GATHERING STORM — With Hurricane Ian expected to hit Florida’s Gulf Coast by Wednesday evening, the evacuation orders and flight cancellations have already started. So have the preparations by the two politicians most on the line, President Joe Biden and Gov. Ron DeSantis.

Heavy rain is pouring down across the state as officials sound the alarm about the approaching threat. The Category 3 storm slammed into Cuba earlier today, with winds hitting speeds of about 125 miles per hour. The storm is projected to gain strength overnight and into Wednesday as it barrels toward the U.S.

Florida emergency responders are bolstering search-and-rescue efforts to prepare for potential deadly flooding and storm surges. With Ian looming as the first major hurricane to make a direct landfall on Tampa since 1946, government officials in Florida and Washington are scrambling to prepare for the worst.

Biden is receiving regular briefings about the approaching storm and said today the administration is “on alert and in action ready to help.” Biden also held separate calls with three Florida mayors this morning: Jane Castor of Tampa, Ken Welch of St. Petersburg and Frank Kibbard of Clearwater. He has not yet spoken to DeSantis, the White House said today.

At Biden’s request, FEMA Administrator Deanne Criswell told reporters she spoke to DeSantis on the phone to discuss his concerns and priorities for the state’s response. Her regional administrator is also on the ground with the governor.

FEMA is working with the Coast Guard, the Department of Defense, the Department of Interior and state officials to coordinate search and rescue efforts in Miami. The agency also has 128,000 gallons of fuel, 3.7 million meals and 3.5 million liters of water ready for use during storm recovery.

On the ground in Florida, DeSantis today urged state residents under evacuation orders to seek higher ground and warned that citizens across much of the state could see power outages, gas shortages and downed cell phone towers. DeSantis also called up 5,000 Florida National Guard troops to help with hurricane preparedness, while 2,000 guardsmen have come in from other states.

DeSantis has thanked the Biden administration for jumping in to “help,” while the White House said this week that any past political scuffles with the Florida Republican have nothing to do with the federal response.

Even as the White House and DeSantis, a top 2024 presidential prospect, took pains to focus on the looming hurricane, the political context was hard to miss. The leadership challenges of natural disasters can make or break politicians. Both DeSantis and Biden will be judged by their response to a potentially catastrophic storm, as well as their ability to put politics aside during a time of peril.

For DeSantis, who is preparing to lead his state through his first major hurricane since taking office, the stakes are particularly high. His meteoric rise within the GOP is a testament to his political talents, but now comes an even tougher challenge, requiring an entirely different set of skills. Other Florida Republican governors — such as Jeb Bush and Rick Scott — burnished their national stature with their performances.

Writing from Tallahassee, Fla., POLITICO’s Matt Dixon explains the backdrop: “DeSantis faces the true test of any Florida governor.”

Welcome to POLITICO Nightly. Reach out with news, tips and ideas at [email protected]. Or contact tonight’s author at [email protected] or on Twitter at @MyahWard.

Poll Watcher

Welcome to poll watcher, a new section from POLITICO Nightly that — with midterms fast approaching — will keep you locked in on polls that cut through the noise.

What'd I Miss?

— Jan. 6 panel postpones last hearing due to Hurricane Ian: The Jan. 6 select committee’s Wednesday hearing has been postponed as Hurricane Ian bears down on Florida, panel leaders announced today. The hearing was expected to be the last from the select panel, likely highlighting former President Donald Trump’s continued efforts to delegitimize the results of the 2020 election he lost. The committee was expected to feature testimony from members of Trump’s Cabinet it interviewed in August, who told lawmakers about internal discussions to invoke the 25th Amendment — an attempt to remove Trump from power in the final days of his presidency.

— Biden’s student debt relief faces first major legal challenge: A conservative legal group today sued to block the Biden administration from canceling large amounts of outstanding federal student debt for tens of millions of Americans, bringing the first major legal challenge to a policy that’s expected to be litigated extensively. The lawsuit argues the Biden administration lacks the power to enact the sweeping debt relief program on its own without congressional approval. It also argues the 2003 law giving the U.S. Education Department the power to modify the terms of federal student loans during national emergencies is unconstitutional.

— Newsom signs legislation aimed at protecting abortion: Gov. Gavin Newsom today signed roughly a dozen laws aimed at turning California into an abortion sanctuary. With the midterms just weeks away and a number of the state’s congressional races hinging on the issue, the governor approved a sweeping reproductive rights package designed to shield patients and clinicians from criminal investigations, defray the costs of traveling to California for the procedure and expand the number of people who can perform abortions, among other changes. Voters in November will also decide whether to enshrine the right to an abortion in the state’s constitution.

— Senate advances funding bill after Manchin punts his energy plan: The Senate easily advanced a short-term government funding bill today after Democratic Sen. Joe Manchin conceded defeat on his push to combine the funding fix with his energy permitting package. Congress must pass the stopgap bill, which would fund the government through Dec. 16, by Friday in order to avert a shutdown. Majority Leader Chuck Schumer said on the floor that he and Manchin would “continue to have conversations about the best way” to move forward on the permitting effort before the end of the year.

— Federal appeals court punts on writer’s suit against Trump over rape denial: A federal appeals court handed Trump an incremental win today in a libel suit brought by writer E. Jean Carroll over the former president’s denial of her claim that he raped her in a New York department store dressing room in the 1990s. A divided panel of the 2nd Circuit Court of Appeals ruled that a lower court judge erred when he concluded that Trump, as president, was not covered by a federal law that can be used to shield federal employees from liability over incidents related to their work.

AROUND THE WORLD

LOOSE CANNON — U.S. and allied intelligence agencies are stepping up efforts to detect any Russian military moves or communications that might signal that Vladimir Putin has ordered the use of nuclear weapons in Ukraine, according to five current and former U.S. officials, writes Bryan Bender.

But any indications that the Russian leader has decided to unleash the unthinkable — in a desperate attempt to re-seize the initiative or bully the international community to meet his demands — could come too late, they warned.

Most of Russia’s aircraft, along with its conventional missile and rocket launchers, can also deliver smaller, tactical nuclear weapons. Those weapons are designed for more targeted use on the battlefield than strategic arms such as intercontinental ballistic missiles, which give off tell-tale signs when their units are put on alert or mustered in training exercises.

That means that unless Putin or his commanders want the world to know in advance, the U.S. might never know when Russian forces have swapped out conventional munitions for atomic bombs.

Putin has made veiled references since the Russian invasion of Ukraine in February that he might resort to using nuclear or chemical arms to change the course of the battle or if Russia itself is threatened. However, those threats grew bolder last week when he said he was prepared to “use all the means available to us,” including “various weapons of destruction.”

“I’m not bluffing,” he added.

Nightly Number

RADAR SWEEP

OFF A CLIFF — For years, much of Europe has gotten cheap energy from oil reserves in Russia. Now, with that prospect more difficult due to ongoing war and sanctions, Europe has plunged into an energy crisis, with prices skyrocketing. Still, it could and very well might get a lot worse as temperatures drop this winter. What’s the worst-case scenario? And how can this be stopped or slowed? Devika Rao writes for The Week.

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