Clemson vs. NC State college football preview, prediction
Clemson vs. NC State football preview, prediction
Week 5 college football schedule: Clemson vs. NC State
How to watch
When: Sat., Oct. 1
Time: 7:30 p.m. Eastern
TV: ABC network
Stream: fuboTV (Start your free trial)
Related: College football scores | College football rankings | College football schedule
Odds, point spread, betting lines
Line: Clemson -6.5
O/U: 40
Moneyline: NCST +200 CLEM -300
FPI pick: Clemson 83.5%
Related: Clemson vs. NC State odds, spread, lines: Week 5 college football picks, predictions
Clemson vs. NC State: What you need to know
1. Clemson on the back end. There's no papering over the fact that Clemson played a dismal game of football in the secondary last weekend. Granted, it was Sam Hartman doing it, but the Wake quarterback was able to throw his receivers open all day and passed for a school record 6 TD passes. Injuries played a hand, as corners Sheridan Jones and Malcolm Greene and safety Andrew Mukuba were out, and the Tigers allowed 300 air yards for the second straight game. Not ideal considering who's next on the docket.
2. NC State can go deep. Wolfpack quarterback Devin Leary may not be putting up quite the numbers he did last season, when he scored 35 times and threw just 5 picks, but he's still more than capable to working Clemson's back seven. A 64% passer right now, Leary has 9 TDs and 2 picks and will go against a secondary that struggled in pass coverage.
3. DJ finding his way. Once upon a time, there was real talk that Clemson might make a switch at quarterback. But since that preseason speculation, Uiagalelei has steadily improved his game and this offense has along with him. Coming off his best performance since the Notre Dame trip in 2020, the QB had 371 yards and 5 TD passes against Wake and personally kept his team in that game when it became a shootout. NC State is allowing the ACC's fewest air yards per attempt (4.9), but Clemson's receivers are making more than 12 ypc so far.
Clemson vs. NC State: Fast Facts
+ This is the 1st game where both Clemson and NC State are ranked in the AP top 10
+ Clemson is 137-5 when leading after 3 quarters under Dabo Swinney and 12-27 when trailing
+ NC State is 8th in FBS allowing 11.8 points per game
+ Clemson is 20th nationally with 43.8 points per game
+ NC State is 1st in ACC and 6th in FBS with 94.7 pass efficiency defense rating
+ Clemson is 43rd nationally with 275 passing yards per game
+ Wolfpack is 7th in FBS and 2nd in ACC with a .250 third down defensive mark
+ Clemson is 8th nationally allowing 78.5 rushing yards per game
+ NC State has allowed opponents in the red zone just 5 times, the 2nd best mark nationally, but allowed 3 TDs on those drives
+ Clemson has won 11 of 17 games against AP top 10 teams in the College Football Playoff era
+ Devin Leary is 16-3 as NC State's starting QB the last 2 years
+ Clemson back Will Shipley has rushed for a TD in 7 straight games, the nation's 2nd longest streak
+ NC State has thrown 11 TD passes to 10 receivers and 18 players have caught a pass, 2nd in ACC
+ Clemson is 42-7 in night games since 2015
+ NC State is 10th nationally allowing 81.8 rushing yards per game
Clemson vs. NC State Prediction
Properly applied, a defense can get to Leary this season. The quarterback has been held to under 20 pass completions in 3 of 4 games and predictably had his best day against UConn last weekend.
Clemson may struggle on the back end, but it's not the Huskies. And when accounting for the Tigers' variety of edge rushing packages, this front seven should steadily gain the advantage at the line as the game wears on.
Not before Leary rips off a few long passes and a score or two to keep this close. Looking at the opener against East Carolina, the Pack had issues holding the edges in pass protection and finishing drives on the ground.
Both teams could struggle moving the ball on the ground, but Clemson's air game has developed to the point where Uiagalelei should be able to create some passing alleys in the deeper portion of the field. But it'll be close.
College Football HQ Prediction: Clemson 33, NC State 30
College football rankings
According to AP top 25 poll
- Georgia
- Alabama
- Ohio State
- Michigan
- Clemson
- USC
- Kentucky
- Tennessee
- Oklahoma State
- NC State
- Penn State
- Utah
- Oregon
- Ole Miss
- Washington
- Baylor
- Texas A&M
- Oklahoma
- BYU
- Arkansas
- Minnesota
- Wake Forest
- Florida State
- Pittsburgh
- Kansas State