Remember that long week after Labor Day in 2017 when Hurricane Irma’s forecast path had the powerful storm heading across the Atlantic Ocean to South Florida and then up the peninsula?
As we monitored Irma’s progress, gas prices shot up and motorists waited in hourlong lines outside nearly every gas station in the state. Some motorists even followed tankers to stations, prompting state troopers to accompany tankers to make sure they arrived safely.
That’s not happening in the state ahead of Ian right now.
The average price for unleaded regular in Florida actually declined by 3 cents over the past week to $3.38 on Monday, according to travel club AAA. The decline comes amid a stable period for oil and gas production in the Southeast. Other regions of the U.S. are experiencing refinery issues, which sent the average per-gallon price up to $3.73, about 5 cents higher than a week earlier.
The only Florida price shift that could be pegged on Ian was a four-tenths of a cent increase between Sunday and Monday. While the price could rise a bit more this week, analysts aren’t expecting any major surge ahead of Ian’s expected turn into Florida.
Several factors account for the difference between the pre-Irma run-up in 2017 and now:
First, Hurricane Irma set its sights on Florida a little more than a week after Hurricane Harvey made landfall in Texas and Louisiana as a devastating Category 4 storm, causing widespread flooding and knocking out oil and gas refineries along those states’ coastlines.
Gas prices shot up 34 cents as a result, then climbed another 5 cents due to rising demand from Florida residents in Irma’s path.
Second, Ian is predicted to turn east toward Florida and away from those same refineries, making it unlikely to cause any serious disruption in oil and gas refining.
Third, the Federal Reserve Board’s three-quarter point interest rate hike last week sent stock prices and oil future prices tumbling on fears of a looming economic slowdown. The price of U.S. crude oil closed below $80 a barrel last Friday for the first time since January.
In a rough day for the financial markets on Monday, U.S. crude oil was trading just above $77, nearly $2 under Friday’s close.
Plus, while the Tampa Bay and Orlando areas remain in Ian’s forecast path, the South Florida metro area appears unlikely to experience a direct hit. That reduces demand for gasoline statewide as residents here are less fearful of power outages.
Then there’s the fact that the price spikes triggered by hurricanes Irma and Harvey would seem like a bargain today. The average price peaked at $2.73 on Sept. 14, four days after Irma made landfall in the Florida Keys.
Stable prices don’t mean that some gas stations won’t run out of fuel, however, due to people escaping the storm’s path or filling up gas cans to power generators, said Mark Jenkins, AAA’s Florida spokesman.
Jenkins said it’s important for drivers to understand that the outages will be temporary.
“Gas stations are not connected to an underground pipeline,” Jenkins wrote in AAA’s weekly Gas Price Update on Monday. “Just like your vehicle, each gas station can only hold so much fuel at a given time. That fuel is stored in tanks underground. Once those tanks are empty, retailers bag the pumps and wait for the next delivery truck. Sometimes that can be the same day, sometimes longer. It can vary.”
Tanker trucks will continue making deliveries as long as it’s safe to do so, and will resume once the storm passes, he said. “The bottom line is, don’t panic about gasoline supplies, just take what you need,” Jenkins said.
Average prices in South Florida on Monday remained above the state average, as usual because of the higher price of doing business in the region. Averages were $3.42 in Broward County, $3.58 in Palm Beach County and $3.45 in Miami-Dade County.
Meanwhile, prices well below the state average can easily be found in the tricounty region by consulting the price-comparison website and app Gas Buddy.
Gas Buddy showed that two gas stations on State Road 7 in Lauderdale Lakes — a BP station and a Shell station — were selling at $3.09 a gallon. Both are located between Sunrise and Oakland Park boulevards.
In Palm Beach County, the Rocket Fuel station at 100 N. Federal Highway in North Palm Beach offered that county’s lowest price — $3.13 — that does not require a wholesale club membership.
And the lowest non-wholesale club price in Miami-Dade was $3.21, also at Rocket Fuel, at 5695 W. Flagler St. in West Miami.
You would be advised to consult Gas Buddy before heading to any of those stations because prices are subject to change at any moment.
Ron Hurtibise covers business and consumer issues for the South Florida Sun Sentinel. He can be reached by phone at 954-356-4071, on Twitter @ronhurtibise or by email at rhurtibise@sunsentinel.com.
