Picking at the corpse of Ohio’s bellwether status in presidential elections has preoccupied political scientists, journalists, and candidates for nearly six years.
The obsession with figuring out how Ohio strayed so far from the sensible center of American politics is understandable, as for more than a century the presidential vote in Ohio consistently came within a few points of mirroring the nationwide total. When Joe Biden won the 2020 election, it was the first time in 60 years a president was elected without winning Ohio.
To the naked eye, the presidential contest of 2016 changed everything.
In 2012, President Barak Obama’s popular vote totals against Republican Mitt Romney in Ohio differed by less than one half of a percentage point. Four years later, Donald Trump won the presidency but lost the popular vote by just over 2%. He won Ohio by nearly 8%. In 2020, the gap between Ohio and the national vote widened. Of all the 2012 bellwethers, only in Ohio did Trump do better in 2020 than he did in 2016.
But change had been brewing for more than 50 years. And since 1990, it has been hiding in plain sight, as Democrats have held the governor’s office a grand total of four of the past 32 years.
When it comes to understanding what happened here, U.S. Census Bureau and Department of Commerce statistics might be more telling than election results or polling numbers.
Government statistics prove Trump’s eight-point Ohio win in 2016 wasn’t some sudden lurch rightward. It was more likely a tipping point, the event that signaled Ohio is now a reliably red state still capable of producing the occasional Democratic victory.
By offering white, working-class voters a smorgasbord of lies that appealed to economic, cultural, and racial grievances real and imagined, Trump energized angry Ohioans who felt marginalized by a government that cared a lot about others, but nothing about them. Those voters, many of whom struggle to get by, are the essential core of today’s Republican Party, especially for the rapidly growing number of GOP candidates who dabble in falsehoods and extremism.
As is often the case in politics, pocketbook issues explain it all. Not since 1969 has the average Ohio worker earned more than the national average. Since then, the gap has widened.
In 2019, the last normal work year before the pandemic, per capita income in Ohio was $50,167. Nationally, it was $56,490. And while the gap is narrowing, Ohio is still below the national average in the percentage of adults without a bachelor’s degree or higher.
Ohio’s economic deterioration has been well documented by Bill Shkurti, a former state budget director who spent 20 years as Ohio State University’s senior vice president for business and finance. He and Fran Stewart, senior research associate at OSU’s John Glenn School of Public Affairs, have produced clear-eyed snapshots of Ohio’s economy, past and present, with hints of where aspects of the economy seem headed for the future. Shkurti cautions against expecting Ohio to regain its battleground status anytime soon.
“The disaffection of the white working class seems to be an ongoing thing,” said Shkurti. “This is all part of a 50-year trend, so changing it is not going to be easy.”
As for arguments that cost-of-living adjustments improve Ohio’s standing, the Shkurti and Stewart report suggests much of that is attributed to low housing costs caused by an abundance of supply and little demand, which “does not reflect a thriving economy” and happens in communities “where population and economic growth are stagnant.”
Democrats, of course, cannot be held harmless for the GOP’s success. Ohio’s been changing since Richard Nixon was a first-term president, so it would not have required much imagination to conclude large parts of their base might crumble.
Few know as much about Ohio’s political history as Mike Curtin, retired editor and associate publisher of the Columbus Dispatch, and Kyle Kondik, an Ohio native and author of one of the nation’s most-read political newsletters, published by the University of Virginia Center for Politics. Both have authored valuable books on the subject.
“Our slide since 1969 has had great consequences,” said Curtin. “Now our Statehouse is known for the legislature’s extremism. Ohio never had that reputation. It doesn’t serve us well and it’s not going to serve us well.”
Indeed, less than 72 hours after Curtin and I spoke, a story in the New Yorker by Jane Mayer detailed how gerrymandering in Ohio has created one of the most extremist legislatures in the country, an odious body that governs to the right of some states in the south.
But Kondik correctly counters that gerrymandering is responsible for only part of Ohio’s change, arguing fair maps would reduce the Republican majorities, not flip them to Democratic control.
“Republicans have dominated state government for three decades, and while they certainly have benefited from gerrymandering, that doesn’t explain the state zooming right in presidential elections since 2016, nor does it explain Republicans dominating the state level executive races since 1990,” said Kondik.
That leaves only DeWine and, on occasion, the Ohio Supreme Court, to keep the extremists in check. The court, led by Chief Justice Maureen O’Connor, has done its part. For the second half of his term, DeWine has not. As Mayer put it, a man long considered a centrist conservative “has increasingly capitulated to the party’s radical base.”
It is inexplicable.
Caving to the crazies is hardly worth the reputational price this governor is paying for the pleasure of Mike and Fran celebrating his 81st birthday at the governor’s residence.
Brent Larkin was The Plain Dealer’s editorial director from 1991 until his retirement in 2009.
To reach Brent Larkin: blarkin@cleveland.com
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