Phillies To Face Daunting Challenge With Final Three Series on the Road

The Philadelphia Phillies will play their final three series of 2022 on the road, while both the Brewers and the Padres will finish off the year at home.

Author:
Leo Morgenstern
Sep 26, 2022 12:00 PM EDT

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Philadelphia Phillies

With ten games left to play in the regular season, the Philadelphia Phillies hold a 1.5-game lead over the Milwaukee Brewers for the final National League Wild Card spot. They are another 1.5 games behind the San Diego Padres in the Wild Card standings.

The Phillies also hold the tiebreaker over both the Brewers and the Padres, meaning they would automatically earn a postseason berth if they finished tied with either team.

As such, Philadelphia's odds of making the playoffs are quite high. FanGraphs has them at 86.5%. Baseball Reference has them at 82.4%. PECOTA has them at 71.4%. The Phillies are in a good position, and all they have to do is hold on.

With seven games left against weaker opponents (Chicago Cubs, Washington Nationals) and only three left against a winning ballclub (Houston Astros), holding on should be more than doable, except for one small wrinkle.

The Phillies will finish out the season on the road. Ten straight contests away from the friendly confines of Citizens Bank Park will decide their fate. The Brewers and Padres, meanwhile, have all their remaining games at home.

Philadelphia, like most teams, is much better at home than on the road. They have gone 36-35 (.507) in away games this season, while they are 47-34 (.580) at home.

Milwaukee and San Diego, as one would expect, have quite good records at home. The Brewers have gone 42-30 (.600), while the Padres have gone 40-32 (.555).

The remaining schedule, therefore, puts the Phillies at a disadvantage. The current standings and the new tiebreaker rule might make it seem like they are in a comfortable position, but the final ten games of the season will pose quite the daunting challenge.

In order to control their own destiny, the Phillies need to win eight of their remaining ten games. That would be hard enough at home, and on the road it's an extremely unlikely outcome.

If Philadelphia can go 6-4 it would almost certainly be enough to get them to the postseason. In such a scenario, the Brewers would need to win eight of their final nine games to usurp the Phillies. But 6-4 won't be easy, especially on the road, and especially for a team that has gone 3-7 in their last ten games.

Here are a handful of ways Philadelphia could pull off a 6-4 record over their final three series:

Two of three from the Cubs, three of four from the Nationals, one of three from the Astros
Sweep the Cubs, three of four from the Nationals, swept by the Astros
Two of three from the Cubs, sweep the Nationals, swept by the Astros
Two of three from the Cubs, two of four from the Nationals, two of three from the Astros

No matter what, the Phillies need to stay on their toes. Unless they sweep one of the Cubs or the Nationals, they will need to win at least one game against the powerhouse Astros. It's not an impossibility, but it will be a difficult task.

Philadelphia would probably make the playoffs if they went 5-5, but in that scenario they would need to count on Milwaukee losing at least three more games. That's a dangerous gamble, so the Phillies would be better served by winning as many games as possible themselves. That means staying vigilant 'til the very end.

In all likelihood, this baseball team will make the playoffs. Their postseason odds are high for a reason. But with a ten-game road trip at the very end of the year, it's not going to be a cakewalk for them to get there.

The Philadelphia Phillies will face a daunting challenge to end the season. It will make for some nail-biting contests. Yet if they are a true playoff team, they will emerge from this challenge stronger than they were before.