Tropical Storm Ian: What does Alabama need to know?

Hurricane Ian strengthened on Monday as it headed toward Cuba. Ian should make it into the Gulf by Tuesday and then could run up the west coast of Florida through the week, bringing prolonged wind, storm surge and flooding rain to parts of the peninsula. Coastal Alabama wasn't in the cone as of Monday morning but parts of eastern Alabama are at the end of the forecast period after Ian moves inland.
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Tropical Storm Ian got stronger on Sunday night as it headed in the direction of Cuba -- and eventually the Gulf of Mexico.

Ian’s winds increased from 45 mph to 65 mph late Sunday, according to the National Hurricane Center.

Ian is expected to become a hurricane on Monday as it nears western Cuba. Then it could cross over Cuba and make it into the Gulf by Tuesday.

There it could get even stronger as it heads northward, paralleling the west coast of Florida, possibly making landfall there as a weaker storm but still a hurricane on Thursday or Friday.

As of 10 p.m. CDT Sunday, the center of Tropical Storm Ian was located about 140 miles south of Grand Cayman, or 390 miles southeast of the western tip of Cuba, and was tracking to the northwest at 13 mph.

Ian’s winds increased again to 65 mph, up from 45 mph earlier Sunday. Hurricane-force winds begin at 74 mph.

Tropical Storm Ian strengthened into a Category 1 hurricane Monday morning and could rapidly intensify into a major Category 3 or Category 4 storm in the next two days before hitting Florida later this week, forecasters say.
Ian became 2022's fourth Atlantic hurricane on Monday and had 80 mph winds as it approached Cuba. Rapid strengthening is expected today, and Ian could become a major hurricane by tonight as it nears Cuba. The latest track by the hurricane center shows the center of Ian making landfall in western Florida late this week.

Hurricane center forecasters stressed that there was still a “significant” amount of uncertainty about Ian’s track -- especially as it nears landfall.

The hurricane center’s forecast track shifted to the east several times on Sunday but still has a wide range of possible landfall points for Ian.

The long-range forecast cone, which shows where the center of the storm could go, stretched from the Florida Panhandle to the Atlantic Ocean on Sunday. Forecasters said that effects from the storm -- damaging winds, storm surge and flooding rain -- could be a factor for areas that aren’t even in the cone.

Alabama’s coastal areas were removed from the cone on Sunday, that that wasn’t the case for part of east Alabama, which could face effects from the storm once it makes landfall.

The National Weather Service offices that cover Alabama were watching Ian carefully on Sunday.

The weather service in Mobile urged those along the Alabama coast to not let their guard down and continue to keep up to date on the forecast for Ian the next few days.

Regardless of where Ian makes landfall, there will be a high risk of rip currents for Alabama and northwest Florida beaches starting on Tuesday night and lasting through at least Thursday.

The weather service highlighted the uncertainty about Ian in the forecast discussion on Sunday, saying “The uncertainty is such that the forecast area could end up dry and fairly quiet through much of the period or see much higher rain chances along with wind impacts. Either way, we continue to expect a high risk of rip currents along with heavy surf conditions through much of the period. Hopefully, uncertainty in the track forecast will improve over the next 12 to 24 hours.”

If Ian follows the current forecast track it could be very windy along the Alabama coast as well -- both before and after the storm arrives.

The weather service in Birmingham was also keeping tabs on Ian and said with all the uncertainty in the forecast it’s too soon to be specific about Ian’s possible effects on central Alabama’s weather.

Rain chances will be on the rise from Thursday into Friday as Ian nears the region -- based on the current forecast track.

“There`s quite a bit of uncertainty in the track this far out, so any specific weather impact to our forecast area in Central Alabama also remains uncertain,” the weather service said Sunday morning.

The weather service in Huntsville was also watching Ian closely on Sunday. Forecasters said that based on the current track showers could begin to affect north Alabama on Friday if the center of the storm tracks into Georgia.

The weather service said the biggest concern right now for north Alabama would be heavy rain and gusty winds, but widespread flooding isn’t anticipated because it’s been so dry lately.

Forecasters urged all Alabamians to keep watching the forecast because it can change drastically based on the track of the storm.

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