It's been seven games since Aaron Judge hit his 60th homer against the Pittsburgh Pirates, but in the baseball world it's felt like an eternity.
It's Judge's longest homerless streak since Aug. 13 to Aug. 21 (nine games), and tied for his second-longest drought of the year.
While that's more a testament to the torrid home run-hitting pace Judge been on this season than an indictment of his recent play, it's hard to not feel the tension as the end of the season draws nigh. The Yankees clinched the AL East with their win over the Blue Jays Tuesday, but that felt like a footnote in comparison to Judge's night: A four-walk game, the second time in his career he's drawn that many and the first time since Sep. 4, 2017 against the Orioles.
Aaron Judge Walks For The Fourth Time Tonight. pic.twitter.com/Jugpujfmek
— Mr Matthew CFB (@MrMatthewCFB) September 28, 2022
Judge went into a full count in all five of his plate appearances, the first of which culminated in a lineout to Matt Chapman that came off the bat at 96.8 mph.
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Aaron Judge stats since last home run
If one were just to look at Judge's batting average, it would be perfectly reasonable to think he's pressing, just looking to hit No. 61, tie Roger Maris, and restart the circus with No. 62. But his numbers tell a very different story.
After his 0 for 1 night Tuesday, Judge is batting .263 since his last home run. But his slash line provides important context. His expanded stats are .263/.548/.421. By comparison, his year-long stats are .314/.422/.695.
So Judge's slugging stats are down (we're talking about a home run drought, after all). But the connotation behind pressing is that he's expanding his zone to hit this home run. And that simply isn't the case.
Judge's walk rate since his last home run is now 39 percent (12 walks in 31 appearances), a far cry from his 16 percent rate this season.
Aaron Judge has been walked 12 times since his last HR and 27 times in September. 🤯pic.twitter.com/vKW3l0yLI8
— DraftKings (@DraftKings) September 28, 2022
But that's only half the story. His strikeout rate is 26 percent, just a tick up from his 25 percent K-rate on the season.
All of these need the caveat that 31 plate appearances is a more flexible number than 667, his season total. But these stats don't paint the picture of a player who's pressing. Rather, Judge is as patient as ever. But a combination of pitchers exercising extreme caution and Judge keeping his strike zone the same has led to this "drought."
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Is Aaron Judge pressing to get home run No. 61?
According to the New York Post's Jon Heyman, a National League scout believes Judge is forcing the issue.
“Most definitely he has been pressing," the scout said Sunday, per Heyman. "With all his friends and family here, that puts a lot of pressure on him. Tough duty, but I’m sure he’s glad to be in it. He’ll get it when he’s not pressing or trying so hard.”
With all due respect to that scout, Judge doesn't seem to be doing so at all. If anything, it's somewhat remarkable how much patience he's shown. As Judge continues to chase history, he showed frustration with himself for chasing a pitch out of the zone in his final at-bat and fouling it off Tuesday. He's as patient as ever, and he has quite possibly the best handle of his strike zone in the league right now.
While the bright lights and constant look-ins are undoubtedly distracting, Judge doesn't seem distracted.
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Are pitchers pitching around Aaron Judge?
This question is harder to answer, because they probably aren't consciously.
Judge has been intentionally walked once in this time-frame, but it made sense from a strategy perspective. The Blue Jays walked Judge to load up the bases with two outs and face Anthony Rizzo. They didn't want Judge to beat them. That's reasonable.
Judge was diplomatic in talking about that intentional walk after the game, saying "I trust every single guy in our lineup and every single guy on our bench ... I'll show up tomorrow and get it done," per the YES Network.
But a batter doesn't pick up this walk rate without pitchers pitching him very cautiously. The Blue Jays' Kevin Gausman explicitly said he doesn't "want to be the answer to a trivia question," per Mitch Bannon. That mindset must affect the way a pitcher approaches an at-bat.
The Red Sox said they were going to attack Judge in their series, with Rich Hill being particularly adamant the record meant nothing.
“You go out there and you make your pitches and you attack the hitter just as you would attack in the beginning of the season,” Hill said, per the New York Post. While Hill upheld that, striking out Judge twice, Michael Wacha and John Schreiber were far more conservative the night before, walking Judge three times and giving him six strikes on 19 pitches in his first four at-bats.
With the AL East now tied up, the Yankees have eight games left on the season. Judge will get more opportunities, but between his and the pitchers' approaches, they may be fewer and further between. Perhaps with the division clinched and the Yankees all but settled in the No. 2 spot, Judge will start to swing a bit more freely. But it's more likely he keeps his meticulous approach at the plate.