Tropical Storm Ian forecast to turn back into a hurricane, leading to more flooding in NJ

FRIDAY AFTERNOON FORECAST:Hurricane Ian is coming to NJ: When will the weekend rains start? The latest forecast

Hurricane Ian, which hit Florida as a Category 4 hurricane before being downgraded to a tropical storm, will turn back into a hurricane again later Thursday as it barrels through the Atlantic toward South Carolina, the National Hurricane Center forecast.

And that growing intensity changes the picture slightly for New Jersey.

The forecast for flooding in low-lying areas on the Jersey Shore has increased from minor to moderate for Saturday through Tuesday, Steven DiMartino, owner of NY NJ Pa Weather said Thursday afternoon.

That could mean flooded roadways and possibly even water damage to homes along the water, he said.

But the forecast for rain remains the same: 1 to 4 inches in New Jersey from Friday evening into early Sunday with the greatest amounts in and around Cape May, Wildwood and Atlantic City.

The soggy forecast has already altered some weekend plans.

The Craft and Vendor Fair at Windward Beach Park in Brick has been moved to Saturday, Oct. 8 from 9 a.m. to 2 p.m. Jackson Day has been canceled altogether, the Jackson Day Committee announced Thursday.

Organizers of the LBI Chowderfest, slated for Saturday, were still deciding Thursday afternoon whether the event should be moved to Sunday.

Sunday will be drier, although cloud cover, wind and scattered showers will be present. Then a second wave of moisture, pushed north by tropical air, will lead to more rainfall through Wednesday, DiMartino said.

USA Today:Where will Ian go next? Southeast braces for severe impacts

That second wave is expected to bring as much as an inch of rainfall in all, said Lee Robertson, a meteorologist at the National Weather Service in Mount Holly.

The increased power of Ian as it turns back into a hurricane will mean stronger winds for New Jersey.

The winds are expected to start Friday afternoon and last all the way into Wednesday, DiMartino said.

They will remain between 15 to 30 mph along the Shore and diminish to half that further inland.

The winds trigger the flooding, he said.

“Look at it as a long duration nor’easter that you get in the late fall and winter – that persistent easterly wind and the fact that water isn’t able to exit out like it normally would during low tide.”

Barrier islands and some inner bays are at the greatest risk of flooding in the current forecast, DiMartino said.

Ken Serrano covers breaking news, crime and investigations. Reach him at 732-643-4029 or at kserrano@gannettnj.com.