After a hot summer, the Farmer's Almanac predicts big changes in Louisville this winter

It's been a long summer in the Bluegrass State, with heat waves throughout the state and devastating floods in Eastern Kentucky. And if one historic publication's prediction for the winter is right, it may be a while before our long-term forecast clears up.

The Farmers' Almanac, an annual periodical that has been published since 1818, has released its weather predictions for the upcoming winter, and it predicts an "unreasonably cold, snowy" season for the Great Lakes region, which includes Kentucky, Wisconsin, Michigan, Illinois, Indiana, Ohio and West Virginia.

The Farmers' Almanac delivers its predictions with light-hearted asides such as "we are warning readers to get ready to “Shake, shiver, and shovel!“ and it stands by its record, claiming its predictions have an 80% accuracy rate.

Still, the National Weather Service in Louisville would advise readers to pump the brakes before buying a new winter coat. Meteorologist Evan Webb said short-term forecasts are much more reliable.

"To be honest, there isn't a whole lot of skill in seasonal forecasting," Webb said. "Generally, the signals are weaker, and you're looking at, you know, equal chances for above or below normal precipitation or above or below normal temperatures. And these are just very minor differences and probabilities, in most cases."

For last year's predictions:Got snow? Here's what the Old Farmer's Almanac predicts for winter 2021-22 in Kentucky

If the Farmer's Almanac is right, though, get ready to bundle up as we wrap up the year.

The publication's list of predictions is daunting, with expectations that "the first bite of winter should come earlier than last year’s." For the week of Jan. 16-23, for instance, it predicts "heavy rain and snow across the eastern two-thirds of the country" leading to what it said would be the "coldest outbreak of arctic air" in recent memory.

The Farmers' Almanac bases its long-range predictions around "a mathematical and astronomical formula developed in 1818," The Courier Journal previously reported. For those looking for predictions based around more modern science, though, Webb recommended following seasonal forecasts posted on the weather service's Climate Prediction Center, which offers a three-month outlook with probabilities of different temperatures occurring throughout the U.S.

The first three-month outlook with predictions about the winter, Webb said, will be published in September. In the meantime, according to the prediction center, temperatures over the course of the next three months in the Louisville area are more likely to remain "above normal."

Looking ahead, though, an oncoming winter with "unreasonably cold" conditions would bring its own set of issues, particularly for the city's homeless population. In June, as temperatures in the city frequently neared triple digits, shelters around Louisville issued a "white flag alert" to open beyond capacity. At that time, the city's Coalition for the Homeless reported such alerts were much more common in the winter.

Also read:'Deadly' heat grips Louisville, prompting warnings and fears for unsheltered population

The combined capacity at the white flag shelters is roughly 400 to 500 people. According to a 2021 Coalition for the Homeless census count, the number of people believed to be currently experiencing homelessness in Louisville exceeds 10,000. 

And according to the National Health Care for the Homeless Council, about one in 750 people experiencing homelessness will freeze to death every single year.

So, with a potentially freezing winter looming, the Coalition for the Homeless keeps a running list of organizations and their donation needs for the winter posted on its website. The main items include new clothes, camp gear, and hygiene kits.

And for the city as a whole, the Farmers' Almanac's report shows that Louisville's days of harsh weather may be far from over.