Tale of the Tape, Predictions: Louisville vs. Boston College
LOUISVILLE, Ky. - Louisville (2-2, 0-2 ACC) is set to face Boston College (1-3, 0-2 ACC) on Saturday, Oct. 1 at 12:00 p.m. EST at Alumni Stadium in Chestnut Hill, Mass. Here's how the Cardinals stack up against the Eagles:
- Rankings:
| Boston College | Louisville | |
|---|---|---|
AP/USA TODAY | NR/NR | NR/NR |
SOS | 94th | 12th |
SP+ | 93rd | 49th |
FPI | 95th | 44th |
Sagarin | 110th | 41st |
- Offensive Statistics:
| Boston College | Louisville | |
|---|---|---|
Total Offense | 121st (283.2) | 45th (449.5) |
Scoring Offense | 110th (20.8) | 95th (24.8) |
Passing Yards | 86th (223.5) | 84th (225.0) |
Yards Per Completion | 110th (10.52) | 51st (12.68) |
Rushing Yards | 128th (59.8) | 14th (224.5) |
First Downs Gained | 105th (69) | 68th (87) |
3rd Down Con. % | 110th (32.8%) | 98th (34.6%) |
4th Down Con. % | 65th (50.0%) | 83rd (45.5%) |
Red Zone Con. % | 80th (81.8%) | 105th (75.0%) |
Turnovers Lost | 64th (6) | 110th (9) |
Interceptions Thrown | 102nd (5) | 63rd (3) |
Fumbles Lost | 10th (1) | 124th (6) |
Tackles For Loss Allowed | 118th (7.75) | 64th (5.25) |
Sacks Allowed | 126th (3.75) | 81st (2.25) |
Avg. Time of Possession | 68th (29:48) | 66th (29:55) |
Key: National Rank out of 131 FBS Teams (Value)
- Defensive Statistics:
| Boston College | Louisville | |
|---|---|---|
Total Defense | 72nd (378.5) | 52nd (350.2) |
Scoring Defense | 85th (27.5) | 48th (20.8) |
Passing Yards Allowed | 68th (222.2) | 29th (187.0) |
Rushing Yards Allowed | 85th (156.2) | 94th (163.2) |
First Downs Allowed | 39th (69) | 53rd (73) |
3rd Down Defensive % | 53rd (34.5%) | 66th (36.8%) |
4th Down Defensive % | 15th (28.6%) | 8th (20.0%) |
Red Zone Defensive % | 44th (80.0%) | 15th (68.8%) |
Turnovers Gained | 101st (4) | 59th (6) |
Interceptions Caught | 66th (3) | 20th (5) |
Fumbles Recovered | 99th (1) | 99th (1) |
Sacks Per Game | 71st (2.00) | 13th (3.25) |
TFL Per Game | 62nd (5.8) | 13th (8.0) |
Key: National Rank out of 131 FBS Teams (Value)
- Special Teams Statistics:
| Boston College | Louisville | |
|---|---|---|
Net Punting | 30th (41.82) | 31st (41.80) |
Avg. Kickoff Return | 33rd (24.43) | 76th (19.88) |
Avg. Kickoff Return Def. | 129th (31.75) | 25th (17.40) |
Avg. Punt Return | 61st (8.33) | 117th (3.00) |
Avg. Punt Return Def. | 58th (5.67) | 76th (7.56) |
Field Goal Attempts | 2-5 | 5-6 |
PAT | 11-11 | 12-12 |
Key: National Rank out of 131 FBS Teams (Value)
- FPI Prediction: Per ESPN's Football Power Index, the Cardinals have a 75.2 percent chance to win against the Eagles. Louisville has an FPI rating of 6.2 (44th overall), whereas Boston College has an FPI rating of -6.2 (95th overall).
- SP+ Prediction:
Per Bill Connelly's SP+ model, the Cardinals have a 73.55 percent chance to take down the Eagles. Louisville has an SP+ rating of 5.7 (49th overall), whereas Boston College has an SP+ rating of -7.5 (93rd overall).
Weekly Expected Wins Mark:
- Preseason: 6.57
- Post-Week 1: 4.74
- Post-Week 2: 5.70
- Post-Week 3: 5.08
- Post-Week 4: 5.71
- Personal Prediction: Louisville 35, Boston College 17.
(Photo of Marshon Ford: Jamie Rhodes - USA TODAY Sports)
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