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Buy or Sell 2022 NBA Lottery Teams to Make 2023 Playoffs

Zach Buckley

For the 14 teams denied entry to the 2022 NBA playoff party, the promise of the upcoming 2022-23 campaign is a reminder they don't have to be resigned to the same fate.

Not most of them, at least.

While a few squads have seemingly already committed to piling up losses and increasing their draft lottery odds in hopes of adding a Victor Wembanyama or Scoot Henderson, the majority haven't made that concession. They're out to reverse their fortune and use the fuel from last season's sorrows to power them into the 2023 postseason.

Most, however, won't be able to make that jump. There just aren't enough openings to accommodate a huge party of new playoff teams. A fortunate few, though, will make the cut.

Who will be so lucky? Well, it's funny you asked, as we're here to forecast the fates of all 14 lottery teams by buying or selling their postseason chances.

Long-term Rebuilders and Tankers

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Detroit Pistons

The additions of lottery picks Jaden Ivey and Jalen Duren to a young Pistons core already featuring the likes of Cade Cunningham, Saddiq Bey, Killian Hayes, Isaiah Stewart and Marvin Bagley III should have the Motor City excited. Still, there should also be the recognition that the excitement is tied to the team's long-term potential and not its immediate outlook.

The Pistons could be demonstrably better this season and still never sniff the playoff field. Detroit's 59 losses in 2021-22 were the fourth-most in franchise history.

Houston Rockets

It's possible the Rockets assembled their next playoff core over the past two drafts as they added seven first-rounders, including potential centerpieces in Jalen Green, Alperen Sengun and Jabari Smith Jr. Green took a star turn after the All-Star break (22.1 points on 47.6/38.7/75.6 shooting), Sengun flashed a wealth of offensive skills and Smith was expected to go first overall this summer before mini-sliding to Space City at No. 3.

The problem is Green is the senior member of that trio, and he won't be able to legally down an adult beverage until February. This roster is ridiculously young, and it will only get greener once Houston brokers the seemingly inevitable Eric Gordon trade

Indiana Pacers

The Pacers finally pulled the plug last season, trading away Domantas Sabonis ahead of the deadline and Malcolm Brogdon over the summer. Subsequent trades involving one (or both) of Myles Turner and Buddy Hield would shock exactly no one. Indy finally seems ready to embrace the rebuild, and it's willing to take a few lumps now to reach the potential prize down the line.

"This is the path we want to go down," Pacers president Kevin Pritchard said, per Gregg Doyel of the Indianapolis Star. "But it only gets us so far. There's a freaking ceiling. What I want to do is remove the ceiling, and it takes time."

Indy may not be shield-your-eyes brutal, as Tyrese Haliburton has a non-zero chance of making the All-Star Game, Hield and Turner will contribute as long as they're around and up-and-comers like Chris Duarte, Jalen Smith and Isaiah Jackson could make big steps forward. Still, the Pacers seem committed to seeing this rebuilding effort to completion, even if that only means maximizing lottery odds for the 2023 talent grab.

Oklahoma City Thunder

At some point, the Thunder will decide they don't actually need more draft picks and will start converting their many assets into on-court contributors. That turnaround will not happen this season, though.

They've already ruled out No. 2 pick, Chet Holmgren, for the entire season with a foot injury, and an MCL sprain will shelve Shai Gilgeous-Alexander at the start of training camp. Oklahoma City will continue exercising caution wherever it can, as it keeps tanking its way toward a brighter future.

Orlando Magic

The Magic are relatively interesting, as they fielded an impressive young core even before adding top pick Paolo Banchero, the draft's most polished scorer, this summer. Throw in the returns of Jonathan Isaac and Markelle Fultz—unfortunately delayed by a fractured toe—and Orlando could be fun.

It won't be good, though. Not playoff-good, at least. This offense was grotesque last season, ranking in the bottom five of efficiency, points, field-goal shooting and three-point accuracy. Banchero's arrival and further seasoning of the incumbents will help, but even mediocrity appears out of reach for this attack.

San Antonio Spurs

Already in 2022, the Spurs have traded away: Bryn Forbes, Thaddeus Young, Derrick White and Dejounte Murray. With Jakob Poeltl and Josh Richardson unsigned beyond this season, further swaps could absolutely be in the cards.

In other words, get ready for San Antonio to have the least number of recognizable faces in the Association. Oh, and Keldon Johnson, the most productive player on the roster, will lose at least parts of training camp and the preseason to a dislocated shoulder.

Charlotte Hornets: Sell

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Not to bum out Buzz City here, but Hornets fans should brace themselves for a long 2022-23 season.

