this summer

But that increased spending power comes with increased responsibility, much of which falls on Cooper. The manager has performed miracles since taking charge, lifting Forest from bottom of the Championship to the Premier League in less than a year, but just four points from their opening seven games has lowered the mood this season.

Forest's most recent outing was a 3-2 home defeat to Fulham - who were also promoted this season - after which Cooper lamented the "self-inflicted" problems his side were encountering.

Mistakes are no surprise given the sheer turnover of players Cooper has had to deal with. Six players - Philip Zinckernagel, James Garner, Djed Spence, Brice Samba, Lewis Grabban and Joe Lolley - all played more than 30 times for Forest last season but have since left the club.

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To further illustrate the huge transition Cooper has had to manage, seven of the 12 players to play more than five times for Forest since their return to the Premier League - Dean Henderson, Taiwo Awoniyi, Neco Williams, Jesse Lingard, Lewis O'Brien, Harry Toffolo and Morgan Gibbs-White - are new arrivals.

While Cooper was no doubt grateful for the backing provided by Evangelos Marinakis, Forest's owner, in the summer, trying to forge a coherent team from the many unfamiliar tools now at his disposal is a daunting task and is clearly going to take time.

Unfortunately for Cooper, there's no guarantee he'll be given that time. Marinakis has churned through managers since taking the keys to the City Ground in May 2017, with Cooper his sixth permanent boss during that time, and he is unlikely to be encouraged by what he has seen after bankrolling such a hefty summer spend.

Marinakis' managers since May 2017 takeover

  • Mark Warburton - March 2017 (appointed by previous owner) until December 2017
  • Aitor Karanka - January 2018 until January 2019
  • Martin O'Neill - January 2019 until June 2019
  • Sabri Lamouchi - June 2019 until October 2020
  • Chris Hughton - October 2020 until September 2021
  • Steve Cooper - September 2021 to present

As a result, Cooper and Rodgers are in similar scenarios despite seeing their sides take very different trajectories since their last meeting seven months ago, with both searching for the formula that will lift their clubs out of the relegation zone.

But while Cooper needs to ensure his numerous new recruits adapt to their new environment, Rodgers must extract more from a group of players that have perhaps become too comfortable with their surroundings.

The manager that has been able to make the most progress over the recent international break is likely to be the one that guides their team to a vital victory on Monday night, while further increasing the pressure on the coach in the opposite dugout.

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