Russia faces "imminent defeat" in Lyman, an occupied town in Ukraine's northeast, as Kyiv encircles Russian forces in the region as part of its counteroffensive, a U.S.–based think tank said in its latest assessment of the war.
The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) noted that Russian military bloggers were discussing Ukrainian gains around Lyman with "increased concern" on Wednesday, suggesting that Russian forces in the city may face imminent defeat—potentially further undermining their morale.
The think tank cited prominent military correspondents and several Russian military bloggers as saying that Ukrainian troops are moving to complete the envelopment of Russian forces in the city and along the northern bank of the Siverskyi Donets River by advancing from west, north, and northeast positions.
The key supply hub was seized by Russian forces in May, three months after Putin's war against Ukraine began. The city is a key railway junction, and Ukrainian forces may be able to use the area to press on with their successful counteroffensive in the east.
Ukrainian forces are therefore threatening Russian positions and lines of communication that support the Lyman grouping, the ISW said, noting that if Ukraine is successful in retaking Lyman, Russian positions could be threatened along the western Luhansk region border and in the Severodonetsk-Lysychansk area.
It is also likely to result in a collapse of Russian morale, as Russian military leadership and the country's defense ministry has failed to prepare public opinion for a potentially imminent Russian defeat in the city, the ISW's assessment noted.
"Russian military authorities previously failed to set sufficient information conditions for Russian losses following the first stages of the Ukrainian counteroffensives in Kharkiv Oblast, devastating morale and leading to panic among Russian forces across the Eastern axis," the think tank added.
The ISW was referring to a successful lightning counteroffensive by Ukraine earlier this month, which saw Kyiv recapture large swathes of its territory from Russia.
Ukrainian forces say they took back more than 3,000 square miles from Russian forces in less than two weeks, recapturing towns and cutting off Russian supply lines.
Putin responded on September 21 by announcing a partial military mobilization of up to 300,000 citizens, while Russian-installed officials held sham referendums on joining Russia in Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhzhia, and Kherson.
The ISW said the ire of Russian nationalist commentators following Ukraine's counteroffensive likely played a role in driving Putin to announce a partial mobilization.
"Future Ukrainian gains around critical areas in Donetsk and Luhansk Oblast may drive additional wedges between Russian nationalists and military leadership, and between Russian forces and their superiors," the think tank said.
The ISW's assessment came a day after the British Defense Ministry said that over the last few days, Ukraine has pressed its offensive operations near the hub of Lyman.
Uncommon Knowledge
Newsweek is committed to challenging conventional wisdom and finding connections in the search for common ground.
Newsweek is committed to challenging conventional wisdom and finding connections in the search for common ground.
About the writer
Isabel van Brugen is a Newsweek Reporter based in Kuala Lumpur. Her focus is reporting on the Russia-Ukraine war. Isabel ... Read more
To read how Newsweek uses AI as a newsroom tool, Click here.
