At least 260,000 Russians have fled since Putin’s military call-up, Western officials believe

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More than 260,000 Russians have fled since Vladimir Putin announced partial military mobilisation following serious battlefield defeats in Ukraine, according to Western officials and the country’s independent media.

Some estimates now put the number who have gone into exile since the invasion in February at 400,000.  The flow is expected to continue, especially from Russian Federation republics in central Asia where, locals complain, a disproportionate number of people have been called up.

The exodus is adding to economic problems caused by international sanctions, Western officials say, with the loss of skilled and educated Russians who are unlikely to return in the short term and who are instead seeking to take their families abroad to join them.

The independent newspaper Novaya Gazeta Europe, now banned in Russia, reported that officials in Moscow have acknowledged 261,000 have left Russia in just four days.

An official told the newspaper that the security and defence ministry in Moscow is seeking to persuade Putin to close borders to men of military age “before it’s too late”. The government has admitted “errors” were made during the military call-up. A Kremlin spokesman said “there are cases where the decree has been violated. These mistakes will be corrected.”

A Western official said: “The mobilisation announcement means more and more Russians are coming to understand that they are being lied to. That’s why we’re seeing more protests, thousands leaving the country and refusing to go and serve.

“Around 30 per cent of Russians have international passports. So if you’ve got a passport, you are probably already in the more educated, more highly skilled segment of the population... many of them plan to stay outside, so this is an exodus of skilled workers … when you add the February exodus to the numbers, this is quite a big proportion of Russia’s economic capability and skilled workforce.”

Russian authorities appear to be placing checks to try and stop movement across some frontiers. Georgia, which has a visa-free arrangement with Moscow, saw large numbers begin to arrive since mobilisation began more than a week ago.

Now a “conscription task force” has been placed there to hand out control orders to those called to the frontline in Ukraine. Russian news agency TASS stated that the force will include “representatives of the military registration and enlistment office [who will] check on the road whether a person is liable for military service, whether he is subject to conscription”.

Western officials were unsure whether popular discontent will lead to any attempt at regime change. “There is a lot of commentary about the hierarchy, there’s a lot of unhappiness. I’m not predicting that we will see any imminent change, [but] if you’d asked me a year ago, I’d have said this current team in power will probably last into the 2030s. I think that’s much less clear [now],” said an official.