Over or under: An encore from Kansas State quarterback Adrian Martinez?

On3 imageby:Drew Galloway•09/29/22•

galloway__drew

BEN SINNOTT CATCHES: 2.5

DREW: OVER
How about the game that Kansas State tight end Ben Sinnott had last week against Oklahoma? He reeled in four receptions for 80 yards and was tough to bring down when the ball was in his hands. It seems like he has been open a lot this season and was the major benefactor of Adrian Martinez being more aggressive against the Sooners.

I believe the over hits. Sinnott can record at least three receptions for K-State versus Texas Tech.

DEREK YOUNG: OVER
Sinnott has been reliable in the Kansas State passing game. He rarely drops it and has been an outlet of sorts at a regular clip for Martinez. The two have become very comfortable with one another in the passing game this season. It might be well over 2.5.

ADRIAN MARTINEZ TOTAL TOUCHDOWNS: 3.5

DG: UNDER
Martinez had a heck of a game against Oklahoma and it can’t be overstated how important it was to have him get back on track. I think he can still have a great game in Manhattan on Saturday but not have four touchdowns. Remember, Deuce Vaughn hasn’t had a touchdown for K-State in the last two games.

It is pretty likely he reaches the end zone at least one time on Saturday, if not more.

DY: UNDER
Because I agree with Drew in that Vaughn will reach the end zone on the ground versus the Red Raiders, that really stunts Martinez’s ability to reach four touchdowns. If one thinks both are being achieved, then Kansas State would be scoring 40+ points again. I don’t see that. Under.

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KANSAS STATE INTERCEPTIONS: 0.5

DG: OVER
It feels like it could be an easy over.

Texas Tech quarterbacks have been pretty loose with the ball, throwing seven interceptions in their four games this season. Donovan Smith has already thrown five this year and the K-State secondary has been very opportunistic and tallied seven interceptions already this season.

I would be a little surprised if Kansas State does not record an interception to be honest.

DY: OVER
Agreed. I would be surprised if K-State doesn’t pick off a pass from Donovan Smith. He throws a few a game that can result in a turnover, and that number is always a little higher on the road.

KOBE SAVAGE TACKLES: 6.5

DG: OVER
Kobe Savage was flying all over the field against the Sooners last week. It led to him securing 11 tackles and winning Big 12 Newcomer of the Week. He has had back-to-back games of more than seven tackles and that should continues in Manhattan versus the Red Raiders.

DY: OVER
When answering, it is more important to know that Texas Tech is a bit of the opposite of Oklahoma. While they both play fast and rattle off a ton of offensive plays, or at least want to, the Red Raiders want to be pass-first and the Sooners incorporate more of a running game.

Because of the sheer quantity of plays, and how much Savage is on the field, the over is the correct call.

KANSAS STATE SACKS: 3.5

DG: UNDER
I’ll say under, but I think it could be really close.

Texas Tech has allowed 12 sacks this season and has been pretty shaky protecting the quarterback. The defensive strength for Kansas State is their defensive line. With the Red Raiders struggling in that aspect, the defensive line should dominate the line of scrimmage. However, I still think they come up short of four sacks.

DY: OVER
We discussed it on the 3MAW pregame podcast this week, but it is odd how ineffective Texas Tech has been at protecting Smith. He gets rid of the ball quicker than anyone in the league but they’ve still allowed a lot of sacks and a fairly high sack rate.

On the flip side, K-State has surprisingly not been as disruptive at that part of their game. The defense’s sack rate is just four percent at the moment. With that being said, they are finding other ways to create havoc, including turnovers and the defensive line is still making life uncomfortable for the quarterbacks by batting down balls at the line of scrimmage and collapsing the pocket.

They need to be more efficient and get home when they do bring pressure. Although they were pretty content not sending much towards Oklahoma. Also not helping is being down one of their better pass rushers for most of the last two weeks in Nate Matlack.

More plays means more chances. More plays means more Donovan Smith drop-backs. For what we thought about the Kansas State pass rush heading into the season and the failures that the Red Raiders have had in that facet, it needs to be over for the Wildcats.

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