Macro guru and Real Vision CEO Raoul Pays says that he’s loading up on crypto assets as he expects economic data to dramatically deteriorate over the next several months.
In a new discussion on Twitter Spaces, the former Goldman Sachs executive says that risk-on assets like stocks and cryptocurrencies shouldn’t drop much further as economic turmoil has already been mostly priced in.
“We will see the economic data over the next few months utterly collapse. We will see the inflation narrative utterly collapse, and we’ll be left with the tatters. And the question the market’s asking is ‘does that mean equities need to go lower or crypto needs to go lower?’
And my viewpoint on that is I don’t know, but possibly not much lower, and the reason being is a lot is priced in. This is the most negative sentiment I’ve ever seen on any survey in the last 40 or 50 years in financial markets, whether it’s AAII [American Association of Individual Investors], institutional investor, whether its market positioning, whether it’s the BOA [Bank of America] Merrill Lynch survey, these are terrifyingly negative sentiment.
So the market struggles to make a proper new big low. Now, it could happen, we could get a 10% spike lower in the S&P 500, all possible, I’m not a buyer at these levels.
I have been buying crypto recently. I managed to get the low in June and added significantly then. So I think the markets [have] priced in a lot of the apocalypse. Everything thinks ‘well, it needs to all go down on the next earnings leg.’
Despite a series of rate hikes and hawkish sentiment from the Federal Reserve, Pal still says he expects the Fed to pivot back to lower rates, boosting risk assets.
“Meanwhile, the bond market is completely out of kilter with all other macro and every single other asset class at a rate that has never occurred in history before and this is going to accelerate the issues that we face.
But in the end, I’m still a believer that bond yields come down much sharper than people expect over time and the Fed are forced to change their stance.”
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