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The Sunday slate for Week 4 of the NFL regular season brings plenty of compelling storylines and premier matchups. After sorting through the day’s 14 matchups, we’ve dialed in on a pair of games that figure to feature very few similarities. We will dive into an epic quarterback showdown between Lamar Jackson and Josh Allen before breaking down the Commanders-Cowboys NFC East matchup.
NFL Week 4 ATS best bets
Bills (-3) vs. Ravens; over/under 51 points
The Bills were without six defensive starters in their Week 3 loss at Miami. Buffalo still managed to outgain the Dolphins by 285 yards, speaking to the team’s talent on both sides of the ball.
Buffalo leads the league in passing yards per game (329) and is second in total yardage (441). At the same time, the Bills’ defense allows an NFL-best 214 total yards per game.
Baltimore boasts a similarly potent offense, one that leads the NFL in points per game (33) and best yards per play average (6.9). However, its defense has not experienced similar success.
The Ravens yield an NFL-worst 457.3 yards per game and 352.7 passing yards per game. That should create a significant edge for Buffalo, which is 20-4 SU and 18-4-2 ATS in its last 21 games when gaining more total yards than its opponent.
Meanwhile, Buffalo has responded well to setbacks in recent seasons. The Bills have lost just one of their last eight games ATS after a SU loss and one of their last nine ATS following an ATS defeat. They won all four games last season after a road loss. Each ensuring victory came by at least 15 points, with Buffalo allowing 17 points or fewer in all four outings.
Baltimore, which knocked off New England last week, has not enjoyed similar follow-up success after its recent ATS wins. In fact, the Ravens have covered just two of their last 11 games following an ATS victory. What’s more, Baltimore has failed to cover any of its last seven games after a run-in with New England.
This should play into Buffalo’s hands, as the Bills have covered nine of their last 10 games during the first four outings of a season when facing an opponent off a double-digit SU win.
The favorite in this head-to-head series has won four straight, with each victory coming by more than this spread. In fact, this line should be a non-issue for Buffalo, which has had 15 straight wins come by at least 12 points. That streak began against Baltimore back during the 2020 postseason and should continue here.
Expect Buffalo to improve to 11-5-1 ATS in its last 17 games as road favorites with a win and cover here. It would be the Bills’ sixth win in their last seven Week 4 games, pushing Baltimore to 11-28-1 ATS in its last 40 October contests.
Our pick: Buffalo -3 over Baltimore
Commanders vs. Cowboys (-3.5); over/under 41 points
Backing a backup quarterback with your money isn’t exactly an enticing setup, but Cooper Rush has done nothing but inspire confidence through three NFL starts. Rush moved to 3-0 after earning a key road victory over New York last Monday.
While Rush was busy transitioning his team successfully intto October, a month in which it has covered four straight games, Washington’s quarterback has had opposite results. Carson Wentz was sacked nine times and hit 17 times in last week’s loss to Philadelphia. Notably, the only team with more sacks than the Eagles this season is Dallas.
The Dallas pass rush dominated New York with five sacks and 24 quarterback pressures, the most in a game this season by any team. What’s more, the Cowboys have held all three opponents to fewer than 20 points, allowing just three touchdowns through three games.
Conversely, the Commanders have conceded over 27 points per game. Washington has been dominated in both games since its Week 1 win over Jacksonville. The Commanders trailed Detroit 22-0 at halftime in Week 2 and Philadelphia 24-0 after three quarters last week.
Washington is just 2-5 ATS in its last seven games after a double-digit home defeat. The Commanders have also covered just three of their last 11 following an ATS loss. Dallas will enjoy this trend, as the Cowboys have covered nine of their last 11 home games during the first four outings of a season when facing an opponent off a straight up and ATS loss.
Dallas has also picked on bad teams and teams within its division. The Cowboys have run off six straight covers against sub .500 foes. They are 21-7 ATS in their last 28 against the NFC East, including 6-1 ATS over their last seven games.
Washington has covered just one of its last five trips to Dallas and three of the last 10 head-to-head meetings overall. Dallas won all seven of those ATS victories outright, as well, with each win coming by at least seven points and an average margin of victory of 19.4 points per contest.
With road games at the Rams and Eagles next, expect Dallas to earn an important win here, paving the way for Prescott’s return.
Our pick: Dallas -3.5 over Washington
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