NY Jets’ 2022 win total is set at 5.5: Is over or under the play?

Sportsbooks have the New York Jets’ win total set at 5.5 for the 2022 season

As of August 15, the sports betting world does not have very high expectations for the New York Jets in the 2022 season. Most outlets have the Jets’ win total set at 5.5.

Here are the league-wide NFL win totals at FanDuel:

• Buffalo Bills: 11.5 Wins
• Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 11.5 Wins
• Dallas Cowboys: 10.5 Wins
• Green Bay Packers: 10.5 Wins
• Kansas City Chiefs: 10.5 Wins
• Los Angeles Rams: 10.5 Wins
• Baltimore Ravens: 10.5 Wins
• Los Angeles Chargers: 9.5 Wins
• Denver Broncos: 9.5 Wins
• Cincinnati Bengals: 9.5 Wins
• Indianapolis Colts: 9.5 Wins
• Philadelphia Eagles: 9.5 Wins
• San Francisco 49ers: 9.5 Wins
• Tennessee Titans: 9.5 Wins
• Miami Dolphins: 8.5 Wins
• Arizona Cardinals: 8.5 Wins
• Minnesota Vikings: 8.5 Wins
• New England Patriots: 8.5 Wins
• New Orleans Saints: 8.5 Wins
• Washington Commanders: 8.5 Wins
• Las Vegas Raiders: 8.5 Wins
• New York Giants: 7.5 Wins
• Pittsburgh Steelers: 7.5 Wins
• Chicago Bears: 6.5 Wins
• Detroit Lions: 6.5 Wins
• Jacksonville Jaguars: 6.5 Wins
• Carolina Panthers: 6.5 Wins
• New York Jets: 5.5 Wins
• Seattle Seahawks: 5.5 Wins
• Atlanta Falcons: 4.5 Wins
• Houston Texans: 4.5 Wins
• Cleveland Browns: Currently N/A

New York’s win total of 5.5 ties the Seattle Seahawks for 28th in the league out of 31 teams (the Cleveland Browns are currently unlisted due to the uncertainty regarding Deshaun Watson). Only the Atlanta Falcons and Houston Texans have lower expectations than the Jets, each possessing win totals of 4.5.

Should bettors go over or under for the Jets?

The case for under

As optimistic as Jets fans may be for the upcoming season, the unfortunate reality is this: Getting 6 wins is a tall order for this franchise until it proves otherwise.

The Jets have exceeded 5.5 wins in only one of the past six seasons. This is despite having a preseason over-under of at least 6.0 in all but one of those years (2017, 3.5). Altogether, the Jets have gone under their projected win total in five of the past six seasons.

With that fact in mind, it’s no wonder that non-Jets fans aren’t bullish on the team’s potential. The Jets have fallen short of expectations too many times for anyone outside of the fanbase to believe in them until they make it clear and obvious that things have changed for the better.

The case for over

When looking at the improvements the Jets made across their roster in the 2022 offseason, it is not difficult to picture them improving by at least two games over their 4-13 record from a year ago.

Veteran additions like Laken Tomlinson, D.J. Reed, Tyler Conklin, C.J. Uzomah, and Jordan Whitehead plug holes that plagued the team in 2021. A draft class that features four top-40 picks should also make an immediate impact.

It is also worth considering that the Jets’ floor may actually be higher than their 4-13 record from 2021 might suggest. The Jets were one of the NFL’s unluckiest teams when it came to factors beyond their control, specifically injuries and fumble recovery percentage. Simply regressing to the mean in these two categories should add a win or two.

Ultimately, it’s up to each bettor to make their own decision, but there are a lot of legitimate reasons to think New York has a good chance of winning at least 6 games in 2022. At the same time, the Jets’ recent history suggests that it is probably best to be cautious about investing in their success until they prove they can be relied upon.