While the Hornets just produced their first winning record in six seasons, their momentum immediately halted with Miles Bridges' offseason arrest on felony domestic violence charges. Bridges' future with the franchise hasn't been discussed since, and Charlotte has no obvious internal candidates to replace his offensive production on the wing.

LaMelo Ball is a star, but he's the only one on Charlotte's payroll. Terry Rozier seemingly plateaued a tier or two beneath that level, and Gordon Hayward, whose name has floated around the trade rumor mill, can't stay healthy long enough to make a serious push for his second All-Star selection.

The center spot remains a question mark at best. Even the most bullish backers of incoming rookie Mark Williams would have trouble projecting stardom in his future, and Charlotte can't task the 20-year-old with fixing its 22nd-ranked defense. The supporting cast looks better in other spots, but none are standout strengths and probably won't be unless 2021's No. 11 pick, James Bouknight, levels up in a hurry after a near-silent rookie season.

Cleveland Cavaliers: Buy

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The Cavaliers could have kept things quiet this offseason, ran back the same group and felt fairly confident in their playoff chances. They went 44-38 last season despite playing nearly the entire campaign without Collin Sexton and losing All-Star center Jarrett Allen for the stretch run.

Cleveland, though, sensed an opportunity to aim higher. Rather than solely banking on the continued development of Allen, Darius Garland and Evan Mobley, the Cavaliers boldly supplemented that core by making a blockbuster trade for three-time All-Star Donovan Mitchell.

"The acquisition of Donovan Mitchell presented us with an incredible opportunity to bring one of the NBA's most dynamic young All-Stars to Cleveland," Cavaliers president of basketball operations Koby Altman told reporters. "... We are excited to see the impact that someone of Donovan's caliber can bring to the Cavaliers with his ability to score the basketball, but also make plays for his teammates."

There are some basketball logistics for head coach J.B. Bickerstaff to figure out—like balancing touches between Mitchell and Garland and fielding a competent defense with such an offense-heavy backcourt—but it's hard not to like the talent. If the Mobley-Allen tandem can sustain the gains of Cleveland's fifth-ranked defense while Mitchell energizes its 20th-ranked attack, the Cavaliers just might compete for one of the East's top four seeds.

Los Angeles Clippers: Buy

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If the basketball gods grant the Clippers a clean bill of health, then L.A. is likelier to win the title than it is to miss the playoffs. And frankly, that might be my most frigid take of the offseason.

The last time L.A. was healthy (2020-21), the team had a .653 winning percentage and the Association's second-best net rating. It made a run to the Western Conference Finals despite the fact it lost Kawhi Leonard to an ACL injury in the conference semis. And that team wasn't as loaded on paper as this one.

Assuming Leonard is good to go—"he feels great," according to Lawrence Frank, Clippers president of basketball operations, per NBA.com's Mark Medina—this roster has juggernaut potential. A healthy Leonard factors prominently into the best-player-on-the-planet debate, Paul George thrives as an all-purpose co-star and the supporting cast is stacked from top to bottom.

Reggie Jackson scores in bunches, Luke Kennard is a net-shredder, Ivica Zubac is reliable from close range and all four of Norman Powell, Robert Covington, Terance Mann and Marcus Morris Sr. are two-way assets on the wings. If John Wall has something left in the tank after missing two of the last three seasons, he'll only add to what's already an embarrassment of riches.

Los Angeles Lakers: Buy

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This is tough.

On the one hand, there aren't many reasons to believe in the Lakers. They lost 49 games last season, added zero difference-makers this summer and still haven't solved the Russell Westbrook dilemma. They landed in the bottom third of efficiency rankings on offense and defense, and they don't have an obvious fix for either end of the floor.

On the other hand, the uber-talented twosome of LeBron James and Anthony Davis feels capable of anything if they could ever stay healthy. The last time either played 60 games (they both cleared the mark in 2019-20), they led the Lakers to a world title. Sure, their injury issues are worrisome, but godspeed to the rest of the league if they stay upright.

If L.A. has a pair of superstars leading the charge, then the rest of this roster gets cast in a different light. Patrick Beverley's relentless defense and spot-up sharpshooting make him perfectly equipped to support stars. Thomas Bryant and Damian Jones can tag-team the minutes at center Davis doesn't take. The Lakers are younger and more athletic on the wings. Dennis Schroder addresses a need for extra shot-creation.

Now, the gap between L.A.'s floor and ceiling is arguably the league's widest, but the super-high-end outcomes that exist are the reason you can't dismiss the Lakers outright as playoff participants. And if they just get an invitation to the big dance, anything can happen if James and Davis are healthy for the postseason run.

New York Knicks: Sell

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This is not an easy call to make.

