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Chicago soybean futures reversed sharp losses to close higher on Friday, as traders questioned a surprisingly large record crop forecast and focused instead on hot and dry August weather that threatens U.S. growing areas.
The U.S. Department of Agriculture's monthly WASDE report forecast domestic soy production at a record 4.53B bushels, and raised its soy yield estimate to 51.9 bushels per acre, the highest ever and more than analysts expected.
But the new WASDE forecast is based on U.S. crop conditions as of August 1, and traders noted the heat and dryness that have prevailed during the 12 days since.
After falling as much as 2.3%, CBOT soybeans for November delivery (S_1:COM) settled +0.4% to $14.54 1/4 per bushel, while December corn (C_1:COM) closed +2.3% to $6.42 1/4 per bushel, and September wheat (W_1:COM) ended -0.6% to $8.06 per bushel.
ETFs: (NYSEARCA:SOYB), (CORN), (WEAT), (NYSEARCA:DBA), (MOO)
Corn rose after the WASDE report cut its forecast for corn yields more than expected by analysts to 175.4 bushels per acre this year from 177 bushels in the previous forecast.
The report forecast higher corn yields than a last year in Illinois, Minnesota and South Dakota, but below year-ago levels in Indiana, Missouri, Nebraska and Ohio.
The world needs big U.S. crops to replenish global stockpiles that have been disrupted by Russia's invasion of Ukraine.