Tropical Storm Ian is expected to continue gaining strength and morph into a hurricane in the coming days.
Ian, as of Sunday morning, has 50 mph winds and a decreasing pressure of 1001 mb, and is showing signs of some banding features forming. Banding features are a key ingredient to intensification, so seeing the start of these features suggests that intensification is likely to continue throughout Sunday.
Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis expanded the state of emergency to all 67 counties in the state of Florida.
There is a high confidence that Ian will impact the Cayman Islands Sunday and throughout the day Monday before moving over western Cuba by early Tuesday morning. The confidence in the track beyond Cuba remains a low-confidence forecast.
How strong will Ian be?
With deep and warm ocean waters, coupled with low wind shear and a very moist environment, Ian really will face no specific impacts that could weaken the system or slow its intensification rate. Once Ian reaches the western Caribbean sea, a period of rapid intensification is likely.
While track guidance has historically had a good track record of verifying, it's worth noting the intensity forecasts remain very difficult in verification. That said, the National Hurricane Center is forecasting Ian to be a strong category 4 storm, but the ceiling of strength could be even higher. Those in Florida, especially on the west coast, should prepare for a major hurricane – potentially of category 4 or low end category 5 strength.
Where exactly will it hit the US?
There are three scenarios on the table for the potential track. The most likely scenario is a track towards the Florida Big Bend. This scenario has a 50% chance of occurring and those odds continue to increase.
The more middle-of-the-road track has decreased, now down to a 40% chance of occurring. A track like this remains on the table mainly due to the European model and its ensemble members who continue to signal a landfall in the Tampa Bay area. This option would also increase wind shear in the atmosphere, making a tornado threat a low-end possibility for the entire area.
The final possibility is the worst case scenario. This track – currently at a 10% chance of occurring and decreasing – would bring significant, major hurricane impacts to South Florida. A track of this nature would bring torrential tropical rainfall in excess of a foot, sustained winds of hurricane force with major hurricane force gusts over 115 mph, a higher end tornado threat and even some storm surge to inlets across South Florida.
What should residents do to prepare?
Don't panic. Use Sunday and Monday to continue to get a hurricane kit replenished and review your hurricane plan. Tropical storm impacts may be felt for some, mainly in the northern Treasure Coast. Prepare for a moderate tropical storm at best.
WPEC has a helpful hurricane guide that can help you out during your planning. You can access that guide by clicking here.