Will Hurricane Ian deliver heavy rain to Northeast Ohio?

CLEVELAND, Ohio – Once Hurricane Ian finishes pummeling the South, what are the chances that the remnants will make their way to Northeast Ohio and further dampen areas that have seen heavy rains in recent days?

Not good, said Kirk Lombardy, meteorologist with the National Weather Service.

Computer models show Ian, forecast to be as bad as a Category 4 storm when it reaches the west coast of Florida just south of Tampa on Wednesday evening, moving north but stalling out over Tennessee, Kentucky and the Carolinas, Lombardy said.

While sometimes hurricanes from the South will bring heavy rains to the Cleveland, the high winds aloft that make up the jetstream are weak at the moment and not expected to push the remnants into Ohio.

Lombardy likened it to a leaf floating down a stream. It can hit fast moving water and be pushed along or enter a still section of the stream where it just kind of floats. That latter appears to be the case with Ian.

The expectation is for Ian to have “very little if any impact as of right now,” Lombardy said Tuesday morning, " ... but that all can change obviously with whatever that thing does.”

For some areas of Northeast Ohio, Ian’s expected path will provide welcome relief.

Recent lake effect rain has been heavy in some areas, and flood watches have been issued for Cuyahoga County and points east..

The rain gauge at Cleveland Hopkins International Airport reported 0.69 inches for Monday, Lombardy said, whereas rainfall across the eastern counties of Lake, Geauga, Ashtabula, and the Pennsylvania counties of Crawford and Erie, generally saw between 2 inches and 4 inches on Monday, with some local areas seeing more.

For the month, through Monday, rainfall at the airport totaled 2.94 inches, a half-inch below normal, he said.

If heavy rains continue east of Cleveland, farmers there could have trouble getting their harvesting equipment into soybean and corn fields, Ann Chanon, agriculture and natural resources extension educator for Lake County said, “but hopefully this rain will let up and we’ll get some good drying weather and harvest can proceed.”

As for the vineyards, she said, the recent rain and colder weather has slowed the ripening of wine grapes, but not to the point where it should impact the harvest. Excessive rain can also lead to fungal diseases, she said, but that’s not a concern at the moment either.

The forecast turns dry on Thursday.