The NBA Championship Formula: Part I

Entering the 2022-23 NBA season, New Orleans Pelicans fans are expecting a major jump in the standings with the return of a healthy Zion Williamson and the maturation of a lineup that pushed the Phoenix Suns to six games in the opening round of the Western Conference playoffs.

How close are the Pels to being a legitimate championship contender?

To answer that, first there has to be an understanding of the components of a championship NBA team. After looking at the past decade of champions, some trends stand out.

You Better Play D.

Since the Miami Heat won their second title in 2013, only one team has won the title while finishing outside of the top 10 in defensive rating; the 2018 Golden State Warriors who finished 11th.

Of that group only four were outside of the top five; Miami in 2013, Cleveland in 2016, Golden State, and Milwaukee in 2021. The average defensive rank for a NBA champion over that span has been 5.6, with an average defensive rating of 104.9.

If you narrow the scope to the just the past five seasons, the average ranking climbs slightly to 6.0, with an average rating of 107.4.

Last season the Pelicans’ 112.0 DRTG placed them 18th in the league, and that’s including a post All-Star break stretch of 23 games where they ranked ninth in the NBA defensively.

Of the 17 teams that finished ahead of New Orleans, only the New York Knicks and Oklahoma City Thunder failed to make it to at least the play-in qualifying tournament.

In the history of the franchise, the Pelicans have posted a defensive rating lower than 110 in 13 different seasons. Seven of their eight playoff appearances came in those seasons, with last year being the lone exception.

Willie Green has made defense the priority in building his team. The drafting of Herb Jones, Trey Murphy, Dyson Daniels, and the addition of Jose Alvarado all fit his blueprint. However, major defensive questions surround much of the Pelicans’ core.

Zion Williamson is one of the most gifted offensive players in the NBA, but defensively he’s been inconsistent at best. Brandon Ingram, CJ McCollum, and Jonas Valanciunas are willing, but not elite defenders.

The Western Conference hasn’t gotten easier since last season. Not with the defending champion Warriors having Klay Thompson available from the outset of the year, the Mavericks continuing to build around Luka Doncic, two-time MVP Nikola Jokic getting Jamal Murray and Michael Porter Jr. back…not to mention the Suns, who even if they take a step back from their NBA-best performance will still be formidable, as well as the prospects of facing a Clippers squad with a healthy duo of Paul George and Kawhi Leonard. Minnesota bolstered its defense with the addition of Rudy Gobert, and the Grizzlies were a top five unit last season.

Scoring points has never been a problem for the Pelicans, but finding a solution to stopping them has been as elusive as finding a buyer for the old Lowe’s in New Orleans East.

If the Pels want to go from a feel-good story to a real-good team, they have to become elite defensively. Not consistent. Not good. Elite. 

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