NFL Odds: Three Week 4 Underdogs Who Could Pull Off Upsets

Week 4 of the NFL season gets underway Thursday night with one of just two remaining undefeated teams getting put to the test.

The Miami Dolphins will head to Cincinnati where the defending AFC champion Bengals hope to build off their first win of the season last week. It figures to be quite the test for a Miami team coming off an emotional win last week over the previously unbeaten Bills.

That there are only two unblemished teams — Miami and the Philadelphia Eagles — left after just three weeks speaks to how wide-open the league is in 2022. That makes trying to predict winners even more difficult on a weekly basis. We’ve pinpointed some of the underdogs to watch every week, and in Week 3, two of three pulled the outright upset.

Here are three more for Week 4, starting with the aforementioned Eagles’ upstart opponent.

(+6.5) Jacksonville Jaguars at Philadelphia Eagles
It’s been a lot of travel for the Jaguars, who were in LA last week and now head up to Philly, but they have been quite impressive through three weeks. In fact, the advanced stats put the Jags’ offense in the same neighborhood as teams like Baltimore, Kansas City, Miami and these Eagles. Even more impressive is a defense that ranks third in the league in EPA allowed per play that has been especially stout against the run. This obviously is their toughest test of the season, especially with back-to-back road games, but Jacksonville is a far more impressive outfit under Doug Pederson, who seems to have unlocked vital development for Trevor Lawrence and just established a far better program.

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(+3.5) Tennessee Titans at Indianapolis Colts
The major concern with the Titans here is the defense. There’s no denying that, with Tennessee allowing 6.4 yards per play through three games, the third-worst rate in the league. The Colts, for their offensive issues, have at times been explosive with 19 “big plays” (runs of 10-plus yards or passes of 20-plus yards) through three weeks. So that is a tough matchup for the Titans defense. However, the Tennessee offense showed signs of life last week, scoring 24 in a win over Vegas. When the Titans move the ball, they’ve been able to cash it in, scoring touchdowns on a league-best 85.7% of their red-zone trips. The Colts, meanwhile, have the worst red-zone defense in the NFL so far. That half-point looms large, too, in what could be a field-goal game in the division.

(+3) Baltimore Ravens vs. Buffalo Bills
This game has the highest total of the week for a reason. You have two of the best offenses in the NFL led by quarterbacks who can break things open in a heartbeat. One related reason to take a look at Baltimore here is the injury situation in the Buffalo secondary. The Bills’ top three cornerbacks are injured, forcing them to pluck Xavier Rhodes off the street this week. And now they’ve gotta deal with Lamar Jackson, who’s the MVP frontrunner through three weeks in large part because of his continued development as a passer. Here’s a great stat uncovered this week by ESPN: Jackson has three touchdown passes and zero interceptions when throwing into tight windows this season. A year ago, he threw no touchdowns in four picks. That could be moot against a depleted secondary, of course. It does seem like Jackson is poised for another big performance, which Baltimore will need to keep pace with the Bills, but they can do it which could lead to a Ravens outright win.