New winter forecast from NOAA says better have a snowblower, especially Ann Arbor, Detroit

NOAA issued a winter forecast yesterday. It has a very interesting precipitation pattern for this winter.

Right now, let’s just look at the pure winter months of December, January and February. Later on we can go back at look at the fringe months of November, March and April.

The new forecast, issued Aug.18, 2022, is pegged on the thought that La Niña is expected to continue through this winter before fading to near normal water temperatures next spring. La Niña is when a large area of the Pacific Ocean surface waters are cooler than long-term normals. In other words, it’s a big blob of cool water stretching along the equator across the Pacific Ocean. This blob of cold water influences the jetstream around the northern hemisphere, especially in winter.

The precipitation forecast is the more definitive part of Michigan’s winter forecast. NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center thinks there will be an area of above normal precipitation amounts running from Illinois, Indiana and Ohio northward into Lower Michigan. The highest odds of above normal precipitation are in the far southern part of Lower Michigan, in an area from Sturgis to Coldwater to Jackson to Ann Arbor to the Detroit area.

NOAA seems to be indicating they expect a storm track from southwest to northeast across the Ohio Valley. Storm systems that track in that direction often put southern Lower Michigan in the heaviest swath of snow on the north side of the storm track.

The rest of Lower Michigan has a slightly increased chance of heavier than normal precipitation, when compared to the past 30 years’ average precipitation.

We could have an active storm track, but will it be mostly snow or rain? The temperature forecast shows that NOAA isn’t finding a definitive favoring of either colder than normal or warmer than normal temperatures. While the forecast details would imply we have an equal chance of a cold, normal or warmer winter, this tends to mean a winter hovering close to near normal on temperatures.

Near normal temperatures in December, January and February mean mostly snow would fall out of winter storm systems, even in far southern Lower Michigan.

The forecast then says that Lower Michigan could have a snowier than average winter, with temperatures that would average near normal. Obviously we know that normal temperatures here in winter are cold. If the forecast verifies, temperatures just wouldn’t be extremely, abnormally cold.

The first step toward having what Michiganders call a “real winter” is to have lots of precipitation. The latest forecast leans toward preparing us for that real winter.

My snowblower was running a little clunky late last winter. I think I’ll take it in for a tune-up, and avoid the rush at the engine repair shop come December.