Kerr: 7th District race is a new ballgame

How did over 200,000 residents of Prince William County, and several hundred thousand more in Stafford County and points farther south and west, end up in Virginia’s 7th Congressional District?

It’s also fair to ask, “How many of these voters even know that they’re in a new district?” And, if they do, how many know who is running to represent them in this fall’s election? The answer is probably very few.

So, how did this new district come to be? Thanks to the failure of Virginia’s redistricting commission, the task of drawing new congressional districts after the 2020 Census fell to the Virginia Supreme Court. The justices drew new districts that better reflect the state’s population distribution. That’s how the “new” 7th District came to be.

In its earlier incarnation, the 7th included some of the most conservative counties in the state and was decidedly Republican. Nonetheless, in 2018, in a big surprise, it flipped. Democrat Abigail Spanberger, in her first bid for elective office, ousted former Congressman Dave Brat, and she retained the seat in 2020. Today, however, she represents very little of the original district that made up her seat during the past four years. For her, it’s a new ballgame.

However, she’s not unknown, she made news outside her district and she is well-funded. Spanberger faced no Democratic primary opponents. However, at 802,000 people across 16 localities, the 7th is still a big district and she is a new name for many. Also she has a vigorous Republican opponent in Yesli Vega.

Spanberger is what people in Washington call a “policy wonk.” In case you were wondering, that’s a compliment. She’s the sort who wants to know the “ins and outs” of legislation, how it works, where the money comes from and what the rules are. Most politicians prefer generalities. This may harken back to her first career as a CIA field agent. That job by necessity requires having an unusually good memory and a knack for detail. In Spanberger’s case, it shows.

Vega, the GOP nominee and a Prince William supervisor, is a former police officer and sheriff’s deputy. She’s no slouch and has a lot of passion – most of it distinctly right wing. And the question, certainly the one Spanberger asks, “Is she too far to the right for the character of the district?”

That’s tough. There are areas in the 7th where Vega’s views have a following, but for most of the district, she is arguably a little “out there.”

One unguarded comment that hurt Vega’s campaign was a remark that, based on her experience as a police officer, a woman who is raped is less likely to become pregnant. This made a lot of jaws drop. This was in a discussion regarding an exemption to abortion legislation that might allow abortions in cases of rape.

Also, Spanberger has been touting her “moderate” credentials. She has been ranked the fifth most “bi-partisan” member of the Democratic caucus in Congress. She likes to talk about how during her tenure she has worked with Republican members to find areas of common ground. She has been especially collaborative on veterans initiatives, a special interest for her.

Variables in this race make projecting the outcome dicey. Spanberger has the money to spread her message, but she is still a new figure for most of the district. Also, it’s an off-year election and the party in the White House usually has a tough time of it.

But even that calculus isn’t a given this year. Gas prices are down since spring; the economy, at least in terms of consumer confidence, is a bit better; the Democrats passed some landmark legislation, and the Supreme Court’s abortion decision may motivate Democratic voters. Spanberger may have the edge, but the race is far too fluid to make hard and fast predictions just now.

David Kerr is an adjunct professor of political science at Virginia Commonwealth University and has worked on Capitol Hill and for various federal agencies for many years.