When will the remnants of Ian reach NYC?

Hurricane Ian made landfall yesterday as a powerful Category 4 hurricane in Florida. The storm delivered catastrophic impacts to parts of the state yesterday including a dangerous storm surge, destructive winds and flooding rains. The threat for dangerous conditions will likely persist well today as the storm crosses the state, despite weakening.

One of the main reasons that Ian is so impactful is because it has slowed down considerably. The landfall speed was less than 9mph according to the National Hurricane Center. Not only did the strong, damaging winds continue longer than usual – but storm surge and flooding rains are persisting longer than they typically would during a hurricane with “average” forward speed.

The reason that Ian has slowed down so significantly is the same reason we won’t see impacts from the system for a few days – a large, sprawling area of high pressure over the Eastern United States. This area of high pressure is suppressing the system southward and not allowing it to move northward with any real vigor. 

The high pressure is expected to remain in control for the next few days here in NYC, with pleasant Autumn weather – one of the nicest stretches of weather this year. Eventually, though the remnants of Ian and associated tropical moisture will begin to push northward into the Mid-Atlantic states.

That will likely occur by very late Friday evening or Saturday morning. Model guidance suggests that dew points will quickly rise during this time with the airmass feeling much more uncomfortable. By Saturday morning, tropical moisture will begin advecting into the area. Periods of heavy rain are possible as bands of rain move towards the area. Localized flooding is also possible, although it is not expected to be widespread.

The unsettled weather conditions could continue for several days after the tropical moisture gets here, as the remnants of the system become trapped underneath the high pressure to our north. It won’t be a washout every day, but models suggest that showers and storms could be possible each day through at least the early part of next week.

For now, we have a few days of very pleasant weather ahead of us. Let’s enjoy it while we’ve got it!