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Tropical Storm Ian got stronger and had 50 mph winds on Saturday night as it tracked westward in the central Caribbean.
The National Hurricane Center expects Ian to strengthen more -- a lot more -- and it could become a hurricane as soon as Sunday night. It is forecast to move into the southeastern Gulf of Mexico on Tuesday and make a beeline for Florida, where it could weaken some before making landfall.
But exactly where in Florida was a big question on Saturday.
Some of Alabama’s coastal areas were added to the five-day forecast cone on Saturday night, and cone includes all of the Florida Panhandle. The cone also now includes a piece of southeast Alabama.
The cone shows where just the center of the storm could go. It’s important to note that wind and rain from the storm could affect areas well outside of the cone.
“Ian is expected to remain a major hurricane when it moves generally northward across the eastern Gulf of Mexico during the middle of next week, but uncertainty in the track forecast is higher than usual,” the hurricane center said Saturday.
“Regardless of Ian’s exact track, there is a risk of dangerous storm surge, hurricane-force winds, and heavy rainfall along the west coast of Florida and the Florida Panhandle by the middle of next week, and residents in Florida should ensure they have their hurricane plan in place, follow any advice given by local officials, and closely monitor updates to the forecast.”
First in Ian’s path will be the Cayman Islands, and a hurricane warning has been issued Grand Cayman (a tropical storm watch is in effect for Little Cayman and Cayman Brac). Next will be Cuba, and a hurricane watch was issued for part of the island late Saturday.
And then Florida will face what Ian has to offer. It could be a major hurricane by that point and could peak with 130 mph winds -- Category 4 intensity. Some weakening could come before landfall. The hurricane center’s official forecast track shows the center of the storm moving onshore on Thursday.
But the cone of uncertainty, or area where the center of the storm could come onshore, stretched from Alabama to the Atlantic Ocean on Saturday, and more track shifts will be likely in the coming days.
The hurricane center noted that track forecast is still “highly uncertain” at days 4 and 5, with two of the main computer models offering up tracks that about 200 nautical miles apart.
“Hopefully, data collected from special radiosonde releases and a NOAA G-IV flight this evening will help better resolve the steering flow around Ian and the deep-layer trough that is forecast to be over the eastern U.S. early next week,” the hurricane center said. “The latest NHC track forecast is once again adjusted westward, and further adjustments may be needed given the increased uncertainty in the day 3-5 period.”
Forecasters urged those across Florida to keep an eye on the storm and make sure they are prepared.
As of 10 p.m. CDT Saturday, the center of Tropical Storm Ian was located about 395 miles southeast of Grand Cayman Island, or 685 miles southeast of the western tip of Cuba, and was moving west at 13 mph.
Ian had 50 mph winds, up from 45 mph earlier Saturday. The hurricane center said strengthening is likely and Ian could become a hurricane by Sunday night. Hurricane-force winds begin at 74 mph.
On the hurricane center’s forecast track the center of Ian is expected to pass well to the southwest of Jamaica on Sunday, near or over the Cayman Islands Sunday night and early Monday and approach western Cuba on Monday.
Hurricane conditions will be possible on Grand Cayman starting early Monday, with tropical storm conditions possible by Sunday night, forecasters said.
The National Weather Service in Mobile continued to keep a close eye on Ian and said there will likely be an increased risk for rip currents and rough seas along the Alabama and northwest Florida beaches next week.
Beyond that, forecasters said it was too soon to determine any other effects that Ian may bring to the area.
“Stay tuned as there is uncertainty with the forecast track for Ian which could result in changes to the forecast,” the weather service said on Saturday.
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