All signs point to Tropical Storm Ian reaching Florida as a hurricane by the middle of next week. The question of the weekend is where.
The most recent forecasts suggest Southeast Florida may dodge the initial impact, unlike the rest of the state, as the storm’s potential path shifts north and west.
In its 11 p.m. update Saturday, the National Hurricane Center said Ian is expected to rapidly intensify and become a hurricane on Sunday. At the 2 a.m. Sunday advisory, the system was moving west at 13 mph with maximum sustained winds remaining at 50 mph. At 2 a.m., it was 370 miles southeast of Grand Cayman and 660 miles southeast of the western tip of Cuba.
A hurricane warning is in effect for Grand Cayman, a hurricane watch is in effect for the western Cuban provinces of Isla de Juventud, Pinar del Rio and Artemisa, and a tropical storm watch is in effect for Little Cayman and Cayman Brac and the Cuban provinces of La Habana, Mayabeque and Matanzas.
Also late Saturday night, parts of coastal Alabama joined much of the western coast of Florida within the five-day forecast cone of uncertainty.
The advisory said: “A turn toward the west-northwest and northwest at a similar forward speed is expected on Sunday, followed by a turn toward the north-northwest on Monday and north on Tuesday. On the forecast track, the center of Ian is forecast to pass well southwest of Jamaica on Sunday, and pass near or west of the Cayman Islands early Monday. Ian will then move near or over western Cuba Monday night and early Tuesday and emerge over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico on Tuesday.”
If Ian does make landfall on Cuba, it is expected to do so as a major hurricane (sustained winds of at least 111 mph).
The track forecast has continued to move west since the last update. However, much uncertainty remains.
“There is significant spread noted even among the GFS ensemble members, with positions that range from the north-central Gulf of Mexico to the west coast of Florida,” the National Hurricane Center said in its 5 p.m. advisory Saturday.
Ian will likely drop heavy rainfall, flash flooding, and possible mudslides in Aruba, Bonaire and Curacao, with heavy rains in Jamaican and the Cayman Islands in the next few days.
That doesn’t mean South Floridians should rejoice, however. The cone could still shift back east, and even if it doesn’t, the cone shows only where the center of the hurricane will likely be, not the havoc it may wreak.
“I know a lot of South Floridians, they kind of look at the graphic and take that as the holy grail,” said Shawn Bhatti, a meteorologist for National Weather Service Miami, on Saturday afternoon. “But it’s important to remember there’s volatility with that and impacts extend far outside what the cone is able to show.”
Those impacts include extreme flooding, tropical storm-force winds, and tornadoes.
The cone of uncertainty forecasts where the center of a hurricane will be two-thirds of the time, Bhatti said. But subtle shifts in the track can make a huge difference, and the warm waters of the Gulf and possible land interaction with Cuba could create those shifts.
“This weekend, have all preparations in place for a potential worst-case scenario,” said Bhatti.
The “reasonable” worst-case scenario right now still includes all the impacts associated with a major hurricane. But if the storm keeps shifting west, South Florida could see only high waves and gusty winds.
As the weekend progresses, the hurricane’s path will become increasingly clear. By Sunday night into Monday morning, forecasters say they’ll have a much better idea of what’s to come and whether South Florida might be spared the brunt of the storm.
Gov. Ron DeSantis on Saturday amended the state of emergency to encompass all of Florida. Previously, the state of emergency had been issued only for 24 counties, including Broward, Miami-Dade, and Palm Beach. The Florida National Guard will be activated and on standby to respond as needed, the emergency order says.
Warm waters in the Caribbean and the Gulf will strengthen the storm into a hurricane as early as Sunday, with “rapid intensification” possible, the National Weather Service said Saturday. South Florida could start to see heavy rainfall on Monday, presenting a risk of limited flash and urban flooding, according to the latest advisory.
Meanwhile, tropical storm-force winds may begin in South Florida as early as Monday night, but are most likely to start Tuesday evening.
Robert Garcia, a meteorologist with National Weather Service Miami, encouraged South Floridians to prepare over the weekend.
“It’s time to start getting those hurricane plans out, making sure everyone has all the things they need in their kits, water, know where your insurance papers are,” Garcia said. “Stay attentive to what’s going on with the forecast. Things are probably going to progress through the weekend and into early next week where that attention will necessary.”
Florida’s Division of Emergency Management issued a news release Friday announcing that the state is preparing for potential landfall and urging Floridians to prepare their homes for the storm.
“It is critical that Floridians remain vigilant and prepared — it only takes one storm to cause costly or irreversible damage to your home or business,” FDEM director Kevin Guthrie said in the release.
The National Hurricane Center is also tracking other Atlantic storms.
Tropical Storm Hermine weakened to a tropical depression Saturday evening. Hermine is moving north at 10 mph with maximum sustained winds of 35 mph with higher gusts. It is expected to continue this path for the next day or two, then turn northwest.
Hermine is expected to weaken and dissipate in a day or so.
Meanwhile, Fiona weakened to a post-tropical cyclone with 70 mph winds as of Saturday’s 5 p.m. advisory. Canada removed all of its hurricane and tropical storm warnings Saturday. The National Hurricane Center will no longer be posting advisories about the storm.
Fiona is 80 miles northwest of Port Aux Basques, Newfoundland, moving northeast at 8 mph, according to the National Hurricane Center advisory.
A slower northward motion is expected over the next few days. The center of Fiona will move across Labrador and over the Labrador Sea on Sunday.
Gradual weakening is forecast during the next couple of days. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 550 miles from the center.
Fiona was the first major hurricane of the 2022 season, meaning Category 3 and above.
Forecasters are also monitoring a broad area of low pressure in the Atlantic that has a 30% chance of developing in the next five days, though Ian is the biggest concern.
“The one to watch is definitely the system moving into the southeastern Caribbean,” said Eric Blake, a forecaster for the National Hurricane Center.
Tropical Storm Gaston is continuing to weaken and is expected to become a post-tropical cyclone by Sunday morning.
Hurricane season ends Nov. 30. The next named storm after Ian would be Julia.
