3 Bold Predictions For The Indianapolis Colts Week 4 Game

1(a). The Colts Get Blessed with Another Muffed Punt

The Tennessee Titians lead the NFL in muffed punts this season, with three. This bold prediction is very dependent on the weather. If Colts Owner Jim Irsay decides the weather is appropriate, he will instruct the Lucas Oil Stadium staff to open the roof for the 1:00 pm EST kickoff.

With the roof open, the Sun and its’ blinding rays have a chance to effect the sight of punt returners. Just ask Skyy Moore of the Kansas City Chiefs.

It doesn’t matter if it is Kylen Granson or Aston Dulin, one of these gunners will fly down the field in pursuit of the ball. Both are ready to find the ball on the field after a miscue, or simply bring the PR to the turf at full speed.

Special Team Coordinator Bubba Ventrone will have his group ready to take advantage on any mistakes made by the Titans.

1(b). Isaiah Rodgers Sr. takes a Kickoff to the House

You can call this one a hunch (just like the rest of my “bold predictions”). Rodgers Sr. is a dangerous returner with break-neck speed and an eye for the open lane. He is primed to do something special.

Rodgers Sr. was a couple blocks, or missed tackles away from taking one of the two Chiefs’ kickoffs to the endzone for six, in Week 3. He had two returns and averaged 28.5 yards per return. Just like the first prediction, this one will come to fruition with the help of special teams guru Ventrone.

2. Kwity Paye and His Back-up(s) Will Tally Four Total Sacks

Paye is starting to back-up the preseason hype, which was stirred up by bloggers like me, with some solid play. In three games Paye has recorded two sacks and seven other quarterback pressures. Paye’s back of tricks may or may not have grown. According to his offseason instructor @DlineCoachEd on twitter, Paye had those tools since entering the league, but it did take some time to sharpen them.

Paye is showing his tenacity and ability to get to the quarterback, but he can not create pressure by himself. The other starters, Yannick Ngakoue, DeForest Buckner, and Grover Stewart will be doing their jobs but that is not always getting to the QB.

Either Ngakoue or Buckner will face double, or triple-teams for the majority of the game. Stewart will continue his mission of blowing up every snap, so this leave Kwity Paye, or the rotation behind him one-one-one with the right tackle of the Titans.

Paye Will Need Help From the Bench

Before I detail the poor play from the Titans right tackle, I want to look into the performances of the rotational defensive ends for the Colts. Players such as Ifeadi Odenigbo, Ben Banogu, and Dayo Odeyingbo make up this rotational core.

All three players are listed on Pro Football Focus as defensive RIGHT ends, while Paye is the only left end. Paye played 28 of the 47 defensive snaps in Week 3, so someone had to rotate in behind him. Odenigbo, Banogu, and Odeyingbo across three weeks have totaled 35 snaps. On these snaps these players have recorded two QB hits and three hurries, totaling five quarterback pressures.

These numbers are not eye-popping, but whoever fills in behind Paye will have one of the most lop-sided match-ups of the season.

Rookie right tackle Nicholas Petit-Frere was drafted by Tennessee with the 69th overall pick in the 2022 NFL draft, nice. This has been the high point of his short NFL carrier. In his last two games, facing the Buffalo Bills and Las Vegas Raiders, Petit-Frere has allowed seven pressures on 60 snaps (11.66% of snaps).

This point is emphasized when looking at PFF’s “true pass set (TPS)” stats. Petit-Frere was featured in 22 TPS in the past two games. On these snaps he allowed five total pressures (22.7% of snaps). Whoever lines up on the left side of the defensive line will be looking to take advantage of this weak spot in the Titian’s o-line.

3. Jonathan Taylor Will Double-Up Derick Henry in Rush Yardage

This is a very bold prediction, probably the boldest of the list, but it comes behind mild boring statistics. Before the stats, comes general thoughts of scenarios where this is possible. The Colts must keep the same mentality on offense and milk the clock with Taylor, this will limit the snaps of Henry.

This is starvation of Henry could be amplified if the Colts can take an early lead. As this would force the Titans into a more pass first offense, and I am not counting Taylor or Henry’s receiving yards, because this is my bold perdition so I make the stipulations.

Now you can not simply stop Derrick Henry. Even with his limited production this season, he has still shown flashes of his former-self, the Rushing King. The Colts’ defense will need to “keep the same energy”, like Zaire Franklin stated in his post-game tweet. I’m unsure if Franklin was speaking to his team, or to the negative fans who had already scrapped this season, but that is another story.

Back to football, Henry will break off some big plays, it’s what he does. If the defense can emphasize rallying to the ball and making sound tackles, they will do a good job in limiting Henry’s game-wrecking ability.

Derrick Henry’s 2022 Production and What he Might to Against the Colts

For reference these are the stats for the three defenses that Henry has faced, and of course the Colts.

These are Henry’s numbers against the listed teams.

Against a great overall defense, the Buffalo Bills, Henry had one of the worst performances of his carrier. His yards per carry fell well below the average allowed by the Bills this season. That does not sound like the old Henry.

The Colts’ run defense, led by Grover Stewart, are allowing less yards per carry than the Bills, while being on the field for 26 more run plays.

If the Colts can create lanes for Jonathan Taylor on offense and continue their dominance on run defense then this bold prediction will come to fruition the Indianapolis Colts.