Over 100 U.S. cities, including Albany, experienced one of their top 10 hottest summers on record. In the Capital Region, summer 2022 tied with 1949 and 1901 for the third hottest on record with a mean temperature of 73.0 degrees F, looking at records dating back to 1874. 2005 to date is Albany's hottest summer on record with a mean temperature of 73.5 degrees F.
THE CLIMATE CHANGE CONNECTION - QUANTIFYING THE IMPACT OF GLOBAL WARMING ON SUMMER 2022
It's summer and that's when it gets hot. Nothing odd about that. But, national data is showing that summers are getting hotter on average over time. And for the first time, through a new tool called the Climate Shift Index (CSI,) released earlier this year from our partners at Climate Central, we can quantify the impact global warming is having on temperature. From Climate Central: "The Climate Shift Index (CSI) is a categorical scale, with the categories defined by the ratio of how common (or likely) a temperature is in today's altered climate vs. how common it would be in a climate without human-caused climate change."Click here to see the CSI scale and descriptors.
A CSI ranking of "2" means that modern day, or in other words, human induced climate change, made the occurrence of exceptionally warm temperatures two times more likely to have occurred than would have otherwise occurred in a stable non warming climate.
Climate Central's analysis of the summer through the CSI tool indicates that almost half (49%) of the contiguous United States experienced at least summer 15 days where a high average daily temperature was made at least two times more likely to have occurred due to climate change. Put in another way, approximately 132 million people across the lower 48 states (about 40% of the total population) experienced a strong influence from climate change for at least two weeks of the summer.
If you look at the map below you can see that much of Nevada, south Texas, and central and southern Florida had 50 or more summer days with average temperatures (the high temperature added to the low temperature then dived by 2) that were made at least twice as likely due to climate change. Locally in the Hudson valley, up to 15 days this summer were strongly influenced, or in other words, made hotter, by climate change with Rhode Island, southeast Massachusetts and coastal Maine experiencing anywhere from 15-30 days with a strong climate change influence.
CLIMATE CHANGE FINGERPRINTS ON SUMMER NIGHTTIME MINIMUM and DAYTIME MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES
According to NOAA, since U.S. records began in 1895, summer minimum temperatures have been climbing at an average rate of 1.6 degrees F per century which is close to twice as fast as the warming rate for summer daytime maximum temperatures which are rising at the rate of approximately 0.9 degrees F per century.
Summer 2022 minimum temperatures were the second highest on record since 1895 across the lower 48 states with 66% of the U.S. by area affected by unusually warm summer nights.
The Climate Shift Index summer analysis showed that 64% of the contiguous U.S., which amounts to 72% of the population, experienced 15 or more summer nights with higher minimum temperatures that were made at least twice as likely to occur now versus in the past due to human induced climate change.
Most of Nevada, southern California, western Arizona, southern and eastern Texas, most of Louisiana and Florida, experienced at least 50 summer nights with higher minimum temperatures that were made at least twice as likely due to climate change with much of southern and central Florida and parts of south Texas getting 70 or more summer nighttime temperatures being made at least twice as likely due to climate change. Locally in the Capital Region - Hudson valley, anywhere from 15 to 30 nights, dependent on specific locations, experienced nights with higher temperatures made at least two times more likely today due to climate change than would have occurred in the past.
DAYTIME MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES
The impact of modern day climate change was particularly evident on daytime maximum temperatures across the western U.S., parts of the Southeast and locally from the Hudson valley east into New England. Overall, 27% of the lower 48 experienced higher daytime maximum temperatures that were made at least two times more likely to have occurred today due to human induced climate change than would have occurred in the past. Locally in the Capital Region - Hudson valley anywhere from 5-15 days, depending on location, experienced higher temperatures that were made two times more likely to have occurred due to climate change.
For a detailed look at human induced climate change and the scientific data and reasons behind how we know it's us, click here.
Climate Central's Methodology for calculating the summer 2022 CSI values for the daily average, minimum, and maximum temperatures
"To calculate average CSI data, the non-rounded version of CSI (called the Climate Factor, or CF) associated with minimum and maximum daily temperatures was collected using Climate Central’s Climate Shift Index methodology from June 1 to August 31, 2022. The daily minimum and maximum temperature CF were then averaged, then converted to CSI, and aggregated to Designated Market Areas (DMAs). The number of days with an average CSI greater than or equal to 2 for each DMA was then calculated."
"Annual average summer (June–August) temperatures were obtained for each year of a station’s period of record using data from the Applied Climate Information System and were subsequently ranked. The period of record varies by station. Local graphics were not produced for eight stations due to missing daily data that could potentially impact this year's ranking, including: Albany, Ga.; Idaho Falls and Twin Falls, Idaho; Presque Isle, Maine; Greenville, Miss.; Glendive, Mont.; Manchester, N.H.; and Bend, Ore."