Jalen Brunson could be a home run addition for the Knicks. RJ Barrett has at least an outside shot at making an All-Star leap. Honestly, no one should discount Julius Randle's chances of getting his All-Star groove back, either. Sure, last season had a lot of rough moments, but he still finished as one of only four players to average 20 points, nine rebounds and five assists.

This young core is still improving and offers a wealth of potential. The center rotation should be even more dynamic with Isaiah Hartenstein now backing up Mitchell Robinson. A lot of things could go right for this team, and if enough of them do, then New York will be booking its second playoff trip in three years.

I just don't see it happening, since there are at least as many ways for things to go wrong, which could be a fatal flaw given the depth of the Eastern Conference.

While the Knicks have several All-Star candidates, the likeliest outcome is that they simply aren't represented at the world's greatest pickup game. The offense might require a bigger lift than Brunson can provide. There may not be enough developmental minutes to go around that position the prospects for success.

More than anything, though, this has less to do with doubting the Knicks than it does believing there are at least eight better teams in the East.

Portland Trail Blazers: Sell

AP Photo/John McCoy

Betting against Damian Lillard never seems like the smartest strategy, but the depth of the Western Conference might be more than even he can overcome.

While Portland worked to improve the roster this summer, it'll take more than Jerami Grant, Gary Payton II and Shaedon Sharpe to right the ship.

Grant might have been a focal point for the lowly Pistons, but when he played on good teams, he wasn't more than a third or fourth option. Payton is a brilliant defender, but he might struggle to find his offensive niche outside of the Golden State Warriors' system. Sharpe has gobs of long-term potential, but he didn't suit up last season and logged just five minutes at summer league.

Looking in-house, Anfernee Simons has a stiff challenge in trying to replace CJ McCollum, and even if Simons passes that test, he needs to also become a better defender than his predecessor. Jusuf Nurkic probably needs to level up, or at least solve his problems with injuries and inconsistency. Nassir Little has to uncover his offensive niche.

To be clear, there are scenarios in which the Blazers catch enough breaks and secure their playoff spot. It's just that given the questions with this club and the competition in the conference, there are even more scenarios in which Portland misses out on the fun.

Sacramento Kings: Sell

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I'd love to call for an end to Sacramento's historic dry spell, but I'd need better basketball reasons to go out on that limb than the Kings have provided.

The fit between De'Aaron Fox and Domantas Sabonis is funky. The former is a blink-and-you'll-miss-him burner, and the latter is a plodder who operates best from the high post. Neither is a long-range shooting threat. Their passing and pick-and-roll play can complement one another, but it's not ideal. They arguably exceeded expectations over 13 games together last season and still went just 5-8 with a minus-1.9 net rating.

The roster, at least, looks better around them now. The draft delivered No. 4 pick Keegan Murray, whose jack-of-all-trades game should make for a smooth transition. Free agency brought Malik Monk to town, while the trade market yielded Kevin Huerter. Those additions will help, as will the continued steady presence of Harrison Barnes.

Still, if you find yourself wondering what of the above will make Sacramento emerge as one of the West's top eight teams, you are not alone. This team landed 24th on offense and 27th on defense last season. It's hard enough picturing dramatic improvement in either area, let alone the type of two-way mastery that will be required to snag a postseason spot.

Washington Wizards: Sell

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I can think of reasons Bradley Beal wanted to stay with the Wizards this summer—251 million of them, in fact. Too bad they aren't basketball reasons.

What's the biggest, non-Beal source for optimism in Washington right now? That Kristaps Porzingis suddenly uncovers the key to staying healthy after failing to play 60 games in a season since 2016-17? That the light bulb finally clicks and powers Kyle Kuzma toward stardom? That the solidly unspectacular Monte Morris morphs into a high-level floor general? That a prospect group that featured a single double-digit scorer last season (Rui Hachimura, 11.3 points per game) makes a monstrous leap forward?

Surely, it's some amalgamation of all that and more, and progress will be made on some of these fronts. But the Wizards aren't simply tasked with improving from last season's 35-47 finish. They have to make such a big leap that they can keep their head above water in a deep Eastern Conference.

There isn't an obvious choice among last season's playoff participants to fall out of the equation this time around, and the Wizards would almost certainly need two teams to drop, since only a catastrophic event seems capable of sinking the Cavaliers. So, while I'm not particularly bullish on the Wizards to begin with, I'd be even more worried about the top half of the conference simply sprinting away from them.

Statistics used courtesy of Basketball Reference and NBA.com.

Zach Buckley covers the NBA for Bleacher Report. Follow him on Twitter, @ZachBuckleyNBA.

   

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