Virginia has four days of rain ahead, and the heaviest rain now appears to be Friday and into Saturday morning. Occasional rain will also occur Saturday evening, Sunday and Monday.
Many rain totals will be over 3 inches.
TIMING
Get your outdoor plans wrapped up Thursday. There will be no problems with rain for high school football games on Thursday night.
You could receive your first raindrops early Friday morning.
We’re now moving into a “nowcast” mode where we’re watching how the storm is evolving compared to what computer models are suggesting.
And based on that nowcast. a large batch of rain has formed and expanded on the north side of Ian. That rain will push northward hundreds of miles ahead of the circulation center. We’re expecting that rain to reach Virginia by early Friday. Once the rain starts at your location, rainfall for the remainder of your Friday.
I've lowered the temperature forecast due to rain—Friday afternoon will be cool, wet and windy. Temperatures will be in the 50s for most. You’ll be driving in the rain plus low visibility thanks to the wind—be careful on the roads!
I would consider Friday evening as a “washout.”
WIND
The wind will gust 30 to possibly 40mph from the Northeast. This is for late Friday and Saturday.
Scattered power outages are inevitable as one falling limb or tree in the wrong spot can cut power.
FRIDAY RAINFALL AMOUNTS
1 to 2 inches of rain is probable by Friday night and into Saturday morning. The rain will be heavy at times and blowing in the wind. You’ll want heavy rain gear if you’re outside on Friday night.
Saturday morning will be overcast and wet when you awaken. Heavy rain has already occurred.
Saturday is not 24-hour rain. And the forecast is uncertain for how much rain we receive Saturday. I’m phrasing it as “occasional showers of light to moderate rain.”
SECOND LANDFALL FROM IAN
A wildcard, Ian is expected to reemerge in the Atlantic Thursday to Friday, then curve back into the US. A second landfall would occur near Myrtle Beach. The more east the storm goes into the ocean means the longer the storm is in the Atlantic—slight strengthening is possible. Additional strengthening could cause more rain to eventually be pushed into Virginia by Saturday and Sunday—check back for updates on this.
STORM TOTAL RAINFALL
This might change but for now: 4-day (Friday-Monday) rainfall amounts in the 3” to 6” for most including Lynchburg, Roanoke, and the Southside.
Locations most likely to receive 5 to 6 inches of rain are the mountains of Southwest Virginia.
The rain total forecast may change as amounts for Saturday-Monday are too early to nail down yet.
NEXT UPDATE: George Flickinger will host a Facebook Live at 3 p.m. Like his page to get a notification for